AI Meets Delphi: Applying the Delphi Method Using LLMs to Predict the Future of Work
Imagine a world where Aristotle chats with Einstein, and Hypatia debates Marie Curie, all around Plato’s metaphorical round table in his Symposium. Yet instead of debating face-to-face, the experts remain anonymous, interacting only through a moderator who summarizes their views. This simple twist minimizes the biases of group dynamics, allowing opinions to be judged on merit rather than reputation.
This is the essence of the Delphi Method, a systematic, structured communication framework that taps into collective “wisdom of crowds” to navigate the labyrinth of uncertainty and reach a consensus on complex problems. Developed in the 1950s by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the RAND Corporation, the method is named after the Oracle of Delphi, an ancient Greek priestess renowned for her prophecies.
The Delphi Method is a versatile tool, employed in fields as diverse as healthcare and defense. It involves multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts to predict future outcomes or reach consensus on complex topics.
Each Delphi method round begins when experts respond to a questionnaire, justifying their judgments. The moderator/facilitator aggregates these perspectives and returns a summary to the panelists. Each round improves the group’s…
