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Predict

Good news: we are about to be saved from global warming doomsday, bad news: a great winter is coming.

Just be prepared so you can enjoy winter games

©Wikimedia

Global warming is truly the biggest problem of our present. The future of our children could be brighter if we could somehow cool down the planet right now. Our history says that cooling down events have already happened several times due to our past actions. Can we repeat it this time to have a global cooling trend despite high levels of CO₂?

If you were to read articles about the weather during wars in pre-industrial age, you could have an impression that the most used words in the weather description are the words “cold” and “rainy”¹¨¹³. We will talk about the cause of cold weather later, but let’s start with the occurrence of anomalous rainfall during wars.

Since ancient times people have been observing rainfall after major battles. Around 2000 years ago, Plutarch said “‘it is observed indeed that extraordinary rains generally fall after great battles”.¹⁴ The Plutarch’s precipitation phenomenon was already presented previously as a research proposal article, titled “A benign alternative to Geoengineering’’.¹⁵

We don’t know the mechanism of the Plutarch’s precipitation phenomenon, but time and time again we observe it in our history. To the best of my knowledge, no exceptions found so far.

According to the observations, it seems that:
1) anomalous precipitation is triggered specifically by a large-scale movement of one type of animals, hoofed ones, called ungulates (horse, camel, cattle, sheep, saiga, deer etc.). The hypothesis is based on the observations from the history of events of large-scale movement like:

  • cavalries during large-scale military deployment
  • agriculture reforms and regulations dealing with livestock movement
  • big agriculture shows of livestock
  • ungulate culling programs etc.

2) it is a natural regulatory mechanism that has been evolved to deal with climate change in the past. Migration of wildebeest in Africa is the best example of the mechanism in Nature.

3) droughts occur when there is no movement of ungulates. It seems that it takes place in the cases of minimal ungulate movements like:

  • hunting restrictions
  • absence of predators
  • livestock movement restrictions

Below is the list of more recent large-scale movements of ungulates and subsequent precipitation. You can see that it takes three weeks for precipitation to occur after large-scale movement of ungulates. The pattern is observed globally. If, hypothetically, there were a global movement of ungulates, probably an apocalyptic flood would take place on Earth at once.

Although, the dates in the table are not actual movement event dates, but news appearance dates, it gives us an approximation for a starting date for a given movement event.

From the data collected from the internet news and reports, we can see that it is an undeniable phenomenon. We need to confirm this hypothesis officially either by organizing a data hackathon or by conducting a field experiment.

The correlation and causation of the hypothesis could have been verified rigorously by statistical analysis of precipitation maps and data of ungulate movements if only robust data were available. It is difficult to find one. Any data request to organizers of large-scale movements of ungulates remains unanswered. Nevertheless, it is an imperative to confirm the hypothesis.

What would a rainmaking experiment look like as a proof?

To have unambiguous results, an experiment must take place in one of the driest places on Earth, for example, in Morocco (Sahara Desert) or in Mongolia or China (Gobi Desert).

To avoid floods, no more than 1000 horse/camel riders need to move for 3–7 days to cover as much land as possible. From the observations of horse culling programs by the Bureau of Land Management, heavy precipitation occurs when the number of ungulates exceeds 2000.¹⁵

To reveal the mechanism behind the phenomenon, a great interdisciplinary team of scientists must collect relevant data constantly for at least one month.

Funding is needed to conduct this experiment. If you still have doubts if any experiment must be done on this, below are the three ultimate cases that I hope will convince you.

Some areas of the Atacama Desert, Chile were known to be the driest place on Earth, not having seen any rain for 401 years, from 1570 until 1971!¹⁶ What was the cause of the rainfall that broke this longest dry spell? The beginning of the dry spell coincides with the arrival of conquistadors in Chile. Then, there was no ungulate movement, no wars until 1971, when the government of Salvador Allende offered lands to the people of poor social class during Chilean land reform.¹⁷

Drought and Rainfall pattern in Ancient Rome is correlated with the assassinations of Rome Emperors.¹⁸ According to our hypothesis, in stable times, ungulates movements are minimal, hence less rainfall is expected. It leads to drought. Then, political destabilization mobilized the roman army including its cavalry thus bringing precipitation.

The Yellowstone National park experienced drought and soil erosion because of overgrazing.¹⁹’²⁰ When the natural predators like wolves were reintroduced to the ecosystem to do their job, that is to chase undulates, the regular precipitation returned to Yellowstone park making it thrive.²¹ Other precipitation causing events are listed in annex.

Large-scale movements of ungulates bring not only anomalous rainfall, but also the coldest winters. Frost in winter or some variant of a phrase “unusually cold”, “anomalously cold”, “bitter cold”, or “лютый холод” in Russian or “dzud” in Mongolian, “жут” in turkic languages, often used to describe the winter extreme weather at the time of long wars, or other relevant events dealing with large-scale movements of livestock.

The cattle industry boom in the second half of the 1800s in Texas, USA and in other neighboring states, brought anomalously cold winters in these areas.²²¨²⁴ Interestingly, recent anomalously low temperatures in Texas (February 2021) could be explained by the increase of the grass-fed beef price.²⁵ It led to the increase of the number of farms using regenerative grazing methods²⁶ which is essentially controlled cattle movements in open fields.

Russia has been unconquerable because wars always brought the coldest winters there. Bitter cold of Russia was seen, for example, by the armies of Napoleon²⁷ or Hitler.²⁸ Although cavalries used to a lesser extent during the Second World War, army movements forced wild ungulates to be moved around thus triggering anomalous cold winters.

The winter of 1968 to 1969 was one of the coldest winters in the history of Kazakhstan.³⁵ It can be explained by the livestock industry boom in Kazakhstan during USSR epoch, when the livestock population was at record high in the steppes.³⁴ As in the case of the cattle industry boom in the US, when blizzards there killed off number of cattle making ranchers bankrupt, a big chunk of the USSR livestock died during this winter. Other extreme cold events and their causes are listed in annex.

If the speculations are true, one can imply that the Little Ice age is probably the result of the movement of 60 mln bisons³⁶’³⁷ in North America and the movement of horses during European wars,³⁸¨⁴¹ including Mongol army expansion in Eurasia.¹¹’⁴²

If the weather control has been evolved naturally to deal with climate change in the past, why does Nature want it to be very cold in winter? It makes sense, if we consider the physical properties of methane, one of the greenhouse gases. Methane must be removed from the atmosphere as methane hydrates. The right condition for methane hydrate formation is low temperatures and relatively high pressure provided by seabed.⁴³

What is the mechanism of cooling down? We do not know the exact mechanism behind the cold weather phenomenon. Moreover, it turns out we didn’t know what the actual processes are behind rain and wind until Russian scientists came up recently with their theory of forest’s “biotic pump”.⁴⁴’⁴⁵ Basicly, their theory states that forests control wind and rain bearing cloud trajectories to supply themselves with fresh water, and if there is no forest, no rain. But the authors of the theory don’t address rainfall occuring in the places with no forests like steppes, arid areas, deserts.

Anyways, research must be done to find out the cause of precipitation and cold weather extremes after ungulate mass movement. According to the proposed hypothesis¹⁵:

a) the source of the natural forcing could be a giant mycelial network in the ground created by the fungi spores distributed by hooves of the ungulates during their large-scale movement. It could explain the three week time delay which correspond to mycelium inoculation period.⁴⁶

b) fungi and bacteria are known to generate⁴⁷¨⁴⁹ and sense electric signals⁵⁰, so they know how to manipulate charges/dipoles on the ground. In Nature many organisms can sync up.⁵¹ This can be the case with mycelial network with bacteria in terms of collective charge manipulation.

c) the collective charge manipulation of the giant mycelial network on the ground is reflected on the ionosphere. There is high quantity of spores in atmosphere, and they are charged.⁵²’⁵³ Can electrically active mycelium network influence the trajectory of the charged air flow i.e. wind?

d) fungi are one of the oldest multicellular organisms.⁵⁴ They could have figure out the weather control during a billion year of evolution. Like a gardener, they could have been trying to create the right conditions on the Earth for all the living things.

Of course, the speculations could be false, because they are just attempts to make sense of these curious phenomena. Whatever the explanations are, the identified Plutarch’s precipitation phenomenon and cooling phenomenon must be verified.

Can we repeat the cooling action of the Little Ice Age by organizing a large-scale movement of ungulates?

In the beginning of this year (2021) the weather forecast for France was not good.⁵⁵ The meteorologists predicted that the drought would continue with the high probability of heat waves. Now in August, if you ask the habitants of western Europe “how the weather have been like in 2021?”, they will probably tell you that it was mainly rainy and sometimes chilly, and that droughts and heat waves are gone.⁵⁶

We need to thank for this experience of mild weather the French initiative 4p1000.org.⁵⁷ It is an initiative to help to transform European agriculture to regenerative one. Unfortunately, several floods took place, which could be because of the excessive number of cattle movements. In addition to this, it could be because of the effects of previous drought on the soil which probably made it less capable of adsorbing water.

Gradual increase of the movements of ungulates everywhere possibly would help us to bring fresh water and cool down the planet. At the same time, it can help us to stabilize methane hydrate deposits, and to store more carbon as grasslands with rich soil.

It turns out, grasslands are better than forests in absorbing carbon.⁵⁸ We erroneously have been thinking that we must grow forest to stop climate change. Mycelial network is a natural infrastructure for forest, and it must be built first. The forest must be grown in the following order:

Mycelial network => Grassland => Forest

Nature needs to decide when to convert grassland into forests⁵⁹, not people. But we can participate in the spore distribution part.

One of the oil companies shows that a new ‘Brazil-sized’ forest would be needed to meet 1.5°C climate goal.⁶⁰ There are several propositions to make vast deserts of Earth green again, like using biochar⁶¹ or clay micro platelets.⁶² Both could be a viable option, but they are slow methods. The fastest way would be using saiga or horse movements in arid areas, and camel movements in deserts.

Although not linked directly to a ungulate movement, the following graph shows that the global temperature does not necessarily follow CO₂ levels, like in the Eemian period, around 125,000 years ago.⁶³’⁶⁴ᵃ There was something that cooled down the planet during 14,000 years whereas CO₂ remained stably high. Interestingly, the start of cooling down event roughly corresponds to the start of the Abbassia pluvial⁶⁴ᵇ, a wet and rainy period in the territory of present Sahara desert.

adapted from http://euanmearns.com/the-vostok-ice-core-temperature-co2-and-ch4/

The best way to cool down the planet would be to leave alone predators to chase ungulates everywhere. For the moment we cannot do it for obvious reasons. A regular movement by a hypothetical global cavalry service would be desirable to cool down the planet.

To make things and processes sustainable, the free market dictates us to make the former profitable. Maybe some kind of carefully organized regular festival of ungulates will do the job?

Meanwhile, the number of farmers using regenerative grazing methods is increasing, which is what we want despite high methane emissions coming from cattle. Noteworthily, horses and camels emit much less methane⁶⁵’⁶⁶, but they are not perceived as food sources by westerners. The cattle industry in many places is on the way up due to the increase of the beef price. Hopefully the message from history will be passed to the cattle industry people on time, so they can be careful by learning a lesson or two from the mistakes of previous generations.

In conclusion, if we do the right work, very cold winters might be coming. Then, hopefully after widespread use of ungulate movements, a global cooling will take place bringing chilly summers and Great Winters. Writers and historians of the Middle Ages wrote some depressing stories about the weather during the Little Ice Age. Dealing with cold weather has its own challenges, but if it helps to cool down the planet, we can try to see the world from the half-full-glass perspective. If we are prepared enough, we could enjoy wintertime, we could have fun by going ice-skating.

That’s it, here is the ultimate solution we have been waiting for. We can take a breath for a moment. But we are getting late with our actions; we need to hurry up. We have two choices: either we continue as if weather anomalies are random phenomena, or we check the “ungulate movement-precipitation-cooling down” relationship once for all by conducting the ungulate movement experiment. If you don’t believe that it will save us, we can try to constuct shelters to everybody.

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Almaz Aliev

Almaz Aliev

I am an amateur of science and technology. Looking for ways to be a professional in these fields … https://almaz-aliev.medium.com/about