2018 Oscar Predictions
In what was a great comeback year for movies, the 2018 Oscars are here to officially tie a knot around things. Question is: After last year’s shocking events, are we in store for more surprises yet again, or a reversion back to typical Academy norms?
Isn’t it remarkable how much difference a year makes?
Heading into 2017 — thanks in large part to their rather lackluster output the previous year — the narrative surrounding the movie industry was one of immense angst and justifiable cynicism. The debate between television and film offerings had been the most lopsided in quite a while. Not to say movies were dead — far from it, actually — but it was certainly a more distressing stretch of mediocrity.
Then, like the ferocity of a Ricky Conlan haymaker, movies showed us they were cool again!
It started early, with February dishing out three distinctly pleasant films with the likes of The Lego Batman Movie (can someone explain to me how The Boss Baby scored a nomination over this?), John Wick: Chapter 2 (A f*****g pencil, man), and the year’s most remarkable success story Get Out (much more on this one later). The month then concluded with the 89th Academy Awards, which gave us perhaps the most astounding moment in it’s lengthy history with, well, you know.
All of this served as a harbinger, in a way, for what would be an exceptionally balanced, qualitatively strong year in movies. Now to formally conclude such a great year is, of course, the Oscars. Despite my historical infatuation with, rightfully, besmirching the ceremony for it’s toxic elitism, I am actually quite excited for this years show. As a result, I am compelled to give my own benighted predictions for the major categories.
These are those predictions.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees
Call Me by Your Name — James Ivory
The Disaster Artist — Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Logan — Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly’s Game — Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound — Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
We finally got one.
I have waited the better half of my life — which says a lot about me, honestly—for a superhero film to be acknowledged by the Academy. This year that dream came to fruition, and even more so since Logan was my favorite film of the year. It should’ve happened eight years ago, but now we have our first official prestige comic book film.
Sometimes there are cases where the nomination alone is suffice enough, and this is one of them. Logan won’t win the award Sunday night, but its inclusion is one fans should take note of—as it could be foreshadowing of the window being opened for other films of the genre being recognized (*whispers very whisperingly* Black Panther). As for who will actually win, I’d wager this race comes down to Molly’s Game and Call Me By Your Name, with the former mostly due to simple name-brand recognition.
Call Me By Your Name is clearly the favorite by a large margin, since everything lines up clearly. A screenplay win for one of the year’s most beloved and acclaimed movies, as well as being a nice lifetime achievement award for Ivory, makes plenty of sense. It’s also the only one of the bunch to be in the Best Picture race. This one is a lock.
Prediction: Call Me By Your Name — James Ivory
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick — Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out — Jordan Peele
Lady Bird — Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water — Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — Martin McDonagh
As much as I loved it, The Big Sick is the first cut here for being the only one of the bunch not also nominated for Best Picture; a bizzaro scenario in contrast to the aforementioned Best Adapted Screenplay category. Next off the board is The Shape of Water, which is certainly set for a big night, for having a bit of a wonky and rushed screenplay.
Between those three, I’m going with the exceptionally well-constructed job done by Jordan Peele for Get Out. I feel as though the film is poised for a lengthy lifespan in terms of conversation and rewatchability. It’s the kind that rewards viewers for picking up on the many nuances hidden underneath the film’s ideas, with genius world-building combined with intricately crafted characters. I could see Three BillBoards taking this one, but my gut tells me the polarizing views that have surrounded that film’s themes about race hold it back.
Prediction: Get Out — Jordan Peele
Best Director
Dunkirk — Christopher Nolan
Get Out — Jordan Peele
Lady Bird — Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread — Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water — Guillermo del Toro
I know that the Oscars’ penchant for making baffling decisions has been discussed ad nauseam, but the fact that this is Christopher Nolan’s first ever nomination is truly perplexing. Upon first realizing this, I looked like Donald Glover after he was handed a gold-plaited gun in the premiere of the second season of Atlanta this past Thursday.
Despite that, this year’s Best Director race is one of my favorites in recent memory. Not to get all PC on you folks, but the diversity on display here is awesome! How can you not appreciate that?
In terms of winning, however, I think it’s been set up for this to be a lengthy appreciation night for del Toro. His masterpiece might’ve objectively been Pan’s Labyrinth — a belief that will receive no dissent from me — so this feels like an overdue, career achievement sort of win. Fish sex, baby!
Prediction: The Shape of Water — Guillermo del Toro
Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige — Mudbound
Allison Janney — I,Tonya
Lesley Manville — Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf — Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer — The Shape of Water
I liked Allison Janney’s portrayal of LaVona Harding in I, Tonya, but I find it somewhat surprising to see how much of a landslide sweep of awards season that the performance has accrued. It’s great, don’t misinterpret me, but I don’t find it a particularly transcendent, or even memorable, showing relative to Janney’s career. She captured the same sort of demeanor most of her career has consisted of, but not the best in it; she’s great, just not particularly great.
It may not make any sense, but I’m going with an upset! I just can’t get Laurie Metcalf’s performance as a relatable, deeply sentimental mother in Lady Bird. I’d say the airport scene attests to just that. There’s more depth, and more variety, in Metcalf here than what was, essentially, a “Hey I curse a lot and then smoke to showcase how edgy I am” romp done by Janney. Geez, I’m starting to sound like I hate Allison Janney.
Prediction: Laurie Metcalf — Lady Bird
Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe — The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins — The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer — All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Firstly, a special kudos to Christopher Plummer for salvaging what is obviously a toxic situation with Kevin Spacey. The turnaround the film made — even thought it wasn’t a very good movie as a whole—deserves some kind of separate reward altogether. Also, a shoutout to Willem Dafoe for playing a role that felt especially different than the creepy, salaciously grinning image you might have of him for his performance in the criminally snubbed The Florida Project.
All this being said, I’m going with the old, tried-and-true saying once said by a great American philosopher, “Always listen to Woody Harrelson”:
Prediction: Sam Rockwell — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins — The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie — I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan — Lady Bird
Meryl Streep — The Post
Do you ever just sit there — in your room, alone, as you finish your 6th playthrough of The Last of Us — and find yourself laughing about how legendary Meryl “Overrated!” Streep’s career has been?
No? Well, you should try it sometime; it’s a really therapeutic experience from what I’ve been told.
Anyways, Frances McDormand has this one. Regardless of how you felt about Three Billboards, the performances were sensational. I’m personally rooting for Saoirse Ronan to win (why does being young disqualify you, exactly? Yeah, I’m a millennial and root for my kind, so what?), but I’m very much looking forward to the possibility of an unhinged, unapologetic and candid McDormand speech victory speech.
Prediction: Frances McDormand — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet — Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis — Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya — Get Out
Gary Oldman — Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington — Roman J. Israel, Esq.
It’s fair to assume that James Franco was left off the ballot after the sexual misconduct allegations surfaced against him. Amidst all this, it feels like Denzel Washington got himself a legacy pick as a result; a safe nominee to throw in the mix, even if somewhat out of place considering nobody saw the movie and those that did hardly had any high praise for it.
It’s also fair to assume that Gary Oldman has been throwing his entire fortune towards his Oscar campaign. Is it just me, or did Darkest Hour get advertised for like four straight months leading up to it’s release? I couldn’t watch a goddamn episode of Pardon the Interruption without hearing a heavily-bloated Oldman screaming “WE SHALL NEVER SURRENDER!!” like his gallbladder was about to explode.
Anyways, the Academy loves historical figures, and Churchill might be the epitome of that kind of role.
Prediction: Gary Oldman — Darkest Hour
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The battle for Gotham’s soul all comes down to this! A fistfight between the favorites (Three Billboards, The Shape of Water) and the peoples’ champions (Lady Bird, Get Out)! It does not get any better than this, folks.
Here’s the thing: Last year’s Moonlight victory was, by every measure, a bonafide miracle. La La Land not only had 14 nominations, but more importantly: It was the kind of film the Academy has historically drooled over — a celebration of Hollywood, with two major stars (Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone) and a star-caliber director (Damien Chazelle) to boot. By contrast, Moonlight was a small-scale, low budget (1.5–4 million dollar range), LGBT film with an all-black cast.
It was like the 2011 NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat. And in terms of the totality of Best Picture winners in Academy history, Moonlight looks like the 2004 Detroit Pistons — like a strange, yet lovable, aberration.
The dichotomy in narratives between those two projects can not be understated, which has resulted in many believing last year’s developments as a true breaking point. Just look at the 2017 voting body class the Academy proudly put on display; change is, albeit slowly, happening — and most, aside from the vocal minority of ignorant, “I Like to Act Like a Jerk and Then Attack People Who Call Me Out for Being a Jerk” troglodytes out there, are thrilled to see it. Will this continue? Will we get another inspired, against-the-grain winner on Sunday night?
Yes, we will. The 2018 Best Picture is going to be Get Out.
I fully understand, and appreciate, the myriad of reasons for why this is unlikely. The fact that no film with less than 5 nominations has won Best Picture since 1934’s Cavaclade should be reason enough to dismiss this prediction, I get that. But perhaps this just means we’re due for another surprise? Another reason to believe that, some day, my dream of an equally populist and artistically-merited Oscars will become a reality? Well, I can’t wait to find out.
The revolution WILL be televised.
Prediction: Get Out
