Year End Score Card
How Did My 2022 Predictions Go?
It’s pretty rare to see a follow-up to a predictions story that evaluates how well the soothsayer did with their foretelling. That’s why, in my final article of 2022, I’m reviewing the predictions from my first article of this year. So without further delay, let’s see how close to the mark I came in my Six Developer Predictions for 2022 article published last January.
Accelerated Go and Rust Adoption
I did pretty well with this one. Rust has become the main focus for systems builders and OS developers. Rust-based components will be part of the Linux kernel soon, and Microsoft Azure CTO Mark Russinovich has implored to his Twitter followers to ditch C/C++ in favor of Rust for new projects. Even the NSA recently recommended the same thing, but expanded the list of type-safe languages to include Go as well. The adoption of Rust and Go are even reflected in the best-seller’s list on the Pragmatic Bookshelf website. Hands-on Rust by Herbert Wolverson and Ricardo Gerardi’s Powerful Command-Line Applications in Go top the list.
Increase in Supply Chain Attacks
This prediction came right on the heels of the dreaded log4j vulnerability, and I anticipated it being the tip of the iceberg for this type of attack. Thankfully, the major repositories such as GitHub have not only been introducing new tools to more aggressively scan project dependencies and alert users of known vulnerabilities, but have also recently introduced a way to accelerate the discrete reporting of vulnerabilities to code authors. In addition, Google, Red Hat, and other tech company leaders have made efforts to recognize the often thankless contributions made by developers supporting libraries used by commercial and open source projects around the globe. Thanks to these combined efforts, the supply chain problem didn’t spiral out of control in 2022. However, vigilance is still required as black hats figure out more devious ways to circumvent the implicit trust built into the existing software project dependency model.
Python Becomes the De Facto Machine Learning Language
This prediction came pretty close the mark. Even game programming guru John Carmack recently mentioned his increased use of Python for his own machine learning projects. Additionally, books, posts, and videos on the topic of using Python for all things AI have skyrocketed over the past year. While Python has yet to be crowned the official AI language of choice, it is certainly being recognized across the tech sector as the go-to language for AI efforts.
The Metaverse Gets Renamed
The Metaverse didn’t get renamed, but the term has become the pariah of the tech industry, synonymous with NFTs. While Mark Zuckerberg's attempt to out-innovate Apple and other AR hardware providers is admirable, it may be a case of too little too soon. Meta’s latest headset is an expensive proposition with limited use cases. No one wants to wear these headsets more than they have to. The headsets are bulky, uncomfortable, eye straining, and headache-inducing — more akin to a torture device than a tech innovation. No doubt efforts will continue to iterate and perfect the hardware, but the Metaverse and related tech products may end up in the same bin as 8-track tapes and 3D televisions.
Windows Waivers
Microsoft journalist Paul Thurrott recently posted an article that lamented while Microsoft’s revenues grew 11 percent in the last quarter, Windows growth stumbled badly. Microsoft blamed the slowdown in PC sales as its primary reason for faltering. In addition to the drop in PC sales, alternative devices — beyond Android and iOS smartphones — are using Linux instead of Windows. One such example is Valve’s impressive Steam Deck hardware powered by Arch Linux. The conversion of both recent and older desktop and laptop PCs to fully supported Linux distributions continues. Those converting report that they won’t run Windows 11 due to its arbitrary restrictions. That recipe will brew as Microsoft continues to explore supplemental sources of revenue via ads, in-your-face subscriptions, and other recurring nightmare interruptions.
Innovation Thrives
This is a difficult prediction to evaluate, since most of the innovation is still percolating, and the results of these efforts are still years in the making. A whole new generation of digital natives are in school today, unencumbered by legacies and technical debt. The next generation doesn’t face the same factors that weigh down current day-to-day IT workers. I remain bullish and highly optimistic that new innovations will change the world in ways most of us have yet to imagine.
Stay tuned for next month’s article, where I’ll predict what developers can expect in 2023!
Be sure to pick up a copy of Portable Python Projects by Mike Riley, available from The Pragmatic Bookshelf. Join the conversation on DevTalk to find a promo code that will save you 35 percent on the ebook.
