The 2018 Forecast: Regression to the norm(al)
It’s now just over two weeks into 2018, and we’d thought we should take the opportunity to look at the year ahead, and try and divine the future and set out a few predictions for what the year will hold. Hence the inaugural Post-Millennial Liberal Yearly Forecast. It’s worth noting that we use the word ‘Forecast’ in the loosest of terms, since this is not so much a calculated model of political events, rather a combination of a general grasp of the global state of affairs and a good dosage of second-guessing and wishful thinking. So without further ado…
The past few years have seen some pretty dramatic events in Western politics, to say the very least: age-old bipartisan politics has been dramatically rejected by the electorate, and this sense of disillusionment has been manifest in major upsets such as Brexit, the Trump Presidency, and the rise of right-wing nationalism. For 2018, we’re predicting a gradual return to the normalcy of yesteryears and a gradual swing back to establishment politics, aided in part by the continuing global economic growth seen at the end of 2017. 2018 will still have its big upsets — not least when it comes to the UK and the US — but the big picture will look a little rosier at the end of it.
The Trump Train runs out of steam
Here’s the first of our big predictions: America will have a new President by the end of the year. There is no denying that the biggest lesson we’ve learnt from the first 365 days of Donald J. Trump’s presidency is his incredible ability to weather crises and allegations that no other politician would be able to weather, partly due to his rather unorthodox tactic of creating an even bigger storm to distract people from discussing the current issue at hand. Eventually it will all come back to bite him, however, and with the Mueller investigation and the midterm elections coinciding this year, it seems rather likely that a negative outcome in either would be enough to turn GOP bigwigs against him.
The big question, then, is whether Trump will jump the gun and resign, or whether he’ll go down fighting and become the first US President to be removed from office after impeachment. We’re leaning towards the former, as it gives Trump a way out, and allows him to complain for eternity on Twitter, rather than potentially facing criminal charges (depending on the severity of the findings of the grand jury investigation into collusion/obstruction of justice). That being said, Trump enjoys a good fight — impeachment would, in his eyes, only validate his fight against the evil Washington establishment.
Brexit in name only
Possibly the most interesting moment of the Brexit negotiations to date was the mention of “regulatory alignment” to smooth over the Irish issue at the end of phase I of the talks. This was interpreted by many to mean adherence to the single market in practice, if not de jure, and the clarification from Theresa May that it would apply to the whole of the UK and not just Northern Ireland in an attempt to satisfy the DUP suggested that Brexit may turn out to be a lot softer than we thought. As attitudes cool, the influence of hard Brexiteers in the Conservative party will diminish, and as we approach 2019, the future deal may not actually differ that much from what has been proposed for the transition period.
This realisation will anger those backbenchers who feel that their Brexit has been sidelined by sneaky remainers within the government. Theresa May, having long been precariously perched in Downing Street, will bear the brunt of this anger, most likely in the form of a motion of no confidence. Having been toppled, the likely assumption would be that Boris or another of the prominent Leavers would take her place, yet given public opinion and their grasp of the situation, none will be forthcoming. This would leave the opportunity for a more moderate candidate, such as Philip Hammond, to win the leadership election and thus ward off the ‘inevitable’ Corbyn government yet again.
Labour’s position would no doubt be weakened by a more stable government, as the dream of entering Number 10 fades in the face of reality. Jeremy Corbyn has already faced off a major challenge to his leadership, but the underlying tensions within the party still remain, and a refusal to be drawn into a definite position on Brexit cannot continue forever. Whether 2018 would see both parties lose their leaders is too much to predict (even by our standards), but it remains a distinct possibility.
The renaissance of the European Project
The European Union has seen off a series of crises in the past decade, several of which could have led to its potential break-up altogether. Calls for further integration have only been strengthened by the likes of Brexit and the Eurozone crisis, and with the ‘power duo’ of Merkel and Macron presumably consolidated by the spring, a long overdue restructuring is on the cards, with more powers for the Eurozone and possibly a standardisation of membership arrangements — the idea of a ‘tiered’ EU is not a new one. To the disappoint of DiEM25 members, this is unlikely to lead to a radically reformed and fully democratic EU, however.
The EU will still face various challenges: it needs to determine its response to the violation of membership criteria by Poland, as well as assuaging the cynicism of voters who still flock to nationalist parties. Catalonia will continue to be a major headache for Spain, worsened by the renewed mandate of pro-Independence parties in the regional elections, but the EU’s stern refusal to involve itself in a purely ‘domestic’ matter has allowed it to avoid antagonising other separatist movements across the continent.
No World War Three?
A few things at least are certain in Asia: Putin will remain President, barring a major crisis; Xi Jinping will continue to consolidate his rule and maintain his iron fist on the Communist party, in the absence of a clear successor being anointed; and Japan, having overruled its constitution to allow its emperor to abdicate in 2019, will continue on its path to increase its power in the region and abandon Article 9 of its pacifist Constitution.
The surprise announcement of talks about the Winter Olympics has raised hope that Kim Jong-Un could once more be brought to the table, and dialogue with South Korea will see the warming of relations between the two countries. Should Moon Jae In be able to continue to moderate Trump through careful use of flattery, the threat of nuclear war could pass. (Needless to say, that would be a very good thing indeed, although it is perhaps undermined by its reliance on the restraint of a temperamental toddler who just so happens to occupy the White House.)
In the rest of the world, South America — except Venezuela — appears set to continue on its path towards stability, with elections so far devoid of any major surprises. Michel Temer seems set to crawl on until the end of the year, although there are serious doubts as to whether he will be able to pass his unpopular reforms the country needs. Maduro will most likely continue to preside over a country plunged into chaos, in the absence of major powers willing to intervene in the situation.
African nations still face many challenges, with the consequences of the Arab Spring still playing out in Libya, although the appointment of Cyril Ramphosa as the new leader of the ANC gives more hope that South Africa may be able to shake off the shackles of Jacob Zuma than the replacement of Mugabe in Zimbabwe by his loyal deputy, Emmerson Mnangagwa.
The power struggle for the dominance of the Middle East may be reaching the beginning of the end, as Saudi Arabia appears to gain the upper hand: Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, having come out as the undisputed kingpin after the corruption purges of last year, will continue on his path of modernisation, while the Iranian regime tries to regain its composure after the New Year demonstrations. The conflicts in Syria and Yemen will show no signs of ending, while the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is unlikely to abate any time soon, especially in the wake of the Trump administration’s antagonistic and rather undiplomatic decrees.
Agree? Disagree? Think this was an entirely futile exercise? (We do, but it was still fun regardless.) Feel free to comment below with your thoughts and predictions, and make sure to check back throughout the year to see exactly how much of this article does not come true.
