More information and arguments will not make your decision making better
We often assume that the key to making better decisions lies in gathering more information and building stronger arguments. This logic makes sense in controlled, predictable environments — like optimizing a machine or solving a math problem. But in today’s world, where complexity is the norm rather than the exception, this mindset starts to fall apart. The truth is, in complex systems — where variables are constantly shifting, outcomes are unpredictable, and cause and effect are tangled beyond recognition — trying to reason your way to the perfect decision can leave you stuck in analysis paralysis. More data doesn’t always mean more clarity. And as we build more elaborate arguments, they often stop being about understanding and start being about defending a position we’ve already taken. In the end, the pursuit of certainty can become a barrier to true insight.
This week my social media feed was filled with the news about US President Donald Trump announcing sweeping new tariffs on goods imported from the rest of the world. There are as many people on my social media feed claiming this is the worst decision ever as there are that this is the best decision ever. These are mostly people that have advanced degrees in economics and decades of experience. But the truth is: nobody knows. Trump might be the biggest genius or the stupidist man alive. Global ecomonics is a complex system. Ecomonics is also not a rational system. People feeling the decision of Trump is a bad idea alone will can the economy to go into a recession. One can collect information and formulate arguments for ever but that will no lead to a undebatable judgement on this decision. Only time will tell what will unfold. And even if the global or US economy will go up or down might not even be the result of this decision but of many other factors surrounding this that might have been decades in the making. Wars, AI, climate change, there are so many things that can create a perfect storm on a global scale.
“The pursuit of certainty can become a barrier to true insight.”
We all operate on another scale but the situation of complexity is the same in most organizations. Traditional decision making operates from the idea of control, the one best way. Frederick Taylor popularized the idea that if you just collect enough information and have overview, you can find the one best way, the best decision. That works great to optimize a controlled environment like a factory. The success of this way of working spread through all of society, to almost all our jobs. And history proves that this way can be stretched far outside the factory walls. Almost all organizations achieved great successes using the Scientific Management view of the world. But the usefulness of this way of thinking has been crumbling for years, maybe even decades. Now we reached a point where this way has become less efficient. Collecting all the information and creating a compelling argument for your solution takes too much time and is no longer a guarantee that you have found the one best way.
The solution to make decisions in complexity lies in agility, intuition, and trust. Agility means that you can always change course if the direction you chose turns out to be wrong. Agility means raising the sails of your ship and start sailing. Once you start sailing you will collect more information about the right direction. When you leave shore, you have a direction and its more efficient to determine that direction from a combination of intuition and trust in your crew. If you treat a solution not as something that you come up with but as something that wants to land in the world, intuition is the way to see what wants to materialize. Ratio will not get you there. Ratio will prevent you from seeing. And trust in your crew will also help plotting the right course. Traditional Scientific Management is a top-down way of looking at the world. The managers arethe ones with all the information and overview so they can make the best decisions. That worked in a factory with uneducated workers but not so much for a team of highly educated and experienced professionals. So trusting the insights of your crew and empowering them is far more efficient than trying to make a decision as a manager. The manager should work as a midwife helping the crew to birth a decision and as a captain creating the strategic context and question.
Co-creating decisions and empowering the crew will not only lead to better decisions but also to more engagement. Any solution is as good as the ownership people feel towards it. A solution should inspire and empower people so co-creating it is crucial. How often do you see the long and counterproductive process of gathering even more information and formulating even more arguments take the energy out of people?
“It’s time to stop chasing certainty and start navigating complexity with courage and trust.”
Conclusion
In a world defined by complexity, clinging to the idea that more information and better arguments will lead to better decisions is not only outdated — it’s counterproductive. The belief that there’s always a “right answer” just waiting to be uncovered with enough data belongs to a different era. Today, effective decision making requires a shift in mindset: from control to adaptability, from analysis to intuition, from individual authority to collective intelligence. When we embrace agility, trust our intuition, and empower those around us, we create the conditions for better outcomes — not because we’ve predicted the future, but because we’re prepared to respond to it. The most powerful decisions in complex environments aren’t the most well-argued — they’re the most alive, the most responsive, and the most connected to the people and systems they affect. It’s time to stop chasing certainty and start navigating complexity with courage and trust.
Thank you for taking the time to read this essay. I hope you enjoyed it. If you clap for this essay, I will know I connected with you. If you follow me here on Medium, you will see more essays pop up on your Medium homepage. You can also subscribe to an email service here on Medium which will drop new essays right into your inbox. You can also connect with me on LinkedIn to see new articles in your timeline or chat with me there.
