𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐎𝐑𝐘
Why the Dark Forest Theory Says We Should Stop Looking for Aliens
Sometimes it’s better if your presence stays a secret.
We have been fascinated with the possibility of extraterrestrial life for many years now. Humans look up at the stars and ask that existential question: Are we alone?
The truth is, it may be better that we believe ourselves to be. With billions of Earth-like planets estimated in the Milky Way alone, most of which have been around far longer than our humble little world.
Yet, we haven’t heard a peep from the stars. There’s got to be a reason and it’s the question posed by Enrico Fermi so many years ago. The Great Filter is a common answer but it is extremely vague as to what that reason could be.
The Dark Forest theory, however, is both clear and terrifying.
In short terms, this theory basically says that aliens are purposefully staying quiet. The science fiction novel the theory is based on was written by Liu Cixin.
Essentially, this theory assumes all life in the Universe would be risk-averse. Thinking in terms of survival, and recognizing that the Universe is a vast space, they would not make efforts to reach out to contact others in the case that a violent civilization exists.
This fear and risk aversion is the cause of the radio silence we are accustomed to.
Here’s a quote from the book that exemplifies the theory:
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost, gently pushing aside branches that block the path and trying to tread without sound. Even breathing is done with care. The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds another life — another hunter, angel, or a demon, a delicate infant to tottering old man, a fairy or demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them.
To be fair, this theory isn’t entirely reliant on doom and gloom. The truth of it may be the fact that other civilizations see no point in reaching out. As someone who commented on one of my stories mentioned, it may be a huge waste of resources to send out signals and wait 50 years for a reply.
However, there’s another option that could be possible given the estimated age of the Universe. It’s plausible that some super-civilization exists, one that has already transcended the Kardashev scale. This hypothetical civilization would have feared other civilizations reaching its’ level and so it wiped them out in the name of expansion.
This is the reason no other civilizations broadcast their location into space. They are well aware of this super civilization and stay quiet so as not to get hunted.
Meanwhile, humanity has been broadcasting our galactic address for about a hundred years. Aliens may be hearing our signals but know better than to reach out and respond. An association with us would potentially lead to their own discovery if the conquering civilization found us.
In fact, this theory goes so far as to believe that the Universe is extremely life-abundant, but everyone is scared of each other or something massive that we aren’t aware of.
Think about it like this: if a superior civilization arrived here on Earth, what benefit would they get from keeping us around? We’re a society that has decimated our planet through innovation and continue to fight amongst ourselves.
It’s not exactly a great sell when it comes to trying to be allies. We’re clearly not the most advanced at this point in time. A more advanced civilization just wouldn’t get much out of us.
All anyone wants to do is be alive and there’s no reason to think that an alien civilization would have a different mindset. Although, perhaps that’s the kind of thinking that would make the Dark Forest theory true at the end of the day.
It is, after all, a reflection of the mindsets our societies hold. We’ve spent years fighting each other and our history is marred by conflict. The Dark Forest theory at its’ core assumes other civilizations would be like us: violent and expecting violence. It’s a very gloomy train of thought.
I prefer to stay hopeful. I certainly think there’s a reason we have not discovered alien life, but I don’t think they’re hiding on purpose.
What do you all think? Is the Dark Forest theory true in your mind or do you subscribe to another belief? Let me know below.
