10 Rules for Artificial Intelligence Predictions
How to rise above the AI noise
When trying to predict the future of AI, a few rules must be abided by, lest one be considered “frothy around the mouth”, as I was once described by a technologically-challenged executive in his 60s (compliment taken). Below are a few principles to consider when trying to predict the future of AI in any way, shape, or form.
1. We overestimate the effect of Artificial Intelligence in the short run
The first part of Amara’s law (echoed by Bill Gates) is the most relevant in the digital age as we’re won’t to abandon ourselves to flashy headlines and clickbait, especially when it comes to AI-induced automation.
Indeed, there has been a slew of research projects making a wide variety of predictions about automation-caused job loss, but those predictions differ by tens of millions of jobs, even when comparing similar time frames. This is irresponsible as new legislation might use any one of these predictions as a base for new laws, and ought to be using accurate calculations. In fact, most workers should not be in full panic territory just yet: automation will come in three distinct waves, and we’re only riding the first one. Data analysis and theoretically simple digital tasks are already…
