The 2 Methodologies of Technology Futures
The role of Technology Futures is not to predict outcomes. No. Instead, the goal is to understand what is possible in varying levels of uncertainty. Inferring what is possible can be achieved in 5 steps. We’ve discussed those details previously. Furthermore, we’ve explored the specifics of the 4 core components that any Technology Future inference include as organizational instruments. Finally, now we can get on with the methodologies we use to perform Technology Futures.
There are two methodologies at our disposal: Backcasting and Visioning. Both methodologies are a means to generate Scenarios or possible futures based on our current understanding and inferences. Both methodologies are future-focused and require critical thinking. I think both methodologies are normative rather than predictive. I also say both involve scientific reasoning as well as creativity and imagination. An important side note: the methods are independent but not exclusive. We can, and I say we should, use both to describe the same Technology Future.
Let’s take a deeper look starting with Backcasting. I am going to use brain-computer interface technology for our running example. I’ve conducted academic research in this field and still have a deep interest in the topic. This is to say I actively collect Signals and think about the tech.
