…will El Niño occur in 2023?
El Niño, a climatic phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has captivated scientists and captured the world’s attention for decades. This article aims to shed light on El Niño, exploring its causes, effects, and the implications it holds for global weather patterns and ecosystems.
El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of the surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It occurs irregularly, typically every two to seven years, disrupting the normal climate patterns across the globe. El Niño is part of a larger phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which includes both El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña.
Causes and Mechanism
El Niño originates from complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. The weakening of the trade winds, which blow from east to west across the Pacific, leads to a reduction in the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters along the coasts of South America. This weakens upwelling results in a rise in sea surface temperatures, triggering a chain reaction that alters global weather patterns.
Impact on Weather Patterns
El Niño exerts a profound influence on global weather systems. It can lead to enhanced rainfall in the eastern Pacific and drought conditions in parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, and the western coast of South America. Conversely, regions like the southwestern United States may experience increased precipitation during El Niño events. These shifts in rainfall patterns have far-reaching implications for agriculture, water resources, and the occurrence of extreme weather events like hurricanes.
Ecological Consequences
El Niño has significant ecological consequences, affecting marine ecosystems and biodiversity. The warmer waters disrupt the normal patterns of ocean currents, leading to changes in fish migration routes, reduced nutrient availability, and coral bleaching events. These disturbances can impact fisheries, marine habitats, and the delicate balance of marine ecosystems.
Societal and Economic Implications
El Niño’s influence extends beyond the realm of nature, affecting societies and economies worldwide. Severe droughts and floods associated with El Niño can result in crop failures, food shortages, and water scarcity, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Sectors like agriculture, energy, and tourism can be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of this climate phenomenon.
El Niño and its effect in India
Experts have expressed concern over the gradual progression of El Niño weather patterns this year, warning of potential deficit monsoon rainfall and the devastating impact it could have on India’s ecosystem. While the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has yet to make an official announcement regarding the influence of El Niño on the summer monsoon, historical data spanning 132 years suggests a strong correlation between severe droughts in India and El Niño events. Approximately 60% of the time, an El Niño year in India results in a probability of drought, with only a rare 10% chance of normal rainfall and a 30% likelihood of below-normal rainfall.
Analysis of historical records from 1951 to 2022 reveals that during 15 moderate to strong El Niño years, the Indian monsoon experienced deficient rainfall in eight instances, with three more years witnessing below-average rainfall. Thus, in a moderate to strong El Niño year, there is a 73% chance of below-normal monsoon rainfall in India compared to the long-term average. The last major El Niño event occurred in 2015, leading to a 13% reduction in Indian monsoon rainfall.
The impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon manifests in the delayed onset of the monsoon in Kerala and its subsequent progression across the country. Private weather agency Skymet has already predicted a below-normal monsoon for the upcoming season, estimating rainfall at 94% of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6mm from June to September, with an error margin of +/-5%. Northern and central parts of India face a higher risk of experiencing rain deficits. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra are expected to witness inadequate rainfall during July and August, while Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh are more likely to observe below-normal rains in the second half of the season.
As global temperatures rise, it can influence the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, potentially affecting the occurrence of El Niño. Continuous monitoring and research efforts by meteorological agencies and scientific institutions worldwide provide valuable insights into the development and prediction of El Niño events. By closely monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, scientists can make more accurate forecasts about the likelihood of El Niño in 2023.
