stepping into thin air

the perils of worrying about the perils of data-driven design

I am going to make a bet with you. A million dollars says I can put a flag on the top of a taller object on planet Earth than you can.

Here are the ground rules:

1. The competition will last approximately two years
2. Once a flag is on the object, the other competitor can no longer put their flag there
3. We both start in San Francisco with $10,000. We can borrow more, but then we don’t win as much from the bet.

What would be your strategy?

• Would you race me to the highest building in San Francisco, the Transamerica Pyramid

• Would you hop a plane to Chicago to claim the Willis Tower?
• You could go to New York for One World Trade, but you might start to worry about the budget and the ability to counter my follow-up move.

Two years is a long time to ride elevators.

All of these are kinda small potatoes, too. They’re certainly easy, but they’ll get pricey quick. I could stay in California and try to summit Mount Whitney. It’s 12,000 feet higher than any building on the planet. And then what do you do?

Do you just leverage yourself to the hilt and go for Everest?

I could certainly never counter it, but your odds are extremely long. If you fail, how do you determine failure? How do you identify it early enough that you can adjust, pick something smaller and still compete?

If you’re unfamiliar with my crazy metaphors, this is one.

In particular, I get asked a lot whether understanding usage data curses Product Managers to forever test small optimizations.

The first time I heard it, I was mildly annoyed. Second time, a little pissed. After the third, it was kinda like you were insulting my family.

I know, of course, that it comes from a place of fear:

• Fear from Product Managers who see their jobs going the way of the auto worker. Automated out of a job, eaten by the very software they produce.

“We’e special!” They cry. “Our ideas are beautiful and unique snowflakes!”

• Fear from Engineers who can’t get out of bed in the morning if they’re just going ship 41 shades of blue.

Listen, I get it.

You’re all wrong, but I get it.

from Local maxima and the perils of data-driven design

This journey is your product. You want to get as high as possible as fast as possible, but you also want to know when you’re wasting time and money on the wrong hill.

You do that with data. Hit base camp, then climb to Camp I, use data prove that you’re making progress up that goddamn hill and then keep climbing.

If it looks like you’re leveling off, find another hill.

That’s it!

Product people, your ideas are still important, they’re just a little less suicidal.

Engineers, well, make sure you don’t work with bozo product people.

You can find more of my writing on Product Management on Quora or follow me on Twitter @drewdil.