Three Reasons Russia Invaded Ukraine — It’s Not About NATO
While media reports refer to Russia’s concerns over the expansion of NATO, Russia’s economic security, and dramatic population decline may be driving Putin’s anxiety over Ukraine.
The Russian annexation of Crimea was triggered when Ukraine was about to sign the Association Agreement with the EU that would have resulted in a free-trade deal between the EU and Ukraine.
Russia’s economic security strategy is tied to the enhancement of the CIS and further integration with member states. However, Russia faces the prospect of the collapse of the CIS if Ukraine joins the EU, and the Central Asian states drift away to the Organisation of Turkic States.
Russia’s population decline is a serious long term security issue for Russia. Russia has a vast territory in the Siberian far-east. Russia faces a future where it may not have the economic power and population to defend its far east territories from China.
Ukraine, Russia and the Geopolitics of Energy
Since independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has been pursuing economic and energy integration with Europe. Recent shale gas discoveries south of the Ukraine city of Kharkiv, and in the Black Sea offered Ukraine not only energy independence, but also gas exports to Europe.
