4 Archetypes, Shell, 2x2: Top Three Scenario Planning Methods Explained and Compared

This story was translated into Italian

In this article I will attempt to lift the very thick veneer of confusion, often found in online reports, practitioners guides, journal articles, and futures & foresight videos and courses, about three major scenario planning methods: the 4 archetypes method, the Shell approach, and the 2x2 matrix. I will demystify and explain how the scenario narratives creation process is carried out with these methods using evidence. I will compare them and explain when, based on my personal experience, you should use which method. I’ve chosen these methods as they are arguably the most widely used but also misunderstood scenario planning methods. They also have a lot in common, despite the fact that the 4 archetypes is often considered an “alternative futures” technique rather than a “scenario planning” technique. Indeed, they all aim at exploring the limits of plausibility of the future, they all aim at creating explorative rather than normative scenarios (although they can be used normatively); and they all aim at increasing awareness and learning about possible futures to mobilize action in the present.