Weekly Radar (September 13, 2022)
The Annual GDP Index takes the pulse of the global economy, reflecting the circumstances and events that impacted our world during any given year. It can be hard to predict whether global GDP growth will be under 3% in 2022, making for an exciting market for you to weigh in with your wisdom. Note, however, that the baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1 percent last year, to 3.2 percent in 2022, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the forecast posted in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook. As of now, the Polkamarkets community seems undecided, leaning slightly towards a more pessimistic outcome (YES at 0.583 GLMR). But the volume in this market is still low (0.473 GLMR), and we are months away from closure (January 1st, 2023), so let’s keep an eye on its evolution.
When the world started looking at COVID through the rear mirror, Monkeypox erupted to give us the chills no one needed, and the inevitable question started popping up in people’s minds.
When the World Health Organization declared the global Monkeypox outbreak an International Emergency, more than 16,000 people, across more than 70 countries, had already been infected with the virus, although thankfully only five people had died from it, exclusively in Central and West Africa where the disease is endemic. Since the virus that causes Monkeypox is much harder to spread than the virus that causes COVID-19, specialists tend to agree that the chance for it to evolve into a pandemic is considerably lower. As of now, the Polkamarkets community seems to agree (NO at 0.555 MOVR), but we all know things can shift quickly and that reality can prove us wrong.
For years, Ethereum devotees have waited for the moment when ETH eclipses BTC’s market capitalization. Will the upcoming Ethereum Merge be enough to push “the Flippening”?
Around September 15th, 2022, Ethereum’s consensus mechanism will be changed from “proof of work” to “proof of stake.” Along with other improvements, this milestone will help Ethereum make progress on its commitment to becoming more scalable, secure, and sustainable. Although this transition will not directly impact the price of ETH, “The Merge” is expected to spur additional outside investment thanks to the estimated 99% reduction in energy consumption, which will make the network dramatically more sustainable. But will $ETH flip $BTC in market cap in 2022? As of now, the Polkamarkets Community thinks it is a far-fetched scenario (NO at 0.866 MOVR), in line with the more conservative forecasters, who believe that a spike in the price of ETH would also push BTC upwards. Make sure you keep tabs on this important milestone for the Web3 industry to see how it impacts its biggest actors.
Under the Polkamarkets Radar
How united will the United Kingdom stay after Queen Elizabeth’s departure?
Though millions across the world mourned it, many also saw the Queen’s passing as the start of challenging times for the unity of the United Kingdom and of the Commonwealth. Her death also came as a bitter reminder of the British Empire’s violent exploitation of countries, leading to renewed calls for reparations from former colonies. The Queen’s charisma, many agree, held things together, but King Charles III does not boast the same popularity. How will this affect the unity of the country? What repercussions will the Queen’s passing have on the UK’s foreign relations with its allies and former colonies? We’re eager to see if the Polkamarkets community will ask those questions.
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Polkamarkets is an Autonomous Prediction Market Protocol built for multi-chain information exchange and trading where users take positions on outcomes of real-world events–in decentralized and interoperable EVMs.