Social Predictions in Media: The Success Story of “Previsómetro Observador”
How a Social Predictions game hosted by a media organization anticipated a shift in Portuguese politics and created value for the business and its audience.
Introduction
Previsómetro, a political predictions game hosted by Observador, a leading media organization in Portugal, achieved an impressive 84% prediction accuracy rate and effectively predicted a shift in political power from left to right weeks before the polls.
In the process, it enabled Observador to deepen its engagement with its audience and subscribers around an important topic.
Previsómetro also delivered tangible business value, providing real-time insights for editorial content and political commentary across channels and formats, in addition to generating pageviews, social media impressions and newsletter reads.
Learn how it happened, what factors contributed to its success, and how you can leverage Polkamarkets Labs’ Social Predictions platform in your media organization.
Crowd-sourced insights vs. article comments: the power of prediction markets for media organizations
A media organization’s interaction with its audience is usually limited to comments below articles. This type of user-generated content rarely produces additional value to the article that they’re posted under. It also requires time-consuming and low-value-added moderation efforts from the media organization that hosts them.
Previsómetro proved that a media organization can generate immense value from the wisdom of the crowd simply by using Polkamarkets Labs’ recipe for Social Predictions, a gamified version of prediction markets. Efforts related to managing this engagement initiative are instead dedicated to high-value work, such as marketing, editorial, advertising and business development.
Social Predictions: the business- and user-friendly version of prediction markets
Prediction markets are well known to generate accurate predictions, consistently beating the accuracy of polls during elections, for example. The problem with prediction markets has been their regulatory status, as they traditionally require participants to bet real money to make predictions.
What makes prediction markets accurate is the fact that participants have skin-in-the-game. They do not require, however, real money to produce accurate predictions: as long as participants have something tangible to gain and something tangible to lose, they’ll act in their best interest and therefore tend to produce valuable insights.
Through partners, Observador provided exciting rewards to the 50 best predictors, ranging from 500€ gift cards to hotel nights and subscriptions. Participants were also ranked in a leaderboard in which their reputation was at stake. As a replacement to the real money that is traditionally used in prediction markets, participants started the game with 1000 VOZ tokens, which they then used to make their predictions in the markets. The goal was simply to accumulate more VOZ tokens by making accurate predictions.
This dynamic was available for Observador out-of-the-box with Polkamarkets Labs’ Social Predictions platform. Polkamarkets Labs’ expert team also provided project management support and guidance both in the contest structure, engagement and retention dynamics, and how to seize business opportunities related to the initiative.
Success that any media organization can replicate
Polkamarkets Labs’ partnership with Observador delivered tangible business results and proved that Social Predictions are a viable and valuable engagement medium for media organizations.
From this initiative, Observador obtained more engagement from its audience, generated more pageviews, social media impressions and newsletter opens, co-created valuable information and editorial content for the Portuguese society in tandem with its community, and expanded branding and placement opportunities for its partners.
As the first media organization in the world to host a Social Prediction game, Observador created original and ultimately accurate content that provided clarity during uncertain times. The organization was already reputed to be a leading news source and innovative company, and this initiative served to further strengthen its standing.
With Social Predictions, media organizations can maximize editorial content, audience interest and engagement and business opportunities in key moments for societies, such as elections, cultural or sporting events, geopolitical tensions, technological and scientific advancements, and more.
How to create your own Social Prediction product
Polkamarkets Labs’ Social Predictions platform can be adopted by any media organization worldwide. Through custom authentication that seamlessly integrates with existing platforms to customizable branding, domain configurations and data policies, Social Predictions can become an integral part of an organization’s digital presence.
Our expert team can support Product, Marketing, Subscriptions, Commercial and Editorial departments through the process of defining the overall strategy for your Social Predictions product. From choosing the right topics and moments, preparing the pitch for advertisers and partners, designing the marketing program to handling the technical integration.
Talk with Polkamarkets Labs today to learn more about using Social Predictions in your media organization.
About
Polkamarkets Labs
Polkamarkets Labs crafts solutions for social prediction market platforms. We specialize in developing social prediction experiences for brands, communities, creators, and companies, enabling seamless connections with their audiences through insightful engagements around future trends.
Talk to Polkamarkets Labs today and learn more.
Observador
Observador is a Portuguese digital newspaper known for its independent editorial approach and comprehensive coverage of news, politics, economics, culture, and sports.
Established in 2014, Observador has gained recognition for its high-quality independent journalism, featuring in-depth reports and critical analyses, as well as providing a diverse platform for opinions.
With a prominent online presence, and since 2018 with Radio as well, Observador has become a significant source of information for the Portuguese audience and one of the leaders in subscriptions.
