An Impending Coup D’État? Will Biden Be Replaced?
Before I begin, I am not necessarily predicting that Biden will be replaced as the Democratic Nominee in 2024. Rather, this is an analysis of the likelihood that Biden will be replaced, the challenges of replacing him, and the benefits of such a move. Since the release of the Department of Justice’s report, both the clamoring and speculation of this hypothetical has increased. So, how would the situation unfold if Biden was replaced?
There are two different scenarios wherein the Democrats would be able to replace Biden. The first of these scenarios is through governmental institutions. Whether it is the 25th amendment or simply resigning, Biden leaves the White House and Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States. This scenario, while perhaps the easiest for transition, is highly unlikely. For Biden to acquiesce to leaving the White House, he would want to leave on his terms. This means resignation would be off the table; unless, if he does not mind his legacy being linked to the only other President to resign (Nixon). Without Biden’s approval, the 25th amendment in the Constitution would allow the Cabinet to replace Biden. In an election year where the Democrats are trying to win the White House, simultaneously replacing Biden and defending his record could prove too difficult and thus disastrous at the polls. These scenarios would also assume that Kamala Harris would be an upgrade when it comes to winning the Presidential Election.
The other scenario for him being replaced at the ballot box. Instead of being a nominee for the 2024 election, Biden bows out “gracefully”. This would allow the Democrats to select a new candidate, defend Biden’s record, and allow the President the dignity to finish his term as he sails off into the sunset. Due to these factors, we will suggest that if Biden is replaced as the nominee, it will likely be this route. This is not to say that this scenario will have its own issues.
The first is timing. On one hand, this is terrible timing if you want the next nominee to be selected through the primary system. Most of the states will be voting in March and the deadline to be on the ballot has passed (Hall 2024). For those in the political elite, however, the timing works just fine. Since Biden will not have any significant challengers, he should win all of the delegates. If Biden were to release all of his delegates, then they could choose the next Democratic Nominee in Chicago. While the nominee selected by the primaries would have more legitimacy, bypassing the primaries skips tumultuous debate and uncertainty.
This, for the Democratic Party’s elite, is a boon on two fronts. Replacing Biden with a better candidate increases their party’s odds of winning in November and, in theory, a smooth transition. In theory, there is no bitter infighting from 10+ candidates, no resources wasted, and no bruised egos. Instead, a party is unified by one figure; the next nominee. This brings us to the first challenge, who should that nominee be? Kamala Harris would be the obvious choice as Biden’s Vice President. But if the goal is to replace Biden with someone better, we must ask is Kamala Harris better? Except for the recent drop in Biden’s approval ratings, Biden has consistently had higher approval ratings than Harris; even with the recent drop in Biden’s approval ratings, Harris is not doing better than Biden (Stiles, Murphy, and Martinez 2024). In fact, if Harris was popular and a likely upgrade to Biden, it may have been better to allow her to run in the primaries for additional legitimacy. But since Harris is likely a detriment if she were on the top of the ticket, it may be wise for the leadership to look elsewhere.
According to the oddsmakers, the other candidates with odds are, from the best to worst, Former First Lady Obama, Governor Newsom, Congressman Phillips, Secretary Clinton, Senator Warren, Governor Whitmer, and Senator Manchin. While Michelle Obama has the best odds, except for Biden, it would seem unlikely she would want the job in a similar vein as General Sherman (Shabad 2016 & Sherman Quote). This would leave Newsom as the favorite, even with better odds than Harris. But, with its insistence on identity politics, would the Democratic Party eschew the first Black Woman Vice President for a White Man? Going down the list, there are questions with issues with nearly every candidate. Both Warren and Manchin would alienate factions within the Democratic base. Does the elite want a repeat of the 2016 matchup with Clinton leading the ticket? Phillips has no chance in a convention and only has any odds of winning because he is the only candidate running against Biden in the primaries. Whitmer does not immediately draw the same issues, but in an open convention can she win the support of the delegates?
Which brings us to one of the big issues. If you leave the nomination in the hands of the delegates, there is a risk of chaos on the floor. Maybe if the elite and the media get behind a candidate, the delegates will back the eventual nominee immediately. Then again, perhaps one or two factions will rebel. Perhaps there are a few opportunists who throw their name into the race. Not only do we not know what would happen, but we also do not know the reaction of the people. The last convention that was rancorous was in 1968 with the Democrats (which also took place in Chicago), a convention that led to the creation of the primary system we have today. While there were chaotic conventions before 1968, those conventions happened in a different era when the convention was the only mechanism to win the nomination. A chaotic convention invites disaster, which the elite would likely avoid at all costs. But this is not even the biggest issue with Biden being replaced.
The biggest issue will be the President himself. This presidency is Biden’s legacy. His years in the Oval Office will culminate a legacy that includes 36 years in the Senate and 8 years as Vice President. If Biden walks away now, this could harm his standing in the minds of historians. And if he walks away now, he walks away from 40-plus years of climbing to the mountain top, a mountain top he actively tried to reach two times before 2020. A mountain top that was denied to him in 2016 by Hilary Clinton. Whether it is a need for duty or ambition, it is hard to see anyone pry the Oval Office from his hands. So for him to leave, he would need everyone to tell him it is time to go. While I will not speak about the role his family would have or would want to have, let us examine those who are in power due to Biden.
If you are a cabinet member who holds their office due to Biden, if you are a donor close to Biden, or if you have influence due to your connections with Biden, would you want Biden to leave? Your power, influence, and connections exist because Biden is at the head of the table. If you replace the head of the table, your seat may be replaced as well. Whoever replaces Biden, would want their people in power. Perhaps those who have power under Biden can make a deal with the successor as well. Perhaps those who have power under Biden can join the successor’s camp when the time is right. But do those power brokers want to deal with the chance of losing power or prestige or would they rather keep the status quo? Would they rather Biden remain in the Oval Office, despite the Department of Justice’s report on his mental acuities, or see a brawl break out in Chicago… again? Due to resistance of those around Biden for Biden actually leaving, it is unlikely that Biden would be pushed out unless Biden (or his family) deem it the correct move or the wave to replace him is so strong, that he eventually falls off the boat.
Yes, there are benefits of replacing Biden. But each benefit comes with a caveat, which is risk and uncertainty. Due to institutional reluctance and the elite’s fear of anarchy, a change is unlikely to happen. But then again, we only know when a coup d’état is successful if the rebels take the castle. In this case, we will not know until August 22nd when the nominee gives the final speech in Chicago.
