Update: Netflix Might Just Make It

Photo by Milos Prelevic on Unsplash

This is an update post. Whenever an interesting piece of data crops up, I plan to use it to revise my odds — like a good Bayesian.

I’ve been sitting on this revision for a while, both because I had other things I wanted to write about, and because it’s hard to balance the forces at work here.

With two days left of trading, Netflix is still about $4 below my target price. While…