Elections on Probo, A Recap and the Path Ahead
As the nation awaits the answer of the next 5-year government, Probo’s take on elections in the past and 2024 voter turnout across the nation
The 2024 Indian general elections are taking place from 19 April to 1 June 2024 in seven phases, with the counting of votes and declaration of results scheduled for 4 June 2024. This election, the largest-ever in history, spans 44 days, making it the longest since the 1951–52 Indian general election. Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, having completed two terms, is running for a third consecutive term.
Key Facts:
- Duration: 44 days
- Phases: 7
- Total Seats: 543 Lok Sabha seats
- Eligible Voters: Approximately 970 million out of a 1.4 billion population (70%)
This election highlights the immense scale of India’s democratic process, involving a significant portion of the population in choosing their representatives.
A Recap
India witnessed Assembly elections in 5 states — Chhattisgarh polls in two phases on November 7 and 17; Madhya Pradesh to vote on November 17, Rajasthan on November 23, Telangana on November 30 and Mizoram on November 7; counting on December 3. The counting in Mizoram was later delayed to December 4.
On Probo we asked our users about the Pulse of the nation and this it how the citizens of India have put forward their opinions in comparison to the opinion and exit polls published by various agencies:
Madhya Pradesh
Opinion poll:
Exit Poll:
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo Before Silent Period on 4 Nov 2023
Who will win more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- BJP — 55%
- INC — 45%
BJP to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 63%
Congress to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 60%
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo After Silent Period on 30 Nov 2023
Who will win more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 67%
- INC — 33%
BJP to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 66%
Congress to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 37%
Rajasthan
Opinion poll:
Exit poll:
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo Before Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 76%
- INC- 24%
BJP to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 58%
Congress to win 75 or more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 53%
Probability on probo after silent period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 69%
- INC- 31%
BJP to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 39%
Congress to win 75 or more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 70%
State: Chhattisgarh
Opinion poll:
Exit poll:
Probability on Probo Before Silent Period:
Who will win more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 35%
- INC- 65%
Congress to win 45 or more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 63%
BJP to win 40 or more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- No- 34%
Probability on probo after silent period:
Who will win more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 23%
- INC- 77%
Congress to win 45 or more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 69%
BJP to win 40 or more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- No- 36%
State: Telangana
Opinion poll:
Exit Poll:
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo Before Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- BRS- 65%
- INC- 35 %
Congress to win 50 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 41%
BJP to win 10 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 22%
BRS (formerly TRS) to win 60 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 67%
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo After Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- BRS- 27%
- INC- 73%
Congress to win 50 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 78%
As the nation awaits the answer of the next 5-year government, Probo’s take on elections in the past and 2024 voter turnout across the nation
The 2024 Indian general elections are taking place from 19 April to 1 June 2024 in seven phases, with the counting of votes and declaration of results scheduled for 4 June 2024. This election, the largest-ever in history, spans 44 days, making it the longest since the 1951–52 Indian general election. Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, having completed two terms, is running for a third consecutive term.
Key Facts:
- Duration: 44 days
- Phases: 7
- Total Seats: 543 Lok Sabha seats
- Eligible Voters: Approximately 970 million out of a 1.4 billion population (70%)
This election highlights the immense scale of India’s democratic process, involving a significant portion of the population in choosing their representatives.
A Recap
India witnessed Assembly elections in 5 states — Chhattisgarh polls in two phases on November 7 and 17; Madhya Pradesh to vote on November 17, Rajasthan on November 23, Telangana on November 30 and Mizoram on November 7; counting on December 3. The counting in Mizoram was later delayed to December 4.
On Probo we asked our users about the Pulse of the nation and this it how the citizens of India have put forward their opinions in comparison to the opinion and exit polls published by various agencies:
Madhya Pradesh
Opinion poll:
Exit Poll:
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo Before Silent Period:
Who will win more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 55%
- INC — 45%
BJP to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 63%
Congress to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 60%
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo After Silent Period:
Who will win more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 67%
- INC — 33%
BJP to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 66%
Congress to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 37%
Rajasthan
Opinion poll:
Exit poll:
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo Before Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 76%
- INC- 24%
BJP to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 58%
Congress to win 75 or more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 53%
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo After Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 69%
- INC- 31%
BJP to win 110 or more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 39%
Congress to win 75 or more seats in 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 70%
State: Chhattisgarh
Opinion poll:
Exit poll:
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo Before Silent Period:
Who will win more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 35%
- INC- 65%
Congress to win 45 or more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 63%
BJP to win 40 or more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- No- 34%
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo After Silent Period:
Who will win more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 23%
- INC- 77%
Congress to win 45 or more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 69%
BJP to win 40 or more seats in 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections?
- No- 36%
State: Telangana
Opinion poll:
Exit Poll:
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo Before Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- BRS- 65%
- INC- 35 %
Congress to win 50 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 41%
BJP to win 10 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 22%
BRS (formerly TRS) to win 60 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 67%
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo After Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- BRS- 27%
- INC- 73%
Congress to win 50 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 78%
BJP to win 10 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 23%
BRS (formerly TRS) to win 60 or more seats in 2023 Telangana Assembly Elections?
- Yes- 26%
State: Mizoram
Opinion Poll:
Exit Poll:
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo Before Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Mizoram Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 25%
- INC- 75%
Mizo National Front (MNF) to win 25 or more seats in 2023 Mizoram Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 22%
Notable Markets’ Probability on Probo After Silent Period:
Which party will win more seats in 2023 Mizoram Assembly Elections?
- BJP- 17%
- INC- 83%
Mizo National Front (MNF) to win 25 or more seats in 2023 Mizoram Assembly Elections?
- Yes — 17%
As India concludes the final phase of the 7-phase-long Lok Sabha Elections, we asked the users about the voter turnout percentage across the phases.
According to reports, Voter turnout in 2024 has been lesser in comparison to that of 2019
Lower Voter Turnout Implications:
Experts offer varied interpretations of the low voter turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Some argue it could disadvantage the BJP, while others believe it might harm the Congress. Both parties expressed concerns, with the BJP asserting its voters were present at the booths and top leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, making emotional appeals for voter participation. Some experts suggested that confidence in a BJP victory might lead to voter complacency, while BJP leaders claimed that opposition voters were demotivated. While voter turnout changes are not definitive predictors of election outcomes, they provide valuable insights. Significant increases were noted in key constituencies: Jodhpur (19.04% increase), Gandhinagar (19.38% rise), and Khunti (17.9% increase), indicating varying levels of voter engagement.
In Amethi, slight changes in voter turnout have coincided with significant electoral shifts. In 2014, with a 52.38% turnout, Rahul Gandhi won. In 2019, a marginal increase to 54.05% saw Smriti Irani victorious. For 2024, Amethi reported a 54.34% turnout, reflecting evolving political dynamics. Despite small turnout changes, outcomes in Amethi highlight that turnout percentages alone do not predict results.
Reasons for Lower Voter Turnout in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
- Relentless Heatwave: Extreme weather conditions have made voting a challenging task, with long queues under the scorching sun deterring many citizens.
- Voter Fatigue: Continuous campaigning with polarising narratives and a flood of promises has left some voters feeling disillusioned and fatigued.
- Apathy Among First-Time Voters: A noticeable lack of enthusiasm among first-time voters, is crucial for revitalizing the democratic process.
- Migrant Population Challenges: The logistical hurdles faced by the substantial migrant population have hindered their ability to participate in the elections.
- Aggressive Campaign Strategies: Intense campaigns may have alienated some voters, leading to discontent expressed through abstention.
- Caste and Community Discontent: Marginalisation and disenchantment within certain groups have influenced their participation in the voting process.
Impact of Low Turnout on NDA’s Fortunes
General Observation:
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are marked by lower voter turnout, affecting states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Karnataka.
This departure from the high engagement seen in 2019 suggests potential shifts in the political landscape.
Kerala:
- Turnout dropped to 70.03% in 2024 from 77.84% in 2019.
2. Lower turnout hints at voter fatigue and dissatisfaction with choices.
3. Kerala, traditionally a UDF stronghold, presents opportunities and challenges for the BJP-led NDA.
Tamil Nadu and Karnataka:
- The overall trend of reduced voter engagement.
2. Tamil Nadu’s lower turnout may indicate dissatisfaction with the central government or local alliances.
3. Karnataka, with its BJP dominance, faces critical voter participation that could influence tightly contested seats.
Rajasthan:
- Lower turnout poses uncertainty for the BJP.
2. Historically, high turnouts favour incumbents; reduced participation might benefit the opposition.
Strategic Implications:
- Lower turnout necessitates a strong focus on mobilization and voter engagement for the BJP-led NDA.
- Effective ‘Get Out the Vote’ efforts become crucial in determining electoral outcomes.
Impact of Low Turnout on I.N.D.I.A Bloc
Kerala:
- Turnout dropped from 77.84% in 2019 to 67.15% in 2024.
2. The stronghold of the left alliance and Congress-led alliance suggests minimal impact on their standing.
3. The battle remains between these alliances, reducing the effect of lower turnout on the opposition.
Rajasthan:
- Voter turnout decreased by about four percentage points.
2. Congress faces challenges in mobilizing support, with election dynamics shifting from Modi’s image to caste lines.
3. Discontent among Jat and Rajput communities exists, but lower turnout may limit Congress’s ability to fully capitalize on anti-BJP sentiments.
Tamil Nadu:
- Despite a drop in turnout, the DMK-Congress alliance still holds an advantage.
2. Entrenched Dravidian politics and historical voting patterns suggest lower turnout may still favour the opposition.
Regional Factors:
- States like Manipur, Maharashtra, Bihar, Tripura, and West Bengal have unique dynamics where local issues often overshadow broader narratives.
- In Western UP, discontent within the Jat community against the BJP, despite RLD’s support, hints at a potential advantage for the opposition amidst lower turnout.
Strategic Implications:
- Lower turnout poses challenges for mobilization but also offers opportunities.
- Effective messaging, strategic manoeuvring, and leveraging regional dynamics can turn setbacks into gains for the opposition’s I.N.D.I.A bloc.
We asked our users in probo “Will 2024 general elections in India record the highest ever voter turnout?”
Now the biggest question on who will win awaits its answer — Participate in India’s Pulse — Lok Sabha Election 2024 Live on probo from 1 June, 6 PM
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