The Future of 5G Is Still Unclear
For the past several years, 5G enthusiasts have told us that the technology is going to change the world. With cellular speeds more than 10 times faster than 4G networks, 5G is supposed to enable a wide range of cool technologies, including connected vehicles and autonomous cars. Supposedly, 5G will improve our smartphone performance while also enabling us to connect more objects to the Internet of Things (IoT).
Yet now that the 5G rollout has begun, the results have been decidedly underwhelming. Based on these initial results, the future of 5G remains unclear.
The underwhelming rollout of 5G
In countries like China and South Korea, 5G rollout has gone further than in the U.S. However, the results haven’t been great. Many users say that the speeds haven’t been noticeably different than 4G networks. In terms of running smartphone applications, there has been little difference in performance.
Major telecom companies like Verizon and T-Mobile have attempted a limited rollout in the U.S. Those results have also underwhelmed. Tests revealed that Verizon’s network performed much worse than promised. Latency was quite high and upload speeds were slower, showing little difference from our existing 4G networks. Although download speeds were faster, it’s hard to say that the rollout was a success. And, it’s worth noting, 5G was only available in limited areas of Chicago and Minneapolis. 5G wasn’t available throughout the entire city, let alone a larger area.
T-Mobile’s rollout of 5G also saw disappointing results. Although T-Mobile’s network provided broader coverage, users didn’t observe any difference in network speeds. From Asia to North America, we’re seeing the same story.
Why 5G is hard to get right
The disappointing rollout of 5G is the result of significant challenges. 5G requires many different technologies, including very high frequencies. High frequencies use shorter wavelengths than lower frequencies.
This creates a major problem: For the shorter wavelengths to work, the distance between the 5G-enabled device and the cellular tower must be shorter. It is also more difficult for the higher-frequency signal to penetrate through buildings. This is particularly difficult for using 5G in cities.
According to 5G advocates, the technology will enable more accurate geo-positioning than what we currently have. However, this problem actually reduces accuracy. In cities — where many buildings pose obstacles to clear transmission of wavelengths — signals can bounce off buildings. The end result: Inaccuracies in geo-positioning. This limits the utility of 5G networks.
One way to address these problems is to build 5G-specific towers. Yet telecom companies seeking to build more towers are increasingly facing pushback. Many residents who faced the prospect of having towers installed in their neighborhoods have objected. The equipment is aesthetically unappealing and can obstruct views. Homeowners, quite understandably, fear that this will negatively impact their property values.
Going forward, we can expect more political battles as telecom invests in 5G infrastructure. And that’s on top of the technological challenges to 5G, which, by the way, is similar to challenges facing deployment of electric vehicles lacking charging infrastructure.
The (unclear) value proposition of 5G
We know that 5G has serious challenges that need to be addressed if it’s ever going to be deployed at a large scale. But there’s an even bigger question that lurks. Why do we need 5G?
Yes, the idea of being able to connect to the Internet at higher speeds is exciting. Yet it’s not clear how this will actually impact the applications we use on a daily basis. It’s very possible that the average person will see no difference at all with a 5G network. Perhaps virtual reality and augmented reality applications will benefit but it is hard to visualize what is not accessible at such level otherwise.
Much has been said about how 5G can help enable connected vehicles — and there’s little doubt that connected vehicles can make a big difference for users and for our transportation system as a whole. But we might not need 5G for connected vehicles. We can — and should — work on deploying connected vehicle technology with our existing networks.
None of this is to say that the promises of 5G won’t ever come to fruition. But at this point, we have to ask whether 5G really is the future. And the truth is, we just don’t know.
