Geopolitics and Markets Review — 10th June 2024

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11 min readJun 10, 2024

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France and Azerbaijan In New Caledonia, And Further Afield

Contents

Introduction
The History Of New Caledonia
France And Azerbaijan: A Long Way From Home
Looking Forward: New Caledonia, France-Azerbaijan Relations
Concluding Remarks
Other News This Week In Geopolitics

Bitesize Edition

A few months ago in a written series, I discussed the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This conflict over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been disputed since 1988 with the First Nagorno-Karabakh War.
To give a short version of my series, the Armenians won the first war, ending in 1994. This saw Nagorno-Karabakh gain de facto independence and de facto unification with Armenia. The Armenians also gained control of other territories surrounding the region on the border with Azerbaijan.
Fast forward to 2020, and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War saw a reversal, with Azerbaijan claiming 73% control of the disputed territory. Since then, we’ve seen the conclusion to the conflict with the dissolution of the territory on January 1st, 2024. However, the border crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues. On 24th May this year, we saw Armenia return the villages of Baganis Ayrum, Asagi Eskipara, Heyrimli, and Kizilhacili to Azerbaijan. The cards clearly sit in the hands of the Azeris, who have a larger population and economy. They have COP 29 coming up this year, are a huge player in natural gas markets, and geographically sit as a land bridge between Russia, Europe, and Asia, while also having trade routes through the Caspian Sea and through Georgia to the Black Sea.
It used to be the Russians who maintained peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, with the 2020 conflict and the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive, Russian peacekeepers did little to stop the Azeris. This has led the Armenians to distance themselves from Russia and look elsewhere for support. This has seen them pivot to the West. A Western partner they’ve found who seems very willing to provide them with weapons and support is the French.
So, we’re now finding Azerbaijani flags being waved in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia. How does all this connect? Find out more below.

Introduction

I’ll provide the links to my series on Azerbaijan and Armenia here. It was one of my favourite series of research I’ve done for Geopolitics Explained, and for those seeking a detailed background into this issue, I certainly dived deep into the research.

For this piece, let’s dive into how the conflict for Nagorno-Karabakh has seen secondary and tertiary consequences, summarised by the French and Azeris being embroiled in rising geopolitical tensions.

The History Of New Caledonia

To start, what and where is New Caledonia? The archipelago is located in the Pacific, 750 miles east of Australia.

Figure 1 — New Caledonia. (2024, June 7). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Caledonia. Light Grey = North Province. Dark Grey = South Province. White = Loyalty Islands.

It was annexed by the French in September 1853, became an overseas territory in 1946, and the Noumea Accord in 1998 set the groundwork for a process to give more power to the local government on the island. This process was set to last 20 years and was to lead to three referendums on independence.

Hence, in 2018, a referendum was held for New Caledonia’s independence. The independence was rejected in the vote. A repeat referendum in October 2020 was once again rejected with 53.4% of voters choosing to remain as a part of France. A third referendum in December 2021 was boycotted by those who wished for independence. Hence 96% of voters chose to remain with France.

The recent events were caused by attempts at electoral reform in New Caledonia. The French stated if another independence election were to occur, they wanted it to be more representative of the entire population. As a result, riots broke out, largely originating from the pro-independence Kanaks.

Photo by Maan Limburg on Unsplash

Eight people have died as a result of the riots, caused by France attempting to enlarge the non-indigenous electorate in New Caledonia. The Noumea Accord restricted local elections to pre-1998 residents and any descendants who resided continuously in New Caledonia for at least 10 years. The French want to change this to give voting rights in local elections to anybody who has lived in the territory for over 10 years only. This would allow 60% of those prevented from voting to vote, many of whom are of European and Polynesian descent. This would dilute the ethnic landscape of the indigenous Kanak people.

Since many pro-independence voters boycotted the 2021 referendum, they don’t believe the process set out by the Noumea Accord has been fulfilled.

A state of emergency was declared three days after the riots commenced on 16th May.

Since then, Macron visited the island on the 22nd of May and willed the island to reach an agreement within a month. There is also the possibility of a referendum regarding the changes the French wish to make. The emergency was concluded on 28th May.

So, this is what happened in the rising tensions and riots in New Caledonia. The next question that arises is where the Azeris tie into this.

France And Azerbaijan: A Long Way From Home

On the 16th of May 2024, the French Interior Minister suspected the Azeris of interfering in New Caledonian independence. It was also reported that many Twitter accounts of Azeri government officials had circulated anti-French remarks, including allegations against French police killing Kanaks in New Caledonia.

July 2023 saw Azerbaijan invite pro-independence advocates from the French territories of Martinique, French Guiana, New Caledonia, and French Polynesia. This conference saw the establishment of the Baku Initiative Group, the purpose of which was to support the liberation of French territories and anti-colonial movements.

Photo by Hikmat Gafarzada on Unsplash

This rise in tensions between the French and Azeris started after the onset of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. The French Senate issued a resolution to side with Armenia in the conflict over the disputed territory. The French iterated its support for the Armenians with military equipment sales to Armenia in October 2023.

Some questions arise from this. Firstly, why did the French choose to support Armenia in 2020?

In France itself, there is a community of between 400,000 and 750,000 ethnic Armenians, the third largest in the world, behind Armenians in Russia and the United States. It makes sense for Macron to seek to appeal to the ethnic Armenians politically. But, we can find more connections if we explore outside France’s borders.

It stems from France seeking more influence in the Caucasus. One theory is that the declining French influence in the Sahel, specifically in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, is France losing its influence to the Russians, who act through the Wagner Group in the region. The Wagner Group themselves have received a slight marketing repackage after Prigozhin’s coup attempt last June but they haven’t ceased to exist.

The three states mentioned above have experienced military takeovers in recent years, and have withdrawn from Ecowas, a regional economic bloc for West African States, in favour of creating their own alliance. Many French and American forces have left the Sahel since, while Wagner still continues its secretive missions to spread influence. This stems from anti-French sentiment that has existed in these former French colonial states for decades, and now, changes are finally occurring.

Photo by aboodi vesakaran on Unsplas

So, France in the Caucasus could be in response to Russia. If the Russians seek to gain influence in regions of French interest, they will seek to do the same in return, with the Caucasus being former Soviet states.

Outside of the Russians, who else could the French be trying to rival? Obviously, the Azeris, who maintain very close ties with the Turkish, who the French could also be trying to rival.

The Turkish and Greeks experience tension in the Mediterranean, specifically over the existence of natural gas, the exclusive economic zone of Turkey being limited by Greek Islands, and the conflict between the two in Cyprus. The Greeks are notably one of the French’s biggest weapons customers and so tensions exist there. In Africa, the Turks have also taken advantage of anti-French sentiment in Africa, boosting trade and political ties in the region.

It seems in the moves it’s making, the French are attempting to rival many other players at the same time in new regions, namely the Russians and the Turkish, as they lost influence in others.

Looking Forward: New Caledonia, France-Azerbaijan Relations

There is a strong correlation between the Kanaks and voting for independence. So, to assess potential future directions for New Caledonian independence, lets take a look at the population pyramid and ethnic group proportion living in New Caledonia.

In 2022 data, 269,215 people lived in New Caledonia. This was down from 271,240 in 2018.

The latest census in 2019 provided the following ethnic group structure in New Caledonia:

Now let’s also look at the results of the 2020 New Caledonia independence referendum, since the 2021 referendum was boycotted by pro-independence voters.

71,533 people, equivalent to 46.74% of voters, voted for independence. 81,503 people, or 53.26%, voted not to become independent.

The Loyalty Islands saw 82% of voters choose independence, and the Northern province saw 76% choose independence. The Southern province saw 71% vote for no independence. Typically, the Loyalty Islands and North see the Kanak people as the main ethnic group, whereas the South Province contains a larger share of Europeans and Polynesians than the North and Loyalty Islands.

If the referendum allows more European and Polynesian voters to vote in local elections, the power will further drift from the Kanak population. Things to look out for are if another referendum for independence is held without pro-independence boycotts, and how this current issue for greater voter inclusion pans out.

Photo by Léo Lacrose on Unsplash

As for French-Azeri relations, we saw France hold meetings between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Almaty, Kazakhstan on the 10th and 11th of May. The eventual aim is a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who are still experiencing some border tensions. However, as discussed in my written series, with the Azeris hosting COP 29 in November, they won’t want anything to overshadow this.

In April, the French recalled their ambassador to Azerbaijan, with the reason cited as “consultations needed due to unilateral actions taken by Azerbaijan”.

December 2023 also saw a French citizen detained by Azerbaijani authorities, with the reason being stated as espionage.

These events relate to the past year alone. The French have continued their support for the Armenians since 2020, and even if a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is reached, it’s likely the French support for Armenia will continue due to waning French influence in Africa. We’ve also seen Macron recently support sending troops to Ukraine, again to rival the Russians.

Lots of strings are being pulled on here, and considering how any potential changes could affect other players discussed in this piece is a good place to start going forward.

Concluding Remarks

The situation in New Caledonia is interesting. I’ll continue to provide updates on the island, interactions between the French and the Azeris, and the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus.

Next week, I still want to discuss updates in Ukraine and Israel, Chinese military exercises in the South China Sea and the tariff changes between the United States and China. I’ll discuss these over the coming weeks so if they take your interest, make sure you’re subscribed to not miss out.

Other News This Week In Geopolitics

Ukraine

Israel

Europe

United States

Finance and Economics

China

Russia

Middle East

India

Modi’s BJP Loses Parliamentary Majority

NATO

Africa

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Geopolitics and Markets Review — 10th June 2024

Written by Geopolitics Explained