Gaza, so Small But so Important, Why?

I’m sure you’ve come across many news about the Israel-Hamas war. This conflict contains serious changes that will affect regional interests and, consequently, global players. It’s surprising how a tiny region like Gaza can have such a significant impact on various issues.

Puppet

A lot of Arab countries have fought against Israel multiple times in the past and have been defeated. No one wants to threaten a new war against the Israeli army, which boasts one of the most modern armies in the region and has the support of the United States. Nowadays, wars are often fought through terrorist organizations. Hamas, situated within Israel, is an invaluable opportunity not only for Iran but for all of Israel’s enemies. The prolonged inability to resolve the Gaza problem turns Hamas into a long-term, reliable puppet. We’ve seen Iran causing harm to Israel through Hamas multiple times. The timing of the current Hamas attack is no coincidence; Iran is taking a sort of revenge for its defeats in the region.

2. Karabakh War

The pipeline from Azerbaijan and the planned extraction of gas from the Eastern Mediterranean are crucial sources for reducing the EU’s dependence on Russia. After the start of the war in Ukraine, the EU demanded twice as much Azeri gas. Azerbaijan calculated that the EU would remain passive in the Second Karabakh War and strategically used the situation. Israel, supporting this war both militarily and politically, turned Azerbaijan into an ally in the north of Iran, opening another front against its main enemy. The Zangezur corridor, connecting Azerbaijan and Turkey through Armenia, was not desirable for Iran because it would reduce its dependence on Iran for both Turkey and Azerbaijan. However, since Iran couldn’t exert influence in the region either militarily or politically, it didn’t achieve any gains here.

The Karabakh War also led to the resurgence of Israel-Turkey relations. Despite the deterioration caused by the Palestinian issue, the two countries found themselves on the same side thanks to Azerbaijan. This situation can be considered an additional defeat for Iran.

While Iran is crushed under U.S. sanctions, the increase in exports by other energy-rich countries in the region also stands as an economic defeat for Iran.

Eastern Mediterranean

The natural gas identified in the southeast of Cyprus has not been realistically evaluated due to both continental shelf disputes and economic reasons. Plans to connect it to the mainland through Greece couldn’t be realized, partly due to Turkey’s occasional interventions with warships and the high cost of the project. The final blow came when the U.S. withdrew from the project, confirming its demise.

When Turkey-Israel relations improved, the Eastern Mediterranean immediately came to the forefront. The idea of connecting the gas from Israel to Turkey envisaged a more economical and geopolitically secure project, as it would shorten the pipeline and eliminate the possibility of intervention by warships from third countries. Netanyahu’s planned visit to Turkey in the summer was canceled due to health issues, but Erdogan and Netanyahu met in September in New York. The determination for Netanyahu’s visit was reiterated, and it was discussed that the visit was expected to take place in October-November.

The visit was postponed due to Hamas’s attack, and Israel’s economy suffered damage due to the war. Iran, through Hamas, delayed the strengthening of Israel and Turkey in the region, preventing them from surpassing its influence.

Oil Price

Keeping oil prices low became more crucial than ever after the Ukraine War. Cutting off Russia’s main source of income would make financing the war more challenging. On the contrary, as Russia prepared for a prolonged war, U.S. aid began to face serious opposition in the Senate. Implementing this policy has been challenging from the beginning. Witnessing Russia bypassing sanctions through India, China, Armenia, and Iran, we also see that Saudi Arabia, whose main source of livelihood is oil, doesn’t want prices to fall below a certain level.

The low oil price policy, on the other hand, benefited China and countries subject to sanctions by U.S..

• While Russia became increasingly dependent on China, it provided a lifeline to the slowing Chinese economy.
• After the attempted coup in Venezuela, last year, for the first time, the Biden administration allowed Venezuela’s oil exports to exceed one billion barrels per day.
• Relations with Iran seem to be softening. There are frequent claims that the unfreezing of Iran’s $6 billion is supporting Hamas.

In summary, the low oil policy is not going as planned. It’s a serious failure. If the Ukraine War continues as it seems, the expedited extraction of gas in the Eastern Mediterranean becomes increasingly essential. With new supply, prices can drop, and Saudi Arabia’s price resistance may be broken. We know that due to this policy, Saudi Arabia is trying to balance with China, leaning away from the U.S. The Eastern Mediterranean could tip this balance in favor of the U.S. In the scenario where Russia weakens, U.S. aid amounts might decrease, overcoming Senate opposition.

As seen, despite being a small place, Gaza’s chaos can influence global politics through regional countries.

Soft Power Out

After China facilitated the Saudi Arabia-Iran peace, we saw its emergence as a soft power in the Middle East. Considering the ongoing iron-fist policy of the U.S. starting with Iraq, the Israel-Hamas tension is in favor of the U.S. Before the Hamas attack, we witnessed Mahmoud Abbas visiting China and China offering mediation. Israel’s initiation of war means the disappearance of the opportunity China was pursuing, and a reactivation of U.S. policies. Since the war started, China and Russia have been adopting a balanced policy rather than openly supporting Israel like the EU or the U.S.

Annexation

Representing a very small region, Gaza has become the main source of problems far beyond its geographical size. Due to Hamas’s unprecedented powerful attack, it’s highly probable that Israel might force the evacuation and annex Gaza. In short, we might be at the end of the era where Hamas was a reliable puppet. Throughout this process, it’s crucial to note that not all Palestinians support Hamas, and attention should be paid to civilian sensitivity, which is everyone’s common wish.