Douglas’ Pyramid of Piffle
Having just watched this review of @DouglasKMurray’s arguments against immigration, I’m left aghast at how simple the man’s understanding of labour and population dynamics really is. I mean, does the @Spectator magazine hire people of limited intelligence just to support their narrative?
He claims that using immigration to smooth out gaps in the demographic pyramid, just leads to an indefinite pyramid stacking model that will burst the country… and this is entirely flawed, and just gaslighting.
If there are labour shortages NOW in the 20–30yr demographic, it means we are simply missing people we can never replace with policy, due to trends in the indigenous birth rate.
Crucially, it means we can’t maximise our GDP as the labour shortages mean business creators, who are more likely in the 30–50yr age bracket, can’t create businesses, meaning the economy can’t find a big enough GDP to support all those in the 30–50yr bracket whom are already here.
This means two things, there will be a labour:
- shortage in the 20–30yr bracket
- oversupply in the 30–50yr bracket
So an open immigration policy will simply lead to an attempt to find the optimal population pyramid needed now, to support the kinds of businesses being demanded by the economy right now.
We won’t get loads of 30–50yr olds coming in over expanding the overall pyramid, which is what would need to happen for Douglas to be right, but what will happen is enough will come in for the 20–30yr bracket to sate the demand being generated by those business creators in the 30–50yr bracket.
Once this imbalance of pressures eases itself out, we won’t be left with any excess demand for labour in any age bracket, and immigrants will simply find it hard to come here and find excess labour demand, at any age.
Immigration is brilliant at smoothing out these pressures.
So Douglas’ claim of an indefinite cycle is utter gaslighting piffle.
It’s the same as his argument these immigrants get older implying this will lead to more problems. Sure they do, but not faster than the indigenous population is dying. So the older age brackets won’t burst as he implies, they will simply become business creators of the future that can employ our indigenous children, were labour shortages to have developed 30–50yr.
Either way round, immigration will simply ease future shortages in any age bracket, but does so in a naturally self limiting way. Meaning crucially that the overall pyramid will never expand as a whole, it simply corrects demand imbalances between different age groups.
As a related point, @Nigel_Farage’s argument allowing 20–30yr immigrants to come in lowers GDP per capita, is also gaslighting, and one believed by people as it is just a trick of statistics.
i.e. older people are generally paid more to do the same jobs, if you have 5 20–30yr olds earning £10 all employed as there is a shortage of them, and 10 30–50yr olds, with just 5 creating businesses earning £30 each, and the other 5, unable to fulfil their potential, earning £15 doing jobs below their age, you have a total income per capita of (5x£10 + 5x£30 + 5x£15)/15 = £18.33, but it you bring in 5 immigrants aged 20–30yrs, again earning £10 each, and that allows 2/5 aged 30–50yr earning £15 fulfil their potential and create businesses, upping their earnings from £15 to £30 each, you end up with an income per capita of (10x£10 + 7x£30 + 3x£15)/20 = £17.75… lower… yet everyone indigenous is earning more, the economy is bigger, what’s happened is we simply have more young people perfectly happy to earn less than 30–50yr olds.
So their argument is just a trick of the numbers. One that suits their narrative, and one no one that is allowed to share their platforms is intelligent enough to challenge them on.
For definite, policy needs to change to encourage the indigenous population to have more children, and to encourage them to train to be our doctors AND cleaners, etc, but if the indigenous population chooses not to do so, they can’t blame their demand for labour in the 20–30yr age bracket now, to support their desire to earn more as 30–50yr olds, to maintain a relatively far more affluent lifestyle than the country immigrants are coming from… on the immigrants we need to fill those jobs. It is entirely our indigenous faults for not having had enough kids, and if we continue to choose not too, we have no one else to blame but ourselves for becoming a minority, or earning less if we stop them coming there by meaning we create fewer businesses, and have to earn less.
Indigenous policy now, can’t fix either of these now, only immigration can, and it’s a naturally self limiting process of optimising the population pyramid, not one that indefinitely expands it, @DouglasKMurray is utter gaslighting.
