Learn How to Jump or Become Extinct

Cooby
Cooby
Sep 4, 2018 · 14 min read

“…unlike anything humankind has experienced before…”

“…displacement will affect every industry and geographical region.

Klaus Schwab, Chairman WEF World Economic Forum, whose Strategic Partners include several of the largest companies in the world.

If you want to survive, always be aware of, and adapt to, what’s going on in the world around you.

The biggest mistake you can make is to think that what’s going on somewhere else isn’t going to have an impact on you or your family.

There’ve been four waves that disrupted my life.

There’s a fifth wave on the way now, but it’s more likely to disrupt your life than mine.

Why?

I’m 63, so my time is nearly done.

But, you’re probably younger than I am and likely have more to lose.

The first one occurred about seven years before I was born. It forced my family to leave their homes, their belongings, and their money behind. They lost everything.

Some members of my greater family still haven’t recovered.

As far as the next 3 waves, one of them could have killed me, and 2 of them almost did.

By the time I saw it coming, it was too late.

The wave hit me and knocked me into the water.

All I could do was to try to avoid being sucked out to sea.

Fear is a wonderful motivator, and I don’t mind telling you that I was plenty scared.

My survival instinct kicked in, and so did the adrenaline. I swam toward where I remembered the shore was.

It was hard, exhausting work, but when I slowed down, my body would start to twist and turn as I got pulled away by the undercurrents.

That was in 1975 at Cape Nosappu in Japan. I was doing my graduation thesis on the Northern Islands dispute (with Russia) and wanted to see the islands with my own eyes.

I especially hated the feeling of being pushed around with very little, if any, control over what was happening to me.

Have you ever had that feeling?

I’ve had it several times.

Each time I get it, I feel sick to my stomach, I can’t sleep right, and I can’t eat right. A feeling of dread hangs over all my thoughts.

I learned my lesson.

From that point on, I tried always to keep my eyes open to what was going on around me.

So, when I saw the third wave coming, I moved myself and my family out of the way well before it hit.

Many people didn’t see it until it was too late, and the result was that they lost their homes, and some even lost their lives.

It’s a sad, but interesting story, remind me to tell you about it one of these days.

But it seems that as I got older, I became complacent.

I should have seen it coming.

The fourth one hit my parents and me before we even realized it.

It began in December of 2010 in Tunisia.

That’s when the revolution occurred, and the whole country turned upside down.

Eight years later, the country is still struggling to get back on its feet economically.

Now, the 5th wave is coming, and it’s the biggest one so far.

There are a lot of people I care about, and what I’m trying to do is to alert them and help them protect themselves.

A few of them are expats, and when the storm hits the country they’re working in, they’ll be forced to leave and find work somewhere else. That’s won’t easy to do, because a huge number will be in the same boat.

They’re extremely hard workers, and most never receive the right recognition or opportunity for growth. I don’t want to see what they have taken away.

How did the wave begin and what can you do about it?

Evolution is a slow process that occurs over millions of years.

However, sometimes certain events occur that force a “jump.”

Such “jumps” are better called “disruptions” because you can’t immediately tell if things will advance, go sideways, or collapse.

Like that meteorite that hit the planet 66 million years ago (it was 7.5 miles wide).

Very few creatures saw it coming, and those who did had no idea what it was.

Not many creatures lived through the aftereffects; in fact, it ended the “Age of Dinosaurs” (it’s called the “Dino-Killer”).

It was what scientists refer to as a “mass extinction event.”

Almost 75% of all life on earth was wiped out.

There’ve been several such mass extinction events, in fact, 90% of all life that has ever existed on this planet is now extinct.

The meteorite’s impact vibrations caused giant tsunamis.

It then broke up into millions of pieces, each lit on fire by the friction caused by its entrance into the atmosphere.

The fact that it landed on sedimentary rocks containing oil ensured that it was one huge barbecue with plenty of ash to spread around the globe.

Even the most powerful giants drowned or became “toast.”

But, those who could swim (through the tsunami), and those that could bury themselves in nooks and crannies lived.

Survival is not about size or power, it’s about being Agile (I’ll go into that a bit more in my next article).

In fact, the bigger you are, the harder it is to shift direction, and that’s why most businesses won’t make it.

That event allowed mammals to dominate.

The jury is still out on whether or not things actually turned out for the better on that one!

And now, we’re faced with modern tsunamis caused by the speed of Technological Change.

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, by now you must’ve heard about it: “Industrial Revolution 4.0”; otherwise known as “the robots are coming; the robots are coming!!”

They’re already actually here (not only assembly line, but now commercially too): courtesy of Miso Robotics.

Flippy” the first $60,000 hamburger flipper is now “employed” (deployed) in some restaurants.

Why?

Because he’s/she’s (it’s) a lot faster, more efficient, and cheaper in the long run.

It doesn’t ask for a raise in salary, it’s never late, and its kids are never sick, so it doesn’t need to rush home.

And now, with giants like Amazon working on robots for our homes, it’s only a matter of time until costs are driven down, and they become more widely available.

The Problem:

In January 2016, the World Economic Forum (WEF) issued a report entitled “The Future of Jobs” describing the consequences of the 4th Industrial Revolution:

“…will cause widespread disruption not only to business models but also to labor markets.”

“…with enormous change predicted in the skill sets needed to thrive in the new landscape.”

Like a meteorite, for several years now, Technological Change has been picking up speed.

First, it was “toys” and gadgets, then military and special applications, but now technology has begun to have a major effect on our lives.

Like a snowball gathering size and weight, it’s only beginning to roll over whatever’s standing in its way.

It has already caused major damage in the form of increased business failures.

The alarm bells warning of massive unemployment have been sounding for a few years now.

It’s the result of both increasing business failures as well as automation replacing human beings.

This isn’t “maybe” or “sometime in the future” or “over there, not here.”

Back in 2013, two Oxford professors, Dr. C. Frey and Dr. M. Osborne published a paper stating that 47% percent of jobs are at “high risk” of being automated within the next 20 years and that 54% of lost jobs will be in finance.

In 2014, The Economist magazine said “No Government is Prepared” for what is to come. Not much has changed since then.

More talk, but very little in the way of concrete action.

But, then again, what else is new? That’s how we always respond-not until it’s in our face. Just take global warming as an example. That was first discovered in the1800’s! It was confirmed in 1896, and we’re still arguing about it today.

Several other think tanks have recently published their job-loss estimates:

A recent McKinsey & Co. report estimates that 800 million jobs will be lost to automation by 2030.

According to the Daily Mail, PwC found that 40% of jobs in the US are at risk of being taken over by robots by 2030. PwC further predicted that 61% of Financial Services positions would be replaced.

In December of 2017, outgoing Citigroup CEO V. Pandit said that banking sector job losses could be up to 30% over the next five years.

Of course, these are only estimates, but the point is that’s only 12 years from now!

Although it may seem to be too far away to worry about, there’s no doubt that it will happen, and most likely within my lifetime and definitely within yours.

At the same time, the number of jobs is decreasing, the number of educated people coming into the workforce is increasing.

In 2017, there were 8 million Chinese university graduates, the highest in history. By comparison, the US had 4 million graduates. (WEF)

And, The Guardian newspaper recently reported that India has the world’s largest population of young people (under-25 years old).

That’s 600 million young people all looking for jobs.

All the “Big Boys” (those guys with an “MB” for Multibillionaire on their CV) have been talking about it, each one giving their own opinion of what’s likely to happen.

But, the reality is that we’ve never been through anything like this before.

There’s no doubt that there will be major changes, but they’re difficult to accurately predict at this point.

Unless you’re a multimillionaire (not just M, but at least an “MM” on your CV) and can afford to retire (and get your kids through school), you’re likely to be one of the unlucky masses that will be hit by the wave.

And if not you; your kids will.

By the way, did you know that family wealth tends to disappear by the 3rd generation?

There’s a well-known saying among wealth managers: the first generation makes it, the second generation spends it, the third generation blows it”.

Simply passing them the money is something like passing them a loaded gun, but not teaching them how to use it.

You have to teach them skills that they can actually use in the world to come.

Meanwhile, if you still have to work for a living, you’ll have to learn how to make your way in the future too.

One thing’s for sure is that it will have an effect on all of us: Parents, Employees, Investors, Business Owners, and Directors.

Parents: you ’ll need to teach your kids how to protect themselves.

Employees: you’re going to need to acquire new skills to ensure a steady income.

Investors: you’ll have to know where to invest your money in the new world.

And Business Owners and Directors: you’ll have to work out how to adapt your business models and navigate your way through.

How can you prevent yourself from becoming a victim?

You have a couple of choices:

  1. you can wait until it hits you and then work out what to do (not highly recommended)

2) you can start preparing yourself and your kids now, while there’s still time.

Similarly to what happened after that meteorite, there will be new life for those that can adapt to the new environment.

But it won’t be smooth.

New jobs will likely be created, but how many, what they are, and how will people be trained for them is still unknown.

The shift to robotics and automation will do at least two things, both of which will have a huge economic impact:

1) displace a lot of human workers

2) displace a lot of businesses

But the political fallout will likely be even larger.

How will countries respond?

New trade and economic alliances? Protectionism? War?

“Let’s all work together!” or, “everyone for her(him)self”?

Human history (and the current trend) isn’t particularly encouraging in this respect.

Several Tech Executives have been suggesting that we will need to implement a “universal basic income.”

Last year, Elon Musk was quoted as saying “It’s going to be necessary.”

But, how will all of that be funded?

Somehow, I can’t see Bezos, Gates, Musk, nor the Wizard of Omaha footing the bill.

And, the last time I looked, most governments were already in debt up to their eyeballs-or higher.

Not only that but whatever money’s available will be severely stretched.

We’re still adding about 83 million new humans every year (that’s the size of Germany’s population now).

Increased corporate taxes?

How will businesses make profits if they can’t sell things?

After all, displaced workers mean very low or zero consumption.

In previous industrial revolutions, the labor force was eventually retrained, and other business models grew out of the “creative destruction.”

But in this one, robots will take over many of the low (and high) skilled jobs.

And the speed with which this is all moving makes it very hard to predict which business models will succeed and exactly what types of jobs will be required.

And, in this case, we’re talking about millions of people. Retraining the masses won’t be cheap.

Keep in mind that this isn’t some coordinated plan, technology is advancing as the result of the desire for profits.

But I wonder if that’s not shooting ourselves in the foot; at least as far as capitalism is concerned.

In fact, I really wonder if capitalism will survive.

The more mechanical manufacturing becomes, the more competitive prices will get (meaning less profit).

Look at what’s happened with TV’s and computers.

About 20 years ago, I bought a 65-inch projection TV for $10,000 (about $15,000 in today’s money).

It was large enough to be buried in; so I thought it was a real bargain.

Today I can get a 70-inch LCD screen for less than a thousand bucks (but they’re too narrow to be buried in).

And the prices keep coming down.

Millions of fewer jobs, millions more people being born.

I think that’s what they call “burning the candle at both ends.”

So, Where’s it all going?

As I said, I don’t think anyone knows; we tend to do things and then deal with the consequences.

That’s not much better than flipping a coin; no wonder the decision-failure rate is so high.

It’ll be rough, and if were you, I wouldn’t count on anyone pulling my universal basic derriere out of the fire.

I’d take matters into my own hands.

The Solution: Better Learn How to Surf

Much research has gone into predicting the types of skills that will be necessary to survive in the future.

The World Economic Forum, MIT, Manpower, Singularity Hub (a tech think-tank co-founded by AI expert Ray Kurzweil), NEU President Joseph Aoun, McKinsey & Co., The Royal Bank of Canada, Visual Capitalist, NACE (Forbes report on survey of 161 major companies such as Chevron, IBM, Caterpillar, Merck, Schlumberger, and Seagate Technology), Billionaire Venture Capitalist Scott Hartley, Billionaire Mark Cuban, and even LinkedIn, have all reached similar conclusions.

The bottom line is: to succeed in tomorrow’s world; you have to be able to do what computers can’t do: think and make sense of information (synthesize).

You must be able to solve problems.

It “makes sense” if you “think” about it.

It’s not a coincidence that Problem Solving (and “sense-making”) is on the top of all the future skill lists.

As technology evolves, change will occur at a much faster rate.

This will create new challenges and problems that need to be resolved.

Not only business models, but a wide range of products will become obsolete.

Methods of providing services will change.

Those who can think things through and “see the future” will be surfing on top of the wave, and those who can’t will have to swim, or they’ll sink.

Computers can collect and categorize vast amounts of data, but they can’t make sense of it, nor can they think through the potential options and make decisions.

Nor can they explain their rationale to humans.

As humans, we need to understand “why?” and we have to look at different alternatives and potential outcomes.

We don’t always decide in a binary manner.

Sometimes the solution is a matter of synthesis; which we like to call “thinking outside the box.”

Humans are, and will likely always be, part of any decision-making process.

We’ve struggled too hard and too long to get to the top of the food chain to just give it up to something we ourselves created.

In other words, humans will always likely retain the final decision.

There’ll always be a “Zap” button.

It’s unlikely that we’ll ever give computers power over us-no matter if science fiction movies portray the contrary.

Up until now, the so-called “hard skills” have perhaps been the most valuable type of skills.

From here on, “soft skills” are more important.

Because they contain an emotional element; something that computers don’t have and can’t yet replicate.

They may be able one day, but that’s a long way off (Stephen Hawking, and Wharton University).

That “emotional element” is vital to being able to communicate with humans and is also vital to making decisions (see “Emotion”-item 5).

Without emotional intelligence, you can’t make good decisions.

But, human emotion is a double-edged sword.

It’s what gives us the edge over computers, but unless it is controlled; it can be very destructive.

In fact, it’s the leading cause of decision failure that in turn lead to business failure.

We’ll talk about that in future articles because it’s an important element in your strategy.

Here are some of the most important skills you’ll need:

Systems Thinking

Influencing

Problem Solving

Critical Thinking

Decision-Making

Analyzing

Synthesizing Information

Presenting to and Influencing Others

But those aren’t the only skills you’ll need.

You’ll also have to approach things in a systematic manner and have correct procedures in place.

Why?

Because although it’s our greatest strength, emotion is also our greatest weakness.

It’s what causes most decision failures.

So you need a process to get the best results.

I’ll go into that in my next article, but you can check it out on the home page of my site under “The Solution.”

There is great uncertainty ahead.

Uncertainty can lead to disaster, but it can also lead to new opportunities; provided you’re well placed to take advantage.

But, that isn’t going to happen on its own-you have to take the necessary steps to prepare; or get hit by the wave.

If you enjoyed reading this article, please share it with your friends.

If you have any questions or comments, please email me at y@acoobi.com

Please click here to get a free PDF report that I recently prepared for the Boards of a couple of the companies I work with.

Its title is “Is the Next Generation Ready?”

The report and this page on my site show that the rate of major business failures has been increasing steadily over the past several years and that the failure rate is set to rise.

This is due to the inability to adapt to the rapid pace of technological change. The failure to cope with uncertainty will continue to lead to the large percentage of business decision failures (50%). Deloitte’s recent report shows a very low confidence (only 14%) in businesses being able to handle Industry 4.0’s changes.

The PDF report shows why this is occurring, and that learning the skills above can reduce the failure rate.

That’s why these skills will be in high demand.

To see how to systematically solve all your problems and surf through all the disruptions, visit my website at www.acoobi.com.

Predict

where the future is written

Cooby

Written by

Cooby

WWW.TWIGLOGIX.COM

Predict

Predict

where the future is written

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