Should I Worry About COVID-19?

Relying on Data Not Media Exaggerations to Draw Conclusions

I want to begin by extending my deepest regrets to all those who have lost a loved one from COVID-19 or who were infected. I am writing this post because I noticed this week that many of our lives have more or less returned to normal and I am not remotely concerned about COVID-19 (even though I was at first when the original predictions of massive death counts happened), but at the same time many intelligent friends and family members are deathly afraid as things reopen. So I decided to look at the data and figure out should we be worried or not?

The short answer is ABSOLUTELY NOT, unless you are suffering from other serious diseases or you are elderly. My takeaway is we should proceed rapidly with reopening and the elimination of widespread fear (while encouraging those with pre-existing conditions and the elderly to take precautions and work on their immune systems) given that we all know people who have faced much worse consequences from their fear of COVID-19 or the economic consequences of shutdown than from the disease itself.

Co-morbidities

Here is a table from the CDC showing COVID-19 deaths in the US along with co-morbidities and by age (apologies the further right columns are cut off, but you can see them by clicking the link in the caption).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

The key points are simple:

1. Out of 106,000 total COVID-19 deaths, there are 290,265 comorbidities. That means that the average person who has died of COVID-19 had 2.74 other conditions contributing to death (influenza, pneumonia, respiratory failure, hypertension, cardiac arrest, diabetes, and dementia are the most common). Obviously some of these aren’t pre-existing conditions but may he caused by the onset of COVID-19, but even if half are, that still leaves 1.37 co-morbidities per death.
2. The CDC website says “For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.”

What I take away from this is that if you are not suffering from other conditions, you don’t need to worry about dying from COVID-19.

Age

Let’s zoom in on the age data as well. This shows weekly excess deaths (as compared to the past five years) in the US for various age groups. This is the most relevant metric, particularly given the information above indicating that almost everyone dying of COVID-19 was also suffering from one or multiple other potential causes of death even without COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

The key points are simple:

1. COVID-19 is not leading to excess deaths for the population under 44 years old.
2. For the 45–64 year old age group, there was a small number of excess deaths at the peak (further detail shows that 2/3 of these were the 55–64 year old population and again almost every single one had at least one co-morbidity).
3. For the 65+ age population, there was approximately a 50% increase in number of deaths at the peak.

What I take away from this is that if you are under the age 55, you don’t need to worry about dying from COVID-19. If you are over the age of 55 and suffering from pneumonia, respiratory issues, hypertension, cardiac arrest, diabetes, or dementia — then you should be aware of the risks of COVID-19, but that was also true in each of the past flu seasons and we didn’t shutdown or mandate mask-wearing just because of the flu even though the immuno-compromised and elderly populations face similarly elevated risk of death in severe flu seasons (~60,000 died of influenza in the flu season of 2017–2018 and almost all of those deaths were among the immuno-compromised and elderly).

Conclusion

Some will argue that this data above represents a mild scenario because of shutdowns and now we need to worry about a second wave leading to much higher mortality rates. The data simply doesn’t support this. First off, sufficiently large percentages of the US population have already been infected (at least 2.45mm confirmed cases and likely far more than that in unconfirmed cases) showing that the mortality data above is representative for the broader population. Second, Sweden’s spike in excess mortality is similar to the US data (in fact far more favorable than some spots in the US that shutdown such as New York City) despite no shutdowns and limited use of masks around the country.

Lastly, I would like to note that many of us would like to feel safe to interact with elderly parents or friends with pre-existing conditions. I have two comments on this. First, as it relates to shutdowns, I don’t think this actually helps the issue — because the reality is COVID-19 has and will continue to spread regardless of shutdowns. Second, most of us have not historically avoided our older family members or friends with weakened immune systems during flu season, because we are used to the risks of the flu and we are not bombarded with negative sounding statistics in the media. We also don’t prohibit our parents or friends from driving (even though that is a much more likely cause of death than COVID-19) because our lives would be too limited if we never went anywhere.

In short, here is what I am doing and I suggest that you consider something similar:

1. Stop worrying about COVID-19 and focus on your life. More specifically: I’m not wearing a mask (despite what the media would have you believe, scientific studies are mixed both on the effectiveness of masks and their negative side effects), I’m traveling for business and pleasure, and I’m holding gatherings with friends and family.
2. Encourage precautions for those with pre-existing conditions and the elderly (and to work on immune system strength through diet, exercise, stress reduction and meditation). More specifically: I will encourage my grandparents to rationally weigh the trade-offs between the risks of getting sick and the cost of social isolation. It’s not an obvious choice which is better.
3. Educate those around you who are afraid by helping them to tune out media exaggeration and instead focus on the facts (which everyone can read for themselves on the CDC website linked to in this article).

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