Recap of Gujarat Elections 2022
Inside Gujarat’s Historic 15th Assembly Election, Unveiling the Winners and the Shocks!
The 15th Legislative Assembly election in Gujarat took place in two phases, spanning from 1st to 5th December 2022. The primary objective was to elect 182 members who would represent the state in the assembly. The voting process concluded, and the ballot counting occurred on 8th December 2022.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the clear victor, securing an unprecedented super majority by capturing 156 seats. This achievement marked the highest number of seats ever won by a political party in Gujarat’s electoral history. BJP is the only party after the Left Front in West Bengal to have won seven consecutive elections in a state. No other party in India has been able to do this so far. In contrast, the Indian National Congress (INC) witnessed a significant decline, reaching its lowest seat count in the state in the past three decades. Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) managed to make notable gains by securing an additional five seats.
Background of elections in Gujarat
After British law paved the way for representative assemblies, the first elections were held in 1934. Gujarat was then part of the Bombay Presidency. Ahmedabad elected Ganesh Vasudev Mavalankar, who went on to become speaker of the Bombay Presidency, from 1934 till 1946 — when he became the president of the central legislative assembly, and in 1949 the speaker of the provisional parliament.
BJP broke all the records for the number of seats won by any party in the state. It took 156 seats of the state’s 182 assembly seats — a record in its own right. The previous record was for 149 seats in 1985 when the Indian National Congress under Madhav Singh Solanki won the assembly. This was the election when the INC implemented the “KHAM” (Koli-Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, and Muslim) theory where the government increased the reservation quota for OBCs.
The BJP won in the assembly elections since 1990:
- 2022–156
- 2017–99
- 2012–115
- 2007–117
- 2002–127
- 1998–117
- 1995–121
- 1990–67
- 1985–11
- 1980–9
Bjp Gujarat 2022 manifesto:
1. Gujarat Olympics Mission’ and create world-class sports infrastructure with an aim to host the 2036 Olympics Games in Gujarat.
2. The party will make education free of cost for all girls in the state from KG to PG.
3. Create an anti-radicalization cell to identify and eliminate potential threats, and sleeper cells of the terrorist organizations and anti-India forced
4. The saffron party has also announced the implementation of the Uniform Civil Code. “We will ensure the complete implementation of the Gujarat UCC Committee’s recommendation.
5. The BJP has also promised separate funds for poor people, education, AIIMS-level medical facilities, and irrigation in South Gujarat along with Saurashtra.
6. Will also make a law pertaining to damages to public property. The law will be regarding recovery from anti-social elements who damage public property and attack private property 7. 20 lakh new jobs generation in the state.
8. ₹10,000 crores for farmer infrastructure, ₹25,000 crores for irrigation facilities, two seafood parks in South Gujarat and Saurashtra, etc.
Reasons for BJP’s success:
Hindutva’s grip
The BJP’s resounding triumph in the Gujarat election underscores the continued dominance of the Hindutva political strategy, overshadowing any challenges posed by Mandal-based politics. In an attempt to counter the BJP’s twin planks of Hindutva and development, Congress sought to revive its social engineering formula by forging alliances among OBCs, Dalits, Adivasis, and Muslims. However, the election results revealed the BJP’s significant gains in the 27 seats reserved for Adivasis, winning 24 compared to just nine in the previous election. Additionally, the BJP secured a victory in Ahmedabad’s Dariapur constituency, which has a substantial Muslim population of 65%. This victory is noteworthy as the seat was traditionally considered a stronghold of the Congress party.
The BJP’s success in these regions highlights its ability to make inroads even in areas where the opposition traditionally had a strong presence. It suggests that the BJP’s appeal extends beyond its core support base and resonates with a broader section of the electorate. The Congress party’s efforts to build a diverse coalition to counter the BJP’s narrative were not as effective as desired, indicating the enduring strength of the Hindutva agenda in Gujarat’s political landscape.
Candidate Selection
The Gujarat government underwent a comprehensive transformation, not only in terms of the Chief Minister but also in the council of ministers and bureaucracy. To combat anti-incumbency, a top-to-bottom experiment was implemented, resulting in the dropping of 42 MLAs, including several senior ministers. Additionally, some senior ministers were requested not to contest. The appointment of Bhupendra Patel as Chief Minister effectively conveyed a positive message to the Patidar community. The BJP benefited from Patel’s low-profile approach and smooth coordination with CR Paatil, the BJP state unit chief. Given the previous conflicts between former CM Vijay Rupani and Paatil, these changes were necessary to align the administration with the party’s objectives.
Weak opposition
For some mysterious reason, the principal challenger, the Congress, gave a walkover before the fight could even begin. In the last election five years ago, Congress had given the BJP a scare. At that time, the BJP’s 99 seats were its poorest performance since 1995. It would be natural to assume that Congress would work hard over the next five years and capitalise on its gains. Instead, the Congress just disappeared from the scene. State leaders were not enthused. The Congress leadership behaved as if Gujarat did not exist. The stars of 2017 — Alpesh Thakore, Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mavani, who joined the Congress later, were left orphaned; the first two shifted teams and Jignesh was simply confined to his Assembly constituency, Badgaum. If the party can’t retain key talent, it has only itself to blame. For AAP, getting 13% of the votes in an entrenched bi-polar polity is highly commendable and if it continues with the same vigour for the next five years, the Congress should prepare for a Delhi-like scenario. There, the Congress which ruled for uninterrupted three terms, suddenly disappeared into thin air and AAP became the firm favourite of the national capital.
Exit-Poll
1. Aaj Tak-Axis My India: 129–151 seats for the BJP, 16–30 seats for the Congress and 9–21 seats for the AAP.
2. News 24-Today’s Chanakya: 150 seats for the BJP, 19 for the Congress and 11 for the AAP.
3. ABP News C-Voter: 128–140 seats for the BJP, 31–43 for the Congress and 3–11 for the AAP.
- News X-Jan Ki Baat: 117–140 seats for BJP, the Congress-NCP 34–51, the AAP 6–13 and others 1–2.
- Republic TV P-MARQ: 128–148 seats for BJP, the Congress-NCP 30–42, the AAP 2–10 and others 0–3 seats.
- TV9 Gujarati: 125–130 seats for BJP, the Congress-NCP 40–50, the AAP 3–5 and others 3–7.
- India TV-Matrize exit poll: 112–121 seats for BJP, Congress 51–61 and the AAP 1–7
- Zee News-BARC poll: 110–125 seats for BJP, 45–60 to the Congress and one-five to the AAP.
Pointers for graph:
- Aam Admi Party’s Gujarat chief minister candidate, Isudan Gadhvi has grabbed the initial lead in the Khambhalia constituency.
- Harshad Patel of the BJP has gained an early lead over Dineshsinh Gantapsinh Mahida of the Congress. At 10.25 am, BJP had a vote margin of 15,912 over the Congress.
- The Dwarka constituency in the Jamnagar district of Gujarat is witnessing a tight fight between the Congress and the Bhartiya Janta Party.
- The BJP is ahead on the Morbi seat where 135 people died in a tragic bridge collapse, leading to massive publish outrage.
- Congress candidate Imran Khedawala wins from Jamalpur Khadia
- AAP CM candidate Isudan Gadhvi trailing by 14761 votes from the Khambhalia constituency
- The BJP is leading on 159 seats while the Congress is ahead on 15.
