The Predictive Power of Pre-PG Daily Tests

We were highly predictive of ranks in 2018. Why it matters.

Arjun K.


We collected test IDs around early January 2018 to analyze the predictive power of Pre-PG tests. Over 6,200¹ Pre-PG users sent us their identification information, and we analyzed how predictive our daily test series was of the NEET 2018 rank.

The results are in

We found a very strong correlation between the daily test percentile and NEET PG 2018 percentile². We only considered Pre-PG tests within the last three weeks before the NEET PG. This regression formula is

NEET PG 2018 Percentile = 0.71 x Pre-PG Daily Test Percentile + 0.29
Coefficient of Determination (R²) = 76%

The equation tells us 2 things:

1.We were highly predictive for higher percentiles. We found that nearly all the doctors who were in the top ranks of our daily tests are also within the top 2 percentile in NEET PG 2018. You can visually see this in the graph. For example,

One of our regular users, Dr. Shiralee Runwal, who was consistently in the top 10 ranks (higher than 99.8 percentile), informed us that her score in NEET PG was 929 (higher than 99.9 percentile).

2.We underestimated the expected result for average percentiles. If your performance is below the 90th percentile in our daily tests, you are likely to do better than what you score on our tests. For example,

If you get to 80th percentile in our tests, you would have most likely got closer to 85th percentile in NEET PG 2018. One of our users told us that she was consistently scoring around the 75th percentile in our tests and got a score of 508, which translates to 82nd percentile.

Why is this happening? We believe this is because doctors who use our platform are more serious about preparation compared to the overall population of doctors who take the NEET PG.

In the last two weeks before NEET PG, we started preparing daily mini-tests with 100 questions. These tests alternated between low, medium, and high difficulty. We have found that the difficult tests had the best coefficient of determination.

For difficult tests, the coefficient of determination (R²) increased from 76% to 84%. The better R² for difficult tests is consistent with our evaluation that NEET PG 2018 was a difficult test!

Why does it matter?

Why does this matter for you with several months to go before the next test? Here’s what you gain if by regularly taking the tests:

Track your position and progress: Know where you stand in each subject relative to a representative population of test takers. Know how you are progressing over time by regularly taking the daily tests. Don’t be surprised if your performance regresses relative to others in areas you are not focusing on. Remember that as you are preparing, so is everyone else and the quality of competition keeps improving over time.

Test yourself with the latest questions: We try to use the least attempted questions, usually the latest ones we have uploaded for the test series. Dedicating some time to regularly taking the test series is an excellent workout.

Build your test-taking muscle: Competitive exams like NEET PG don’t just test your concepts, they also test your ability to be fast and accurate while you are under pressure. There is no substitute to practice for developing this muscle.

Improve on your weaknesses: Your test performance is a place to judge topics where you are weak and improve on those weaknesses. Our test analysis gives you a direct link to the four weakest topics to start improving on.

Use Daily Test results to identify your weaknesses

So what are you waiting for? Take today’s test now on the app or the web.

Thoughts, comments, or feedback? Please email us.

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[1] A lot more users responded, but several users sent us Candidate IDs instead of Roll Numbers, mostly because our instructions were ambiguous

[2] We modeled the expected percentile based on ranks. This is a summary of our latest model results:

Pre-PG Prep’s percentile estimator