What Fusion Will Do
~ expect numerous specific disruptions soon from the Energy Explosion ~
TL;DR — Abundant, clean fusion power is about to happen. Check back in 2022 once presentations have been broadcast. Industries and nations will convulse; the specifics matter. In general, new opportunities multiply — for whoever leaps at them first.
No More Waiting-for-Decades
I am not dangling the promise of a Tokamak or Stellarator, though there have been recent improvements in various “hot” fusion techniques. No, a disparate branch of research will be coming to market in a few months, based upon LENR — Low Energy Nuclear Reactions. There are hints that the process relies upon EVOs, Exotic Vacuum Objects, which were studied decades ago by the renowned scientist and inventor in the electronics industry, Ken Shoulders. There are no nuclear radiations, no nuclear waste; light elements get heavier and release enormous amounts of energy as heat, light, or voltage.
On December 9th of this year, in Sweden apparently, one of the half-dozen industrial customers who has been trying these devices for months will reveal themselves and the success of the product. The inventor, Andrea Rossi, stands among a gallery of vital researchers who have made their discoveries public, without attempting to sell anything, for three decades now. None of those researchers can be branded a hoax — because they made their methods public, and sold nothing.
Rossi’s device is the first among these which has market potential, and his first customers were wary of a hoax tarnishing their reputations. So, for most of this last year, those customers have used the “E-Cat” devices in their own factories, in private. Now that they have seen consistent power generation, these customers are ready to disclose the device’s success to the public. The factory owners know it’s not a hoax, because they read the power bill. Thus, the Dec. 9th presentation.
Energy will NOT become “free” in the sense of “zero-cost” — there is still a price-tag on the equipment, though it will be many times cheaper than our current green power sources. Yet, energy will be “freed” from geography; oil-rich nations will lose their grip upon global economies, and isolated pockets of people will have a chance at development and self-determination. Numerous other impacts cascade amongst each other — there will be clear winners and losers. Who those groups are depend upon the nuances of energy in the global market, and the societal impact from those costs evaporating. Let’s dive in!
Cheap Power => Cheap Products
When we transitioned into steam engines, and later to internal combustion engines, civilization saw a drop in the cost of power and its accessibility. Each time, that cheap power became the fuel for much of the productivity that followed. We can expect that, with another drop in power prices, industry will boom and products will become cheaper resulting in increased consumption and production.
Conversely, this increased demand for finished goods will raise the price of any raw materials needed to make them. And, materials which cannot be accelerated much by cheap power (e.g. global timber-growth rates) will see a spike in price compared to energy-intensive materials (steel, cement, aluminum, even titanium). Construction using hyper-abundant steel will be cheaper than almost anything else.
The drop in cost for basic needs will increase the margins available for growth in countries with low labor costs — and those lowered costs of living will perversely help keep demand for higher wages down. Services will be comparatively scarce and increased disposable income will multiply the demand for them, raising prices relative to physical goods.
Geography, Shmography!
The world will be untethered from the oil-rich nations, the contentions gas pipelines, the Strait of Hormuz playing hostage to Iran. Yet, that transition will occur in waves, and it is likely that shuttered fuel production will lead to transitory spikes. Oil will turn-off unevenly, before LENR takes over. We are seeing a similar disjoint behavior in energy markets today, due to green sources and a lack of storage for them. Fusion multiplies and hastens that sort of disruption.
Meanwhile, power generation can be placed anywhere on Earth! Regions with rich material reserves whose remoteness, energy-costs and transportation had previously inhibited development will see a boom in activity. Because so much of the cost of international shipping is the fuel, then the drop in costs there will generate incentives for even more widely-networked supply chains, linking material reserves in more circuitous routes at much higher velocities because of the low cost of power.
The ability to fuel aircraft continuously and cheaply also tilts the urban geography in favor of un-developed regions which are just a short VTOL Drone-flight from multiple major cities. In the Central Valley of California, a working professional could afford a sprawling estate in a newly-built urban center and commute by drone-plane to San Francisco, LA, and Vegas. Take a long nap each way, or get work done; professionals who can *usually* work from home will be making their homes in shiny new tech cities. The transportation velocity at such a low price makes it all possible.
Desalination will also green and humidify vast warm regions — and people like to live in that sort of environment. Expect places like Arizona, the Levant, and Australia to boom, fed by cheap desalinated water and air conditioning. Meanwhile, illuminating warehouses in dense stacks next to cities, vertical farming will become many times cheaper than traditional fields for all the low-height crops. Currently, they are too costly for all but the most expensive markets. As vertical farming spreads (slowly, due to high up-front costs) the price of acreage far from cities will drop. We won’t need so many farms.
It will also become possible to power electromagnetic Coil Guns, to launch materials around the planet and into space. Their immense power budget had held them back, and by launching Fusion-powered Scramjets, they will be able to route urgent deliveries and dignitaries around the world in a few hours.
The military implications of a ballistic supply-line are wide-reaching, as well, so we can expect Coil Guns to be authorized by each nation and positioned with grand strategy in mind. Immense drone-swarms become that much more potent if they arrive from above the atmosphere at the speed of an ICBM. And, even without direct routes to aircraft carriers, a disposable robotic force could land deep behind an adversary’s lines and receive uninterrupted supplies.
The Hunt in Space
Ecological constraints on Earth limit how much of our vast material reserves we can safely and efficiently extract. The boom in prices for raw materials, and the drop in energy costs, will multiply the demand for near-Earth asteroid mining. Operating successively larger industrial assets in space will become a goal all its own, without needing profits from export back to Earth. The same transition occurred when Europe’s colonies grew to be their own internal markets. Though, precious metals and elements used in electronics and sensors will continue to rain from the sky.
LENR makes long-distance travel more maneuverable — you carry enough fuel to re-orient many times and accelerate greatly. This isn’t as useful for material transport, yet it does allow the distant positioning of vast arrays of sensors and telescopes. The wider that array spreads, the higher our resolution from their combined images. Our capacity to see into the darkness with clarity and focus will birth a new age in Astronomy. Once our first telescopes settle in orbit of small black holes, we’ll have a gravitational lens down to the surface of alien worlds.
The Social Thread
Just as automation threatens job security and disruption, Fusion can substitute energy for labor and eliminate many tasks without providing a good alternative for employment. The oil-well drillers and refinery operators will need to find new applications for their skills. More broadly, the drop in prices and re-orienting of supply chains will dislodge many more workers than those lost directly in energy sectors. Mexico will be racing against Malaysia for construction of industry and infrastructure.
Most of these fusion-lost jobs will be competing with other low-wage workers in similarly stunted economies, and their governments will have few tools and little funding to supplement the workers who lose-out. Expect protests and exodus from abandoned regions. Saudi Arabia might worry. Yet, the drop in material costs will make improvements and aid to these people more effective, from global donors and from their own efforts to recover. The world at large will be experiencing an economic boom; this time, there’s a chance that folks at the bottom also see a bright future in it.
