Twenty First Century Will Begin in 2020
By N. Balakrishnan
At the beginning of the last century in 1900, a British journal asked many “experts” to predict how the future technology of the that century will look like. There were many predictions about steam ships with ten funnels since steam ships were the latest technology for transport then. But no one predicted the airplanes that will be invented just three years into the new century in 1903. But it was the airplane and not the ships with ten funnels that revolutionized transport in the new century.
The experts in London were not stupid. It was indeed difficult to take those amateurs tinkering with flimsy aircraft made from canvas and steel wires seriously while massive iron ships were being built in Glasgow. Just as it was difficult to take seriously the car which were travelling at 5 miles per hour when trains were travelling at about 100 miles per hour and US tycoons were building palatial train stations — the “airports” of those days — such as “Grand Central” and “Penn Central” in New York City.
The horse and carriage industry in the US was a vibrant one and one company was producing them at a rate of 130,000 carriages a year. The main worry then was how to get rid of all that horse manure that was littering the streets and creating a health hazard.
Amateurs at the turn of the century were already tinkering with “moving pictures” but not many predicted their coming influence later. It was only in 1920s, after the first World War that the technological and cultural forms of what we think of as the “Twentieth Century” began. The Jazz Age, with its radios, “talking” movies, and short skirts arrived at that time.
As we approach the third decade of 21st century, we may well be approaching our own “Jazz Age” moment and the arrival of the 5G standard in telecommunications will be the harbinger of the “real” 21st century.
Mobile “smart” phones are capturing our imagination now because they enable us to communicate, perhaps over communicate with others. But the 21st century will arrive only with the arrival of 5 G standard in mobile communications which, though already working as a pilot projects in various countries, will only be rolled out on a large scale in the year 2020.
Last week saw two announcements which foreshadow what may be coming as this century gathers steam. One announcement was that sales of mobile phones worldwide declined more than six percent during the last quarter of 2017, the first decline registered since the large-scale manufacturing of mobile phones began. More importantly companies such as CISCO are already announcing that most telecom operators will be able to achieve something around 80% of the 5 G properties with software and minimal hardware upgrades instead of having to invest in whole new systems of hardware. What this means is that “almost 5 G” will be coming to your neighborhood sooner than you expect.
Within the next five years, mobile phones will join the analog phones that had dial as being old fashioned gadgets. I remember interviewing a Hong Kong Telecom engineer who knew much more about telephony about 1993 and he insisted that for a long time to come analog phones and mobile phones will “co-exist” and that all this talk about mobile phones replacing existing analog technology was only in the projections made by amateurs. Since the mobile phones at that time looked like bricks and weighed as much too, the engineer was justified in thinking that way, using incremental projection of changing technology and popular tastes rather than exponential changes.
We all know what happened to analog phones. I have one sitting in antique display cabinet and our son looks at it as a strange object. Come to think of it, I am supposed to have returned that black monster to Hong Kong Telecom when I disconnected the analog number. Sorry, Hong Kong Telecom!
The new 5 G standard will not be much use to the mobile phone which is already getting all the speed it needs. It will be gadgets like driverless cars that will need the 5 G because they need two-way communications and instructions, unlike the mobile device which is mostly a one-way receiver.
The driverless cars will be arriving in Hong Kong in a couple of years and after that the rich and powerful in Hong Kong will no doubt use those driverless cars parked outside the Landmark as a symbol for showing off, not to speak of the Legco members. At that point trying to show off your mobile phone will become as much of a faux pax as trying to show off your short-wave radio now. One good thing from driverless cars will be that we can finally be rid of all those idling cars waiting in front of Prince’s Building waiting for their fat cat lawyers and goods laden rich wives.
The twenty-first century has only been idling so far. When the next year of the Dog rolls around the world will look not just a bit different but a lot different. End.
