India Under the Sun: Navigating the Surge of Heatwaves
India is grappling with severe heatwaves, impacting daily life and the ongoing elections. The IMD predicts prolonged, intense heat due to climate change, raising concerns over public health and agriculture. Amidst this, the urgency for effective climate action and policies to mitigate these extreme temperatures has never been clearer.
India is currently facing severe heatwave conditions that have led to soaring temperatures across several states, causing significant discomfort and health risks. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the severe heat will persist, with no immediate relief in sight. Many regions have recorded temperatures as high as 45.6°C, and the weather conditions are expected to continue affecting vast parts of the country, including eastern and southern India.
Specific State Challenges
In states like Odisha, heatwave conditions have been prevalent since mid-April, with temperatures consistently above 40 degrees Celsius. Bhubaneswar, for example, recently recorded a daytime temperature of 43.2 degrees Celsius. Similarly, in Maharashtra and Kerala, the temperatures have been significantly above normal, with Solapur and Angul hitting highs of 43.7 and 44.3 degrees Celsius, respectively. Kerala is bracing for more heat, with warnings issued for districts like Kollam, Palakkad, and Thrissur.
Weather Forecast and Advisory
The IMD predicts that these heatwave conditions will continue over various parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, and several other states until early May. Urban areas are particularly affected due to the urban heat-island effect, where metropolitan regions experience higher temperatures than their rural surroundings.
The threshold for heatwaves is a temperature touching 40°C in the plains and a departure from normal by at least 4.5 degrees.
Mitigation and Preparedness
To combat the rising temperatures, authorities have urged the public to take precautionary measures, particularly between 11 am and 3 pm, which is the peak period for heat intensity. Recommendations include:
- staying hydrated and
- avoiding direct sunlight to prevent heat-related illnesses.
The government, along with the IMD and disaster management authorities, have also prepared an action plan to ensure public safety and maintain essential services during this challenging period, especially with the ongoing general elections.
Contrast in Weather Patterns
Interestingly, while most of the country suffers from heat, parts of Northwest India are expected to experience scattered rainfall due to cyclonic circulations, which might bring some relief in the form of thunderstorms and light showers. This rainfall is anticipated to affect Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Uttar Pradesh, and could potentially extend to Jammu, Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh, offering a brief respite from the intense heat.
Wheat Crops Unaffected by Rising Temperatures, Says IMD
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reassured that the rising temperatures expected during India’s heat-prone period from April to June will not adversely affect the country’s wheat harvest. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra highlighted that the most severe heat would target central and western peninsular regions, but key wheat-producing states, with the exception of Madhya Pradesh, are not under any heatwave warning.
In Madhya Pradesh, where temperatures are forecasted to reach up to 42 degrees Celsius next week, the impact on wheat is expected to be minimal as 90% of the harvest has already been completed.
“Since most of the wheat harvesting in the state is over, there will be no effect,” Mohapatra stated, adding that even a rise above 35 degrees would not affect the crop yields in other major wheat-producing states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.
This news is a relief, especially considering the challenges faced in 2022 when an early heatwave adversely impacted wheat production, prompting India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, to impose an export ban. Last season, India produced 1,105.5 million tons of wheat, with Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan being the top contributors.
The forecast also indicates that while temperatures are expected to be 2–3 degrees above normal in many parts of north India and along the east and west coasts, they should remain near normal across the rest of the country. This nuanced understanding of regional temperature variations underlines the IMD’s ongoing efforts to monitor climate conditions closely and provide timely updates to safeguard agriculture and other sectors sensitive to climatic shifts.
Agricultural Concerns: Vegetable Production at Risk
In the agricultural sector, the brunt of the impact is expected to be borne by vegetable outputs. Vegetables, particularly sensitive to extreme weather conditions, are likely to experience reduced yields. This reduction not only threatens the livelihood of farmers but also poses a risk to food security and price stability within domestic markets.
Power
According to estimates from India’s power ministry, the country’s peak electricity demand is projected to reach 260 GW this summer, exceeding last year’s record of 243 GW due to an anticipated extreme heat wave.
In response, government officials from the Union power ministry are coordinating with other ministries and power companies to ensure adequate power supply, focusing on maintaining substantial coal stocks at power plants. Despite significant growth in renewable energy capacities — with solar at 76 GW and wind at 45 GW — coal continues to dominate, accounting for roughly three-fourths of power generation with a base load capacity of 216 GW.
Reserves of coal at power plants have increased by 38% from the previous year but still fall below mandated levels, raising concerns about potential shortages during peak demand periods. Extreme temperatures not only pressure the power generation infrastructure but also increase the risk of power outages that could disrupt both residential and industrial activities, as witnessed during 2022’s severe electricity shortages — the worst in over six years.
Construction Slowdown
The construction sector, which contributes about 8–9% to India’s GDP, is also experiencing a slowdown.
Products integral to building, such as cement and sanitary ware, are seeing a deceleration in production. The Northern region of India, a pivotal area for construction activities, is reported to be the most affected. This slowdown could have ripple effects on related industries and employment rates in the region.
Impact on Labour and Productivity
According to the World Bank’s South Asia Development Update Report, worker productivity, especially in industries like garment manufacturing, has plummeted by almost 15%. This decline in productivity is a direct result of the harsh working conditions created by the heatwaves.
The Reserve Bank of India’s report from last year adds to the grim forecast, suggesting that up to 4.5% of India’s GDP could be at risk by 2030 due to lost labour hours attributed to extreme heat.
Boost in Consumer Goods Demand:
Despite a slower-than-expected start, manufacturers of air conditioners such as Daikin, Panasonic, LG Electronics, Blue Star, Godrej Appliances, and Lloyd are optimistic about achieving double-digit growth and surpassing 11.5 million unit sales this year, driven by a “favourable weather forecast of a scorching summer” and an increase in disposable income.
These manufacturers anticipate up to a 25% growth, especially with significant contributions from tier-III towns and smaller centres, which are emerging as promising markets. While energy-efficient 5-star inverter-technology-based models are expected to be more popular in metro cities and larger markets, affordable 3-star ACs will likely continue to dominate semi-urban and rural areas.
Last year, unseasonal rains in March and April led to a dip of up to 26% in sales of summer products like air-conditioners, refrigerators, beverages, and ice cream in the North, which accounts for over half of these sales. Companies in sectors significantly impacted by heat waves, such as FMCG, tractors, and two-wheelers, particularly those with a large rural customer base, are concerned about the adverse impact on food production that could derail a nascent recovery post-pandemic.
Additionally, during peak summer times, especially when heat waves strike, there is a noticeable increase in temporary workforce hiring across marketers, service providers, and retailers of summer products, with demand for technicians and in-store workforce rising significantly, sometimes surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
Godrej Appliances, for instance, is ready to ramp up its temporary workforce to meet the increased demand. Moreover, sales of ice creams and dairy products are expected to rise 15–20% this summer due to above-normal temperatures, supported by lower milk procurement prices and sufficient stock surpluses, which means consumers might not have to pay more for their favourite ice cream and dairy products.
Interest Rate changes:
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee is currently holding a three-day meeting, with expectations to maintain the key interest rate unchanged in its decision tomorrow, focusing on inflation control amid diminishing concerns over economic growth.
- Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis from the Bank of Baroda predicts that due to persistent inflation around the 5 per cent range and potential future food inflation shocks, the MPC will likely maintain the current rate and stance.
- Furthermore, Teresa John from Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Pvt highlighted that upcoming heat waves could hinder the disinflation process and maintain high vegetable prices, pushing the possibility of interest rate cuts from June to later in the year, likely August or October.
- With the RBI facing ongoing food price pressures impeding the targeted 4 per cent retail inflation rate, entities like SBI forecast that a rate cut cycle might not commence until the third quarter of FY25, suggesting a cautious approach toward monetary easing later in the year.
GDP Impact:
Surpassing analysts’ expectations, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a robust annual growth of 8.4% in the third quarter (October-December) of FY24, an improvement from 8.1% in the previous quarter, with the numbers for Q1 and Q2 also revised upwards to 8.2% and 8.1% respectively from 7.8% and 7.6%.
The State Bank of India’s study suggests that FY24’s GDP growth could nearly reach 8%. Looking ahead, the outlook for FY25 is also positive, with S&P Global Market Intelligence revising India’s growth forecast to 6.8% from 6.5%, and Morgan Stanley similarly raising its projection to 6.8% from 6.5%, citing stronger growth momentum and improving global prospects.
However, despite these optimistic projections, heat waves pose a significant risk. Not only could they irritate by causing loss of economic productivity through reduced industrial power supply and decreased worker productivity across various sectors including agriculture, mining, construction, and manufacturing — which together account for about 50% of India’s GDP — but they also risk exacerbating inflation and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, potentially challenging India’s continued economic growth.
Election Polling and heat wave:
As India proceeds with the world’s largest election, voters face unprecedented challenges due to severe heatwaves impacting several parts of the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted hotter-than-normal temperatures across south and east India, affecting the election process in states like West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka. These regions are among the 13 states and union territories participating in the second phase of the elections, with temperatures expected to soar above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas.
On 25 April, temperatures in Baripada, Odisha peaked at 43.6 C (110.4 F), while Telangana’s Khammam recorded a high of 43.4 C (110.1 F). The IMD has warned that India is likely to experience stronger and prolonged heatwaves this year due to above-normal temperatures. This has raised concerns about the safety of voters and the impact on voter turnout, as high temperatures pose significant health risks.
In response to the extreme weather, the Election Commission, National Disaster Management Authority, and IMD have collaborated to form a task force aimed at minimizing the impact of heatwaves on polling days. Measures have been implemented at polling stations to ensure voter safety, including the provision of drinking water and guidelines for staying cool, such as carrying umbrellas and avoiding leaving children or pets in parked cars.
Despite the challenging conditions, citizens like Gandhi Ray, a farmer from Bihar, are determined to vote, illustrating the resilience and commitment of Indian voters. Ray, who resides in a small hut in the forest, plans to walk to a nearby village to cast his ballot, despite daily temperatures forecasted to exceed 41 C (105 F) until May 1 in his district.
The heightened heat waves underscore the broader implications of climate change, which has led to more frequent, earlier, and longer-lasting heat episodes in India. In 2022, a heatwave that claimed 90 lives across India and Pakistan was found to be 30 times more likely due to climate change, highlighting the urgent need for climate action. Last year, India faced repeated heatwaves that closed schools, damaged crops, and strained energy supplies, further emphasizing the severe impact of rising temperatures.
Although climate change poses a significant threat to India’s development and public health, particularly for over 50% of the workforce employed in agriculture, it has not emerged as a central issue in the current elections. This lack of focus in the electoral discourse, despite its mention in the manifestos of major parties, raises concerns about the prioritization of climate issues in policy-making.
As India continues its electoral process, the need for effective climate policies remains critical to safeguarding the nation’s future and ensuring the well-being of its population against the backdrop of an escalating climate crisis.
Conclusion
As India continues to face these challenging weather conditions, the focus is on adapting to the immediate threats posed by the heat waves while also considering longer-term strategies for climate resilience. The fluctuating weather patterns underscored the need for robust infrastructure and prepared planning to safeguard public health and ensure the smooth conduct of daily activities and national events like elections.
