Iceland Election Update
The hyped Pirate Party government seems far more unlikely.
The past two weeks have all but diminished the possibility of a Pirate government. Plenty of international news has appeared over the possibility of the potential for the first Pirate government in Europe in the past week or so.
We have had 3 different polls recently showing the Pirate Party on the slide and the center-left Independence Party holding more ground.
Two of those three polls have been from Fréttablaðið, which have historically been less accurate than other pollsters such as Gallup and MMR. All of the polls have shown the Pirates percent of the vote shrinking from around 23% to 20%.
One of the more interesting things has been seeing the smaller right-wing, agrarian Progressive Party and the pro-European, reformist Bright Future Party rise in the polls. Bright Future (BF) has been below the five percent requirement to win seats for most polls, but the two most recent polls have BF within the range of being able to win seats. Our model thinks that Bright Future have just over five percent in the polls. Whether this holds until October 29th will be another thing.
Our current projection shows this:
