Polkamarkets Labs
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Polkamarkets Labs

Weekly Radar (5 January, 2023)

Weekly Radar (5 January, 2023)
Weekly Radar (5 January, 2023)

Crypto experienced a rough year in 2022, with over $1.3 trillion in value wiped off the market and a 60% drop in the price of Bitcoin. In addition, the industry saw the collapse of stablecoin project TerraUSD and crypto exchange FTX, both provoking a series of shockwaves across the space, as well as a worsening macroeconomic climate. Some market players have predicted a volatile 2023. Interest rates keep rising, impacting the economy and so-called risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin.

All this uncertainty brings all flavors of Bitcoin price forecasts for 2023. Some uber-optimistic analysts, like the billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper, expect it to reach $250k by the end of the year (a rally of over 1400%). On the bearish end of the spectrum, we find investors like Mark Mobius expecting it to drop to $10k by the end of 2023. And then there are those like Laith Khalaf, financial analyst at AJ Bell, that no longer try to forecast Bitcoin’s price, citing the emotional nature of the market.

In the midst of these contrasting perspectives, the Polkamarkets Community landed a more reasonable goal by asking whether Bitcoin will end 2023 over $30k, roughly doubling its current price. Right now, the community is torn, with the YES position priced at 0.547 GLMR. Let’s (fore)see if 2023 will bring back the thrilling times for the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The stock market has seen significant losses in the past year due to various factors, including the Russia-Ukraine war, fears of recession, and Federal Reserve interest-rate tightening. All three major indexes experienced their most significant declines since the 2008 financial crisis. Growth stock investors have taken a beating, with certain ETFs and sector leaders plummeting by roughly 50% to 60%.

Analysts predict a moderate improvement in 2023. Some specialists state that the S&P 500 could advance by 12% to 4,400 from current levels in 2023, with support from cooling inflation and reopening prospects in China. Still, too much tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve poses a downside risk.

The Polkamarkets community is in line with the more optimistic outlook and believes the S&P 500 index will go up over 2023, with the YES position priced at 0.797 GLMR. Regardless of the current prediction, the S&P 500 serves as a good indicator of global economic health, making it an important market to pay attention to throughout the year.

The war in Ukraine is approaching its one-year mark and has already caused hundreds of thousands of casualties and forced millions of people to flee their homes. The conflict has had global impacts on energy and food supplies, resulting in inflation and shortages in vulnerable states. While the war does not seem likely to end anytime soon, there have been some recent signs of diplomacy, including a prisoner swap between Russia and the US, the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and growing pressure for peace talks.

We can highlight three primary factors that will likely impact the war’s outcome in 2023. First, Ukraine has succeeded on the battlefield, surprising many with its ability to withstand Russia’s invasion and regain territory. This has caused Russia to shift its strategy and target Ukraine’s energy and other civilian infrastructure. Second, the West’s continued support for Ukraine, including military assistance and financial aid, will be important in determining the extent of territory regained by Ukraine. Finally, the role of other actors, such as Belarus and Turkey, will also be influential in the war’s outcome.

On the other hand, Russia shows no sign of caving, digging deeper into its resources to maintain territory and prolong the war.

Will 2023 mark the end of this conflict? Is there a possibility for a peace agreement between the two nations? It would be helpful for the Polkamarkets community to address these questions and provide insights into this world-impacting question.

About Polkamarkets

Polkamarkets is an Autonomous Prediction Market Protocol built for multi-chain information exchange and trading where users take positions on outcomes of real-world events–in decentralized and interoperable EVMs.

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Polkamarkets Labs

Autonomous Prediction Market Protocol, an EVM protocol solution for the Polkadot Ecosystem. https://www.polkamarkets.com/