why first impressions are increasingly invaluable
balance your decision-making combining spontaneous and deliberate thinking
Blink, the Malcolm Gladwell book, opened my eyes and ears to the power of spontaneous decision-making. For a long time, as most people, I have been a practitioner and advocate of doing the due diligent research before proposing an action, esp. on the more important topics. However, funnily enough, my wife says that I make quick and better decisions on big issues where as I struggle, argue, and procrastinate a lot more on the smaller ones :)…so much for the due diligence. I guess personal and professional contexts influence different behaviors.
Much has been written about Blink here and here. I have studied how people make decisions, what role data plays a role in it, is more data better than less, and so forth. As a student of data, these questions are challenging and impacts how I think about building products and delivering value to the customer.
first-impressions
Our first impressions are driven by our personal experiences, personal traits, biases, and the situational context, among others. As Gladwell says, we can thin-slice the experience to better understand why we perceive the way we perceive. We may find this particularly challenging but it is worth reflecting upon to rationalize. Where this really trips us is when we see something that we have never seen before (e.g. iPod for the first time). Blink suggests we treat each such new situation exactly the same flattening any biases we may have.
In theory, changing first impressions seems plausible. However, it is our entire makeup built over years/decades that is influencing this perception. Instead, it would be more practical to try treating each new, new situation the same and bringing data into the picture. Data, for most part, can reduce bias and enable rational thinking. For e.g. Steve Jobs uses data most effectively at the iPod launch to showcase why the device, though radical at the time of introduction, was a most compelling alternative. This made it easier for people to absorb the power of iPod and reduced barriers for experimentation and adoption.
snap-decisions
There is a place for deliberate, thoughtful decisions and there are situations which demand snap-decisions in a blink. More information in the latter case, esp. fast-moving, high stake situations may be more harmful or at least will slow us down to make our decisions mostly ineffective. Formal, conventional analysis takes data and time. Blink urges us to use spontaneous decisions to “relieve the pressure of decision-making in other areas”, which was brilliant and a key takeaway.
While it is certainly worthwhile considering usage of deliberate thinking on easier problems and spontaneous on the harder issues, this goes against the grain of how we are taught. Apart from considering the ease of problems, we should incorporate the risk or the impact. This will force us to seek data and the type of information/insight we would need to make a more informed decision. To take it farther, we should run short experiments, collect data, and then combine data with spontaneity to accelerate problem-solving.
thin-slicing
thin-slicing is our “ability to assess a situation by using the thinnest slice of experience and information”. This is profound. It encourages us to watch for subtle, fleeting, often overlooked cues to improve how we read a situation. It breaks down the situation into smaller elements thus making it easier and quicker to analyze, a logical process.
The idea of thin-slicing is a fine one. It is how we do it that will dictate how effective we will be. If we purely rely on our instincts and our mental makeup, then we bring in a whole lot of biases and notions on how to segment. We could start with our instincts to guide us, then add a good dose of data to neutralize and ground us. This provides us an initial approach to segmentation. We can then quickly iterate and test each segment for insights.
sensation transference
Coined by Louis Cheskin, a Ukraine-born marketing innovator, researcher, and psychologist, sensation transference states that we transfer any sensations or impressions from the package to the product. This experience is the product itself combined with the package. It essentially means that the whole experience defines the product. The value a customer perceives is defined by the entire, end-to-end experience. Most of the wildly successful products of today incl. Gmail, Fitbit, iPad, Tesla, are built on this notion.
Increasingly, user experience or customer experience (as Jack Dorsey would call it) is front and center in the development of products, software or not. This notion of sensation transference is well understood by product managers who engage design early in product development. Design finally has been given its due respect and has the seat at the table for decision-making and is involved during the entire product development lifecycle. Though a customer may make an initial impression within a blink, a whole lot of thinking and development has gone into the product to deliver that impression.
the triangle test
You probably have heard of the famous Pepsi Challenge and the battles between Coke and Pepsi during the 1980s to today. Gladwell challenges the test design by arguing that a thoughtful decision is as a good as a random guess and that if the tasters drank the entire cola can, the results would turn out different than just having a sip. The DOD (degree of difference) measure used to assess the difference b/w two products in the same category rates Pepsi-Coke at 4, much closer than what experts think. So, the original test seemingly was questionable.
In a much simpler scenario, most people will not be able to identify the odd item out from a set of three were they given the triangle test. In this test, you are asked to identify which of the items is NOT like the other two, a negative test. Holding the first and second items in our memory while assessing the third is very challenging for most us.
When validating products, consider using both positive and negative tests (such as the triangle test) to better understand and elicit your customer preferences.
decision-making
For good decision-making, frugality matters. Information does not equal insights, but massive information, if analyzed right can lead to powerful insights. As you collect more information, you need to work harder and smarter to ensure that the certainty of your decisions is proportional to the actual correctness of your decisions.
Just as Bezos would say, one of the army commanders talks about “being in command and out of control” i.e. set the vision/direction/strategy and let the team drive execution. Be stubborn about the vision and be flexible with the details. This applies very much to startups, where there are just too many unknowns to be micro managed.
Ultimately, decisions rely on a balance between spontaneous and deliberate thinking, between instinctive and rational analysis. There is no secret sauce. You combine the collective wisdom of the team with data to increase the probability of success.
Blink is a strong read. Though not prescriptive, it has powerful stories that makes you think and rethink how you make decisions. Product Managers will certain benefit in both improve their decision-making but also developing a better understanding of their customers make decisions.
