The days of war in Ukraine: Five lessons in minimizing the impact of avoidable conflicts

Dimitris Vayenas
Predict
Published in
18 min readMay 14, 2022

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Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine I am trying to make sense of the war effort by following the Russian propaganda; thus, I have focused on the available — at times obscure — sources of our adversaries. From RIA-Novosti to various obscure bloggers reporting the “successes” of the “special operation”. Obviously, as a subscriber/reader of The Financial Times, The Washington Post and Medium, I cannot escape our own propaganda, but I have put an effort to avoid our own “echo chamber”.

Image from the Radio Free Europe — more relevant images here: https://www.rferl.org/a/24934238.html

Experienced analysts could sense from the first days the poor Russian performance. It took the Ukrainians, with limited help from the West to reveal that the “Emperor was naked”. Strategy directed mainly to propaganda rather than result, outdated war wagging tactics and thoughtless logistics, poor communications, lack of motivation, even mere material failures (possibly to due endemic corruption in their military hierarchy) lead many experts to conclude that regardless of any current gains, the long-term impact of this “special operation” will offer a severe blow to the Russians.

My history in helping Ukraine.

Many of my friends feel compelled to share their support to our allies with flags, charitable contributions, advocating for the…

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Dimitris Vayenas
Predict

Ageing researcher of Theoretical Computer Science trying to model & quantify opacity based at Exeter College, Oxford