Thousands of Researchers Predict AI’s Future

But navigating the uncertain future of Artificial Intelligence will take more than just words

The pace of Artificial Intelligence development has reached a natural crescendo. Tools such as GPT-4, Gemini, Claude, etc., and their makers all claim to soon be able to change every facet of society, from healthcare and education to finance and entertainment. This rapid evolution raises evermore critical questions about AI’s trajectory: the technology’s benefits, yes, but also (mostly!) the potential risks it poses to us all.

Under these circumstances, listening, understanding and heeding experts’ perspectives becomes crucial. A recent survey titled “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI” represents the most extensive effort to gauge the opinions of such specialists on AI’s potential. Conducted by Katja Grace and her team at AI Impacts, in collaboration with researchers from the University of Bonn and the University of Oxford, the study surveyed 2,778 researchers, seeking their predictions on AI progress and its social impacts. All contacted had previously written peer-reviewed papers in top-tier AI venues.

Key takeaways from the study

In short, the survey highlight the sheer complexity and breadth of expectations…