Wild Cards: What They Are and How to Use Them in Futures & Foresight
Wild cards are one of the most controversial topics in futures and foresight, as there is neither consensus on what wild cards are, nor on how to identify them and incorporate them in scenarios. Additionally, wild cards are also a topic of great interest given what we’ve been experiencing in the past year due to the COVID19 pandemic, which reminded us of the importance of taking into account wild cards in futures and foresight practice. Therefore, this article will attempt to make some clarity on wild cards. It will lay out the points of agreement and disagreement regarding what is a wild card in order to land on a parsimonious definition of it. It will then provide guidance on how to identify wild cards and incorporate them in futures and foresight practice. Finally, it will explain why wild cards should be used in futures and foresight.
What is a Wild Card?
As there is no consensus on the answer to this question in futures and foresight, it would be helpful to look at what is less disputed. These are the attributes that most…
