We Are Probably Not In A Tech Bubble

The Nasdaq is reasserting itself again, which makes as much sense as anything else that has been happening over the course of the last month. This movement is theoretically being “driven” by promising vaccine news from AstraZeneca, a massive jump in Amazon’s price, and a bit of a reflex rally after last week’s dip.

Given this, it seems like as good a time as any to talk about whether we find ourselves sitting in a tech bubble, and if so when it’s likely to pop.

On the surface, it looks like we might be. The market is being driven almost entirely by a handful of giant, tech brands: $MSFT, #AAPL, $FB. Meanwhile, there is a massive disjunction in performance across the S&P, with Technology pushing a nearly 20% gain YTD, while Energy is down almost 40%.

There is also a surprising amount of interest in massively speculative issues in EV, stocks like Workhorse, Nikola and Blink have seen significant rallies despite not have a whole heck of a lot to show for themselves.

Add to this an uncertain economic environment and an even more uncertain earnings season, and one would be forgiven if they saw echoes of the early 2000s.

I’m a bit more skeptical.