Crunch Time
ABC’s GOP debate tomorrow night at 8 p.m. is not one you are going to want to miss. With this debate as the final outlet candidates have to vocalize their individual messages before the New Hampshire polls open, they must appeal to voters on both ends of the spectrum as this is a swing state.
Historically, this state holds high weight to candidates on the campaign trail. New Hampshire often differs from Iowa ideologically, a fact which often gives an advantage to candidates who may suffer in the Midwest. The primary election in this state has been a major testing ground for candidates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly frequently drop out, while lesser-known, underfunded candidates who do well in New Hampshire suddenly become serious contenders, garnering large amounts of media attention and campaign funding.
“So this is just like Iowa, right?”
Not exactly. The Iowa Caucuses are not technically the same as a primary. The New Hampshire Primary, also known as the first-in-the-nation primary, is the first actual primary vote taking place. Unlike Iowa, where the caucus elects delegates to the county convention, which then elects delegates to a state convention, and then the national convention, the New Hampshire primary chooses the delegates who will serve at the national party conventions which will select the nominee.
One of the main differences between a caucus and a primary is that a caucus is organized by the political parties, whereas a primary is organized usually by the state board of elections as a regular election would be.
“How are they going to fit all of these candidates on one stage?
How will they all have enough time to talk and actually get a message through?”
Only seven of the remaining nine candidates will be debating on Saturday night. The criteria for the debate did not include any candidate who did not finish in the top-three in the Iowa caucuses or poll in the top six positions either nationally or in New Hampshire. Thus for this particular debate, the following candidates will be present on the main stage: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas; Ohio Gov. John Kasich; U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida; Businessman Donald Trump.
Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore will not be included in Saturday’s debate, nor will there be an “undercard” event in lieu of taking the main stage.
Interestingly enough, Ms. Fiorina chose not to be excluded in silence. She wrote a letter to the RNC calling for them to allow her participation and criticizing the arbitrary process of picking candidates to debate:
Networks are making up these debate rules as they go along — not to be able to fit candidates on the stage — but arbitrarily to decide which candidates make for the best TV in their opinion.
Her basis for this accusation was based on how she was doing in the polls elsewhere:
This campaign has the same number of delegates as Governors Bush and Kasich while Governor Christie has zero. We’re ahead of Dr. Carson in New Hampshire polling. We are 6th in hard dollars raised and have twice the cash on hand as either Governors Christie or Kasich. We are already on the ballot in 32 states, and there is a ground game with paid staff in 12 states. Yet, all of these candidates will be invited to the ABC debate. I will not.
Fiorina is not the only person, or candidate, who is up in arms about the network’s decision to exclude her. Following her letter, she received numerous nods of approval via social media, including tweets from Dr. Ben Carson, Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney.
Despite her outcry, she is not alone. Although it is fishy that ABC would exclude the only female candidate, Jim Gilmore will also be sitting out for this debate. Unlike his male candidate counterparts, he chose to trust and accept the network’s final decision.
Keep an eye out for…
- Donald Trump’s triumphant return: Expect Cruz and Rubio to clash with Trump and return to their old ways.
- Christie and Kasich: Polling at a mere 3% nationally, if they cannot pull it together during this debate, this could spell the end for their campaigns.
