Weekly Radar (31 March, 2023)
--
Is Crypto ready for a bull run over traditional banks’ turmoil?
—
The recent collapse of three major US banks with close ties to the crypto industry has left many wondering if this is a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. Silicon Valley Bank, in particular, was a significant lender for tech startups and crypto companies. The collapse sparked a bank run, resulting in the withdrawal of $42 billion worth of deposits. Stablecoin issuer Circle also revealed it had $3.3 billion of reserves at SVB, causing USDC to lose its 1:1 peg to the US dollar. The collapse was due to poor risk management and unfavorable market conditions, with the bank investing in long-duration US Treasury bonds.
The collapse of crypto-friendly banks leads crypto companies to find alternative solutions to connect with the traditional financial system. However, the failure may have a silver lining, with Bitcoin rallying while bank stocks were tumbling. This could indicate that people are realizing the flaws in the traditional banking system and taking self-custody of their money as a valid alternative.
The collapse of traditional banks may also lead to an imminent change in the Fed’s monetary policies. The rapidly growing interest rates have played a significant role in this banking crisis, with US banks sitting on $620 billion in unrealized losses. As a result, the Fed has set up a $25 billion fund to help banks in case of liquidity issues to prevent further bank runs. And while the United States Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon, the markets anticipate the Fed’s decisions. That means even a slowing down or a pause in interest rate hikes would be interpreted as the signal of an imminent pivot. That would spark a positive dynamic among all risk assets, including crypto.
Besides the Fed’s more dovish policies, the anticipation of the Bitcoin halving, which will take place in the second quarter of next year, will also drive bullish sentiment in the market.
Considering all this, could we expect a crypto bull run wave, with BTC surpassing $40k in value by the end of Q2, 2023? The Polkamarkets community is bullish on this prediction, with the YES position currently priced at … GLMR at the time of writing. And whereas the outlook seems promising as BTC continues to hold at $27,000 levels with an immediate resistance level of $28,000, we should not forget that the currency is still trading almost 65% low from its all-time high. Such rich and diverse insights make this an excellent market for everyone to ponder.
Will Messi show his “culé” heart and return home to FC Barcelona?
—
There has been a lot of speculation about Lionel Messi’s future, with his contract at Paris Saint-Germain set to expire at the end of the current campaign. However, there are strong rumors that he might return to FC Barcelona, his former club. According to Sport, the president of FC Barcelona, Joan Laporta, recently met with Jorge Messi, Lionel’s father, to discuss a possible return to the club.
Despite some controversy over his performance at PSG, Messi remains one of the best football players in history. He scored a remarkable 669 goals for FC Barcelona and was a part of many of the club’s greatest successes, including ten La Liga championships and four Champions League titles. Messi’s potential return could lead to significant changes for the club, which has struggled recently.
The prospect of a comeback has sparked a lot of excitement among football fans worldwide, and they are eagerly waiting to see what will happen when Messi’s contract with PSG expires at the end of the season. Will he stay in Paris, or will he go back to his beloved FC Barcelona?
The Polkamarkets Community is quite optimistic, with the YES position currently priced at … MOVR. While the possibility of Lionel Messi returning to FC Barcelona is fascinating, nothing is certain yet; as we all know, PSG’s deep pockets can often be decisive in retaining its most valuable assets.
Under the Polkamarkets Radar
Is the clock ticking for a permanent ban on TikTok in the US?
—
Calls to ban the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok continue to grow in the US, with the Biden administration reportedly pushing for its sale. The app has been banned on work-provided phones in many federal, state, and foreign governments and some companies. The cybersecurity community has also raised concerns about the privacy and security implications of the app’s data collection practices, particularly with its ties to the Chinese government. TikTok’s privacy policy reveals that it collects a vast amount of data from users, including location data, data from the clipboard, contact information, website visits, and user posts and messages.
The US government is apprehensive about the Chinese government accessing data from TikTok’s 150 million users in the US. There are concerns about how the Chinese government could use the data to benefit its businesses and spy on individuals, particularly those with access to valuable information.
TikTok’s algorithm is also a concern, as it could be biased or manipulated to affect public opinion. If the US government decides to ban TikTok, it may be difficult to enforce for all its users. Any ban would likely begin with blocking the distribution of the app through app stores, but determined users could still find ways to download and install it. Forcing Apple and Google to change their phones to prevent TikTok from running would likely fail due to legal challenges.
With all this in mind, it would be interesting to see the Polkamarkets Community addressing this issue so that through their questions, we could all tap into the most likely scenario of whether TikTok will prevail or vanish from US territory.
About Polkamarkets
Polkamarkets is an Autonomous Prediction Market Protocol built for multi-chain information exchange and trading where users take positions on outcomes of real-world events–in decentralized and interoperable EVMs.
