Will China 🇨🇳 Fuel The Global Fire By Opening A Third Front Against India/Taiwan, Potentially Triggering A World War, With The MAD Doctrine At Play?
The "shock" attack on #israel by #hamas on October 7th, has brought the #middleeast to the "edge" and moved the #world closer to the "abyss" of destruction. Already the #ukrainewar has made #europe edgy and the #unitedstates cagey. If now, #china decides to "fuel" the fire and wage a direct or a proxy war against #taiwan and #india respectively, the resulting consequences would "drag" all the major powers into a global conflagration, possibly a worldwide war, or in simple terms, a #worldwar.
Can we "afford" (monetarily and in human costs) such a MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario? Before I explain, let me elucidate the aforementioned doctrine. In #gametheory, MAD happens when two or more "powers" with nuclear capabilities go to war with each other. When everyone have nukes at their disposal, what stops them from Mutually destroying each other? Such a "crazy" outcome is what usually "deters" them from direct conflict, and instead, engage in unconventional or proxy warfare, a la India China, and India Pakistan. Of course, a nuke attack is entirely possible, but not highly probable in such cases, leading to deterrence and detente
However, the times we're living in are such that a #thirdworldwar cannot be ruled out completely as the world faces the prospect of nearly all "hotspots" erupting at the same time. Indeed, #africa has always been on a "slow burn" course, and if #china "jumps in", the "cup of woes brimmeth" and all bets are off as to what happens next. THIS, in short, is the "nightmare" scenario in which the #unitedstates has to "intervene" directly, especially if #taiwan is at play. Even if its "newfound" friend, #india fends off a Chinese "adventure" on its own, the US still would have to deal with a Third Front.
Just like the 1940s, we now have the US-EUROPE-NATO-AUKUS-QUAD allies on one side, and the CHINA-RUSSIA-IRAN-PARTS OF MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA axis on the other side. While #modi has so far played it well, having a foot on either side, a confrontation with the Dragon is an entirely different ballgame. This is where the "real" danger lies for both #biden and #putin, more so for the latter, as #russia has a "historical" friendship with #india and a "no limits" partnership with #xi. Moreover, #biden has on and off declared to "defend" #taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion and so, he too would land in a tight spot.
For a generation like mine, the 90s kids, the "hope" and the "euphoria" of the "end of history" moment following the end of the #coldwar, this is an especially "fraught" time as even the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent #wars in #Afghanistan and the #MiddleEast didn't evoke the "dread' that we all feel now. The world simply can't afford a #worldwar, even without #china, as both the #israelihamas and the #Ukraine #wars can "trigger" a global conflagration. Ahem!
