2019 Oscar Nominations Predictions
It could be a shocking year for the Academy Awards
Let’s get the negative out of the way. This year has not been as great as last year. The quality of films haven’t been on the same scale, but that doesn’t mean we haven’t had some great ones. As always, I have not seen every film this year. I’m pretty sure no one has. But this isn’t what these predictions are about. I’m making these predictions based on what films I think will be nominated, regardless if I saw them or not.
Enough chit chat, let’s get to the picks.
Best Picture:
A Star is Born, BlacKKKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice
This is tough. Like stated above, hasn’t been that great of a year, so I doubt the Academy will go with 10 films. The only other film I could see sneak in is the Neil Armstrong biopic First Man, but it hasn’t gotten the love many thought it would have at the start of the year.
Best Director:
Adam McVay-Vice, Alfonso Cuaron-Roma, Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born, Peter Farrelly-Green Book, Spike Lee-BlacKKKlansman
This is the same nominees of the Director’s Guild Awards, which is usually a mirror image of the Academy Awards. The one I’m most hesitant about is Farrelly, who has directed mostly comedies his entire career. But if McVay could get in with The Big Short in 2016, after teaming with Will Farrell the majority of his career, why can’t Farrelly get the nod.
Best Actress:
Glenn Close-The Wife, Lady Gaga-A Star is Born, Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Olivia Colman-The Favourite, Toni Collette-Hereditary
The first four on this list are shoe-ins. The last spot was super tough for me to predict. Conventional wisdom says Emily Blunt will get in for Mary Poppins Returns, but I’m going with the career-best turn of Collette in the surprise horror hit Hereditary. God was she good in the movie.
Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born, Christian Bale-Vice, John David Washington-BlacKKKlansman, Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody, Viggo Mortensen-Green Book
Man, I would love to see Ethan Hawke get in for First Reformed, but I don’t see how there is any room for him. Hawke has been an actor long overlooked by the Academy Awards, which should help his case, but this is a great category.
I can’t kick out Malek and Bale; they both won Golden Globes. Cooper is the lead in arguably the biggest film of the year, Mortensen is in a feel-good Oscar-friendly film in Book. I could see Hawke stealing the nod from Washington, but I just can’t pull the trigger. BlacKKKlansman will be nominated for Best Picture and Reformed will not be.
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams-Vice, Claire Foy-First Man, Emma Stone-The Favourite, Rachel Weisz-The Favourite, Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
Yes, I guess I am not nominating Emily Blunt for any awards, when she got nominated for two SAG awards; Poppins and A Quiet Place. I just can’t see how the Academy won’t nominate Foy, who is riding high off of how great The Queen on Netflix has been.
Best Supporting Actor:
Adam Driver-BlacKKKlansman, Mahershala Ali-Green Book, Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Sam Rockwell-Vice, Sam Elliott-A Star is Born
This is a six-man race with everyone listed plus Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy. I think he has a long Academy-friendly career ahead of him, and the Academy will go with these five older gentlemen first.
Best Original Screenplay:
Adam McKay-Vice, Alfonso Cuaron-Roma, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara-The Favourite, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie and Peter Farrelly-Green Book, Paul Schrader-First Reformed
These five should be locked in a vault. They are good to go.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Barry Jenkins-If Beale Street Could Talk, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee-BlacKKKlansman, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters-A Star is Born, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty-Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Ryan Coogler-Black Panther
I hope Black Panther gets this nomination. It so deserves it. I would say this is a lock as well, but Black Panther is a comic book movie, and we know how the Academy feels about them.
