The @Mikecav5 Twitter Followers Guide to the Midterms: Governors’ Edition
Hello everybody. It’s me again.
You may remember the last time I wrote a piece for my good friend Mr. Pop was just after the 2016 election. I was not in the best place, so I wrote about one of the few things that brings me joy in life: Joel Embiid. Almost 2 years later, I am most definitely not in a better place, so I decided to, again, write about a topic that I both look forward to, but also causes me great angst: Elections.
Boy oh boy do we have a great slate of elections this November. From gubernatorial to house to senate to ballot initiatives to state legislatures, there’s something for everyone this November. I’ll try to make this fun and not boring because 1) if you’re not a nerd like me, who really cares ~that much~ about individual elections and 2) even if you do enjoy elections like me, you don’t want to read another boring analysis of the elections as much as I want to write a boring analysis of the elections. So, we’ll see where this takes us.
First up are the gubernatorial races. First thing we as a society have to do is agree on how ridiculous of a word “gubernatorial” is. Then we can begin to heal. There are 36 Governorships (9 Democrats, 1 Independent, 26 Republicans) up for election this cycle, with 14 open seats (4 D, 13 R). We’ll ease into this. This edition will take you through the gubernatorial races rated Likely or Solid for the incumbent party. Cook Political rates 11 seats as “Solid” one way or the other (3 D, 8 R), and 9 seats “Likely” (2 D, 7 R). I won’t write a lot about these races, but I feel a quick overview is warranted, so everyone is at least familiar with these races. I want this to be an intro to the races that are going on. If a particular race interests you, I encourage you to do more research on the race.
We’ll start with the Solid D seats.
California- (Open) Gavin Newsom (D) vs. John Cox (R)
Jerry Brown leaves his second stint as governor of California with a laundry list of liberal achievements that shows what can be done with unified liberal government without democratic infighting (cough cough New Jersey). These achievements range from aggressive climate action to gun control all while taking California’s budget from a $27 billion deficit when he took office in 2011 to a $9 billion surplus for this current fiscal year without sacrificing any liberal priorities.
There’s not much to this race. Gavin Newsom has been Jerry Brown’s Lieutenant Governor for 8 years.
John Cox has run for office 4 times before, including for president in 2008, and has lost all 4. He has also tried to get a ballot initiative, called Neighborhood Legislature, on the ballot each of the last 4 cycles. He could not even get enough signatures to get the initiative on the ballot. For an idea of how hard that is, here are some ballot initiatives that have made it on the ballot in recent years:
“Should Arizona give one random voter $1 million?” (Arizona 2006, defeated)
“Should Denver set up a commission to track aliens?” (Denver 2010, defeated)
“Should Castlewood abolish itself?” (Castlewood, VA 2013, approved-yes, a town voted itself out of existence in a ballot initiative).
Newsom leads in polls is around 10–15 points. RCP average has him at +19.3. Not much going on here.
Hawaii- (Ige) David Ige (D) vs. Andria Tupola (R)
Who remembers when there was a ballistic missile incoming at Hawaii? That episode and subsequent response and explanation caused a sharp decline in Ige’s approval rating, his Lieutenant Governor resigning over Ige’s incompetence, and a strong primary he narrowly avoided (Ige’s Lieutenant Governor actually endorsed his opponent). It’s a story we all can relate to. Famous person almost loses career due to Twitter mishap. Happens once a week nowadays. The entire missile situation was something else, but Ige won his primary and will be reelected to a second term.
New York- (Cuomo) Andrew Cuomo (D) vs. Marc Molinaro (R)
Once again, all the fun in this race took place in the Democratic primary. Cuomo defeated actress and activist Cynthia Nixon. Even though she did not win, Nixon did succeed in pushing Cuomo to the left and bringing light to the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC). Here’s a great IDC explainer.
Basically, a group of runaway Democrats started caucusing with the republicans and gave republicans control of the state senate and stalled a bunch of progressive legislation, and Cuomo gave a head nod and a wink and let it happen. Think of it like if someone lied and cheated their way to the presidency, and the political party of this person abandoned the morals they pretended to have and just let him do whatever because it meant more power for them. Could never happen in America, right?
The IDC is an infuriating, yet fascinating topic, and I encourage you to do more research on it.
A lot of IDC members went down in primaries this year, so democrats are in a good position to gain control of all 3 levels of government in New York and ~hopefully~ pass progressive legislation that has been stalled the last couple years.
Now let’s take a look at the 2 races rated “Likely D” by Cook.
Minnesota- (Open) Tim Walz (D) vs. Jeff Johnson (R)
Minnesota does this fun thing where the Democratic Party isn’t called the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. It keeps things fresh.
Tim Walz is the current representative for MN-01 since 2007, a former US Army Sergeant Major, and the front runner to be the next governor of Minnesota. He is being challenged by current Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson.
Hillary Clinton narrowly won here by less than 2 points in 2016, and former governor Tim Pawlenty declared he would run for governor again, making R’s hopefully that this could be a competitive race. But comments about how Trump is “unsound, uninformed, unhinged and unfit to be president of the United States” and withdrawing support for Trump after the Access Hollywood tape did not endear him to the republican base, and he lost the primary to little known Jeff Johnson. This recruiting failure for Republicans let this race slip away. It probably doesn’t help that Johnson’s home county of Hennepin voted for Clinton by 35 points.
Two September polls have Walz leading by 7 and 9.
Why the fuck did I write this much on the Minnesota race for governor?
Pennsylvania- (Wolf) Tom Wolfe (D) vs. Scott Wagner (R)
The most noteworthy thing to come out of this race so far is Alex Trebek moderating a debate and getting booed. Not a good look.
PA is another state where a recruiting failure decided this race before it really began. Scott Wagner is a two-term state senator who won his first term as a write in candidate in a low turnout special election.
Wolfe has been at 52–55% since the middle of August and should cruise to reelection in a state Trump won in 2016.
Those are the two “Likely D” governors’ races.
Next up are the Solid R seats.
Alabama- (Ivey) Kay Ivey (R) vs. Walt Maddox (D)
Ivey took over the governor’s mansion April 2017 after Robert Bentley resigned due to a sex scandal with an aide. Ivey served as State treasurer from 2003–2011 before becoming Lieutenant Governor in 2011 and is running for a full term after taking home 56% in the primary. This governor’s race is pretty boring. Ivey has held a large lead in the small number of polls of the race.
Maddox has been Mayor of Tuscaloosa since 2005 and that really the entire book on him. He’s relatively young (45 years old) and a good showing could open some doors for him. His name has been floated as a possible senate candidate in 2022. Richard Shelby (R) will be 88 years old and I can’t imagine him seeking another term. A 49-year-old Maddox could be an interesting senate candidate should republicans fail to recruit a strong candidate. It hasn’t even been a full year since Doug Jones took down Roy Moore here. I just needed to say that out loud. That’s all there is to this race.
Arkansas- (Hutchinson) Asa Hutchinson (R) vs Jared Henderson (D)
Hutchinson is seeking a second term for governor in red Arkansas. He served as DEA Administer for the Bush Administration before moving to Undersecretary of Homeland Security.
Hutchinson has polled above 60% in both polls of the race. Another boring race in a red state.
Jared Henderson doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page so clearly, we are in for a close race.
Idaho- (Open) Brad Little (R) vs. Paulette Jordan (D)
Meh another boring race. Let’s just rip through some of these boring races.
Nebraska- (Ricketts) Pete Ricketts (R) vs. Bob Kirst (D)
Well would you look at that. Two more white men running for political office.
Wyoming- (Open) Mark Gordon (R) vs. Mary Throne (D)
Some variety here. A white man and a white woman. Too bad the white man will win.
Texas- (Abbott) Greg Abbott (R) vs. Lupe Valdez (D)
At the beginning of Beto-Mania, talking heads thought that Beto fever might help Valdez close the gap against current governor Abbott. That has decidedly not happened. Polling has Valdez sitting at around 40% pretty much since April.
Valdez is the first Latina and first openly gay nominee for governor by a major party in Texas, which is a big milestone for deep red Texas. We continue to see demographics changing in Texas as the state becomes more diverse.
Vermont- (Scott) Phil Scott (R) vs. Christine Hallquist (D)
Despite Hillary Clinton carrying this state 56–29, Phil Scott remains a heavy favorite to win re-election. A pro-choice republican, and a self-described “fiscal conservative, left of center from a social standpoint” (doesn’t really roll off the tongue), Scott has carved out a nice moderate persona and looks like he will glide to re-election.
A poll commissioned by the Vermont Democratic Party recently showed Hallquist trailing Scott by 8 points, 50–42. We’ll see if other polls show the race narrowing before election day.
Massachusetts- (Baker) Charlie Baker (R) vs. Jay Gonzalez (D)
One of the most fascinating storylines in politics over the last 4 years has been Baker’s ability to carve his role as an ultra-moderate and stay incredibly popular in super blue Massachusetts. A recent study found that 68% of Democratic voters approve of Baker. Baker has been around 60% in all recent polls.
What is interesting about Massachusetts and Vermont is that they have two of the most popular left-wing US Senators, showing that they’re not afraid to vote for left-wing policies, yet they continue to back moderate Republicans. Idk fam.
Somewhere in an alternate universe, the Republican party became the party of Charlie Baker, Phil Scott, and Larry Hogan, moderate republicans who appeal to a wide audience. But, alas, they became the party of Trump.
Baker should cruise to reelection.
Last but not least are the 7 “Likely R”.
Maryland- (Hogan) Larry Hogan (R) vs. Ben Jealous (D)
Hogan is another popular moderate R in a blue state likely to win re-election. Former NAACP president represents the progressive wing of the state party and took down more moderate Rushern Baker II.
Some prominent state democrats have refused to endorse Jealous and some have even gone all the way and endorsed Hogan over Jealous. Feels like Maryland Dems should get their shit figured out. (Not that Jersey Dems don’t have their own problems-which we’ll get to in a different piece).
While this race will be closer than Hogan’s counterparts’ races in Massachusetts and Vermont, Hogan has been polling in the low 50s since June and Jealous can’t seem to crack 40%.
We have some more boring races in this bunch so let’s zip right through them.
Tennessee- (Open) Bill Lee (R) vs. Karl Dead (D)
Despite a competitive senate race in the state, the governor’s race is decidedly not competitive.
Arizona- (Ducey) Doug Ducey (R) vs. David Garcia (D)
Just like Tennessee, a competitive senate race did not translate to a competitive governor’s race. Ducey benefits from a -1 approval rating, incumbency advantage, and a weak opponent in Garcia.
South Carolina- (McMaster) Henry McMaster (R) vs. James Smith (D)
Meh. Boring.
New Hampshire- (Sununu) Chris Sununu (R) vs. Molly Kelly (D)
Republican Sununu won his race in 2016, while Clinton carried the state by .3%. Sununu enjoys a +39 approval rating and a lead in the polls, but a recent poll shows Sununu only up 5 against former State Senator Molly Kelly.
Hopefully we get another poll to see where the race stands.
Oklahoma- (Open) Kevin Stitt (R) vs. Drew Edmondson (D)
It appears that the teacher protests have had a significant effect on the political landscape of Oklahoma. I think this race is right on the cusp of thee Lean R category. Democrats got a strong nominee in former Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmondson.
Polling shows Stitt with a small, 3–4% lead over Edmondson. This is a race worth keeping an eye on the next couple weeks.
South Dakota- (Open) Kristi Noem (R) vs. Billie Sutton (D)
Another state that had one good poll for Dems, but no other polling, so who really knows what’s going on. Probably still firmly in the “Likely R” category, but something to keep an eye on if more polling becomes available.
Wow. There we have it. 20 of the 36 Governors’ races complete. And it only took me 2200 words. Boring races out of the way. Next up are the fun races. Stay tuned for that.
