Overtime in 2024: Can there be a Tie in the Electoral College
Looking at American history, the theoretical answer to this question is quite straightforward. The answer would be yes. If we have a strict definition of a tie wherein a tie is two candidates who have the same number of electoral votes, all we have to do is examine the election of 1800. In this election, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr received the same number of electoral votes thus the results were ultimately decided in the House of Representatives. But, this specific situation would never happen again.
In the first four presidential elections, the Electoral College did not divide its votes between the Presidency and the Vice Presidency. Instead, each voter had two votes where they voted for two different individuals. The candidate with the most votes would be the President, and the runner-up would be the Vice President. While this worked when George Washington ran for office, it quickly yielded unsatisfactory results. John Adams won the presidency in 1796 while Jefferson won the Vice Presidency despite being from different political parties. In 1800, we have the aforementioned tie between Jefferson and Burr despite Jefferson being the head of the ticket. Since one of the electors “forgot” to abstain instead of voting for Burr, this led to a tie in the Electoral College. While Jefferson would eventually win the election, it took 36 votes in the House of Representatives before he prevailed. This was promptly fixed before 1804 when votes for the Presidency and the Vice Presidency were now separate.
But if we have a loose definition of tie wherein a tie could be considered no one candidate reaching the threshold to win in the Electoral College, this has also occurred in addition to the 1800 election. In 1824 and 1876, these elections produced results wherein the Electoral College itself could not decide the election. In 1824, the United States was effectively a one-party country because of the dissolution of the Federalists. This of course did not mean that all members of the Democratic-Republicans were united by ideology or philosophy, but rather all candidates of all political and ideological stripes joined the Democratic-Republicans. So instead of having two candidates from the two major parties compete for the Presidency, 1824 saw four candidates from one party compete for the Presidency. This led to an election where electoral votes were split enough wherein no candidate won the majority, a (possible) corrupt bargain that kept Andrew Jackson from the White House, and a John Quincy Adams victory only to see Andrew Jackson get his revenge in 1828.
The other election of note was in 1876. While the Electoral Vote was 185–184 in favor of Hayes over Tilden, 20 of these votes were in dispute largely due to three southern states. These states were still in the process of Reconstruction and did not have full control of their government. With widespread corruption and political violence, a commission was created to decide who won these twenty electoral votes. This commission not only led GOP candidate Hayes to victory but made a deal with Democratic leaders wherein Reconstruction would end in the South and effectively made it a Democratic bastion for the next century.
Again, these situations cannot occur again in present times. Unless one of the Political Parties spontaneously combusts or electoral reform is enacted, the two-party system is likely safe. Reconstruction will also not happen again unless there is a second American Civil War. These scenarios, similar to 1800, cannot occur in the same manner in 2024. This would imply that if a tie were to occur in 2024, it would do so without a similar historical precedent. Does this mean a tie is impossible? No, but where history has failed to answer the question, mathematics will provide a solution.
One of the quirks of the American system is that the states have a winner-take-all approach. In every state except Maine and Nebraska, winning a plurality of the vote is good enough to win all of the State’s electors. The margin does not matter; whether a candidate wins the state by 1 vote or by 1 million is irrelevant, they will win all of the electoral votes in either situation. This explains how a candidate can win the popular vote but lose the election. For Maine and Nebraska, they split their electoral votes based on both popular votes of the statewide results and their congressional districts. The candidate that wins the state in this situation, will receive the 2 at-large electors; a candidate winning a congressional district will add an additional elector to their tally.
Due to the winner-take-all method, it is generally harder for two candidates to tie but it is not impossible. Due to the 23rd Amendment and the size of the House of Representatives, there are 538 electoral votes. This means 270 electoral votes will be needed to win the election, making it possible for two candidates to receive 269 electoral votes; thus, a tie is possible. While one can match states to equal 269 electoral votes, the states must fit the proper political file. If a tie requires both Alabama and Massachusetts to be won by the same candidate for both candidates to reach 269 votes, it is likelier that a landslide occurred rather than a competitive race since Alabama and Massachusetts sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum. Due to the unique situation needed to reach a tie and the limited amount of swing states, is it possible to see a tie in 2024? The simple answer is yes but it is unlikely.
In 2024, the decisive swing states will likely be Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. This means if a red-leaning state votes for Biden, Biden will likely win most of these states; or if Trump wins a blue-leaning state, then Trump will likely win most of these states. So out of these 77 electoral votes that would likely decide the election, Trump would need 35 votes and Biden would need 44 votes. At a minimum, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he would only need Georgia. At a minimum, if Biden wins Pennsylvania, he would need Georgia or Michigan and Arizona or Wisconsin; so he would need at least three states to win the election. If Biden were to lose Pennsylvania, he would need Georgia, Michigan, and two additional states. If Trump were to lose Pennsylvania, we would need three or four states depending on the size of the states he won. These scenarios assume that no other state becomes a swing state later in this election cycle. So out of these six states, is there a combination that would lead to a tie?
If Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan and Biden wins Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, both candidates will win 269 electoral votes. While this is theoretically possible, this assortment of states is less likely. Out of the swing states, Michigan may be the least likely to vote for Trump; Pennsylvania is less likely to vote for Trump than Georgia or Arizona (Cook Political Report). So while possible for this map to happen, it is unlikely. Since this is the only map for 269 to occur without expanding the number of swing states, 2024 would not be an “optimal” year for a tie.
If we include the NE-2 congressional district as a swing vote, then the analysis becomes much more interesting. While Trump would still need to win Nevada in this situation, instead of winning Pennsylvania, he would need to win Georgia and Arizona. Having multiple states buck past trends is unlikely, having one state buck historic results due to changing political alignment is not unimaginable. While the NE-2 is considered lean Democratic making Biden the favorite to win it, Trump did win it in 2016. If there is a tie in the Electoral College, this would be the likeliest path. If the ME-2 congressional district is considered a swing district, then the possibility of a tie increases to five different maps. So if a tie were to occur and the ME-2 goes for Biden, it would become necessary for Trump to win Pennsylvania along with a combination of other states (see all maps at the bottom). While not impossible, these results would be surprising.
While the map of 2024 is not likely to produce a tie Electoral College, it does not mean that it is impossible. In fact, we were so very close to a tie Electoral College back in 2020. For a tie map to happen in 2020, Trump would have needed to win Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin while Biden would have needed to win Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan. All six states happen to go towards Biden in the 2020 election. But if the popular vote had a .32% universal swing to Trump, the results would be this:
Arizona: Trump wins by a .33% margin
Georgia: Trump wins by a .41% margin
Michigan: Biden wins by a 2.14% margin
Nevada: Biden wins by a 1.75% margin
Pennsylvania: Biden wins by a .52% margin
Wisconsin: Trump wins by a .01% margin
If this were to happen, each candidate would have won 269 votes in the Electoral College. Considering a .32% swing would be immaterial when examining the national vote, the chance for a tie was incredibly high in the 2020 election. For the record, if that were to happen in 2020, Trump would have likely won the election. Unless there was a faithless elector that switched their vote, the results would have been decided in the House of Representatives. But instead of each representative having one vote, each state would have one vote. California would have the same amount of votes as Vermont and Wyoming the same amount as Texas. In the 2020 congressional election, Republicans won the majority of states which would have led to a Trump victory.
However, due to the Census, the same map in 2020 that would have resulted in a tie would have led to a victory for Trump. The closest result to that map would be Trump winning Nevada instead of Wisconsin and winning the NE-2 congressional district. Due to Nevada’s historical results and the unfavorable demographic makeup of the NE-2, it is likely that either Biden would have an edge to win these contests or Trump would also likely win another state if he won these electoral votes. Due to this, the House of Representatives would be spared to decide the 2024 election. But similar to 2020, the Republicans would likely have the edge based on the 2022 congressional results.
While the outlook of a tie appears to be small, this does not mean that it is impossible. And if this unlikely scenario occurs on November 5th, based on the reactions of the last two elections, the road to January 20th will be dreadful for both America and its citizens.
Below are the three additional maps mentioned above. All maps created for the 2020 and 2024 elections were from the website 270towin.com.
