Code Red For Humanity
Code RED, it’s frequently used to depict important things or dangerous things, and the final place where we have heard about it is about HUMANITY. The IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has presented its 6th assessment cycle before the UN and its alarming. Now, let’s break these into small topics for better understanding.
We have seen many future predictions based on the latest technology, flying cars, transparent smartphones, etc, and developing towards glory. But the future might be not as well as we expect it to be.
What is IPCC and Is it trustworthy?
It was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. It consists of 195 member nations. The report is more based on more than 14000 studies done in the previous years. Assessment report 6 is one of the 3 reports of its series. The other two will be released in the next two years.
We have seen scientists changing their opinions more often so this shall also be one right? Well, the chances that these predictions are wrong is well around 1%. The Assessment Report(AR)6 has used several recently instigated satellite measurement techniques compared to its predecessor reports. For example, utilizing the global navigational satellites to get temperature and humidity measurements. The climatic models made have also significantly improved. Past climatic trends have also been studied for preparing these models,
What are the Findings and Conclusions?
“It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.”
We are to be blamed.
The increase in the emission of greenhouse gases has resulted in higher temperatures globally. This is not something that only the US or China did, all the nations have their contributions in the present scenario. Naturally occurring changes are still there, the frequency of the incidents and the intensity are increasing year by year. In the chart below human influence is clearly visible.
The Human influence has depleted the ice sheets and snow cover in the northern hemisphere. The precipitation rate has also increased since the 1950s. The recent decade was one of the highly warmed ones in around 6500 years. The rise in surface temperature from 2016–2020 is the hottest five-year period since 1850. The frequency of marine heatwaves has doubled along with the cyclones. The depletion in the ice sheet and glaciers have increased sea level.
You might be thinking these are just mere numbers and scientific data. Well, Things are not as expected, The heatwaves in Canada and the US were a one in a 100-year event but it was induced by Global warming. Natural Disasters happen every year but when we have a close look at these data for a period of time, it's clearly visible that frequency and intensity are increasing at an alarming rate.
Possible Future
The temperature will continue to rise till even if severe cuts on the emissions are made, will rise to 1.5-degree celsius and if steep cuts are not done then by end of this century it will be 2-degree Celcius. Due to this, there is a possibility of rapid change in climate as the ice caps are melting at a higher rate than in previous years. The green gas emission from the 1750’s already committed the global ocean to future warming, ocean acidification, ocean deoxygenation and will continue to increase. There will be large changes in the rainfall pattern as a result of abrupt ocean currents. The coastal surges which happen once in a century will soon be seen every year from 2100. You can see how it will change in the coming years using the Sea level Projection Tool by JPL NASA.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool
How will it impact India?
Here in India, we have a unique situation. In Delhi where the pollution rate is high due to the presence of aerosol, which scatters solar radiation. The evaporation rate is decreased and thus masking the effect of global warming. But when this effect weakens, the temperatures will get scorching and monsoon rains will increase in quantity.
The glaciers in the Himalayas will decline by two-thirds. The frequency of the heat waves will increase, extreme rainfall especially in Southern parts of India. By the end of the century, the sea level will rise by 76 cm exposing millions of the coastal lines to erosion, floods, etc.
We will experience a long hot season and shorter cold season along with changes in precipitation, flooding, and drought occurrences which will make the agriculture sector in real danger.
What all can be done to slow it down?
At this point, disasters cannot be prevented rather we can slow down and decrease the impact. The Paris agreement goals would be breached but the governments should impose strict restrictions to reduce the margin. Cutting off greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants like methane aerosol should be done. As we are the world's third-largest methane emitter. The developed nations agreed to give financial assistance to developing nations around 10 years before which is still not available to us. The climate summit COP 26 will be the major lookout as we hope our world leaders will take bold steps to tackle this catastrophe.
On an ending note, We should understand that we are the ones causing these disasters. The definition of natural and man-made disasters is becoming the same. Some people still believe that climate change happens naturally and we can't do anything but times have changed, Our small actions could play a big role, Raise your voice on these issues so that our beloved governments open their eyes to do something worthwhile. The economic sector will have a severe impact when these measures are implemented. The deflation we are facing due to covid is in another hand. The policymakers will have a tough time devising plans in such a short time too. Let's hope for the best.
