When and why AI will snatch your jobs in the future?
Earlier in 2017, there was hullabaloo around a PricewaterhouseCoopers report which estimated that 38% of U.S. jobs have a “high risk” of being wiped out due to automation by 2030. Obviously, the world beyond the US also took notice and turned apprehensive.
There was news in July 2017, of Facebook shutting down a pair of robots because they developed their own language and started talking to each other.
You’ve probably also been hearing Tesla CEO and founder Elon Musk consistently conveying his concerns about being careful with AI and how it may not be what we want it to be. Whatever be the case, in the uninformed mind this creates doubt if not panic.
News and reports like these are sure to stir up mass panic about AI.
So, what’s really the deal here? Will AI snatch away your jobs? Should you be worried of human annihilation at the hands of AI?
I will write this post into two parts.
Will AI be the end of humans ?
My answer is “NO”. As much as I agree to responsibly using technology, I really doubt if AI will end humanity. Even when we didn’t have AI, did that stop us humans from building and using nuclear bombs with the old technology we had in the 1940’s? Anything can be destructive if in the hands of a negative mind. End of humans will be our own doing if it ever happens, not AI’s. To fret over AI is almost the same thing as the Mayan calendar ended so the world is ending. To be apprehensive is human and that’s fine. But my answer is still a No.
Will there be job losses due to AI led automation ?
Yes, the job losses will happen, it’s inevitable.
Let me share my vantage point on this in a little more detail and you can decide for yourself if you agree or not?
Apprehension to embracing futuristic technology is not new. If you retrospect, wasn’t this uncertainty and doubt also there when computers became massively popular in the 1970’s and 80’s and many low-skill level workers from our grandparents’ generation lost their jobs. There was similar resentment and uncertainty in the air.
Fast forward to today. Innovation is faster now than ever. Have you ever wondered that in probably the past 2000 years technology hasn’t changed enough as much as it changes every 5–6 months today? The Apple iPod Nano and touch that revolutionised music just a few years back is now extinct. Phones and gadgets are smarter than ever.
If you’re from the Gen X or are a millennial you probably know of or have used a Nokia phone. Do you see them now? Well they might be trying a comeback but more or less they were wiped off. Any guess why? Simple. They missed the innovation jet.
Consumers today, want to be constantly wowed and want their gadgets to be smarter and host umpteen cool features. For this to happen, someone’s got to keep innovating, right? In this situation is it really so wrong to train a computer to think on its own to provide an extra mind to finish a task and halve the innovation cycle? AI is not luxury, it’s a necessity !
For e.g. A chatbot is like an AI powered customer care executive on websites. It’s a highly intelligent software that answers customer queries for you night and day at a fractional cost compared to hiring ten customer care executives whom you pay salaries and benefits to and need to host hardware and infrastructure for. Maybe having 2 humans for monitoring and leaving the remainder to chatbots works? Think for yourselves, what would be easier for a business to run?
Recently, a world bank research quoted 69% of the jobs in India being threatened by automation and a whopping 77% in China. Yes, I think this might happen but again, doesn’t this always happen? At one point of time schools ran classrooms under trees (Gurukul system) and in seminaries. Today we use advanced technologies in temperature controlled classrooms. A teacher who earlier just knew their subject is today expected to know how to use advanced computers and teach using projectors, webinars and skype.
Jobs that can be automated easily, should be and will be automated. All this said however, specialists would always be needed. A neuro surgeon or civil engineer or a fire fighter will always be indispensable and for the rest of us. Pause. Think.
Well we will just have to up our game!! We need to first make peace with the fact that we aren’t really worried about job losses but really fear stepping out of our comfort zones and having to go through new learning cycles. Yes, I know that’s daunting but we will have to do it to be ahead in the game and not become redundant we will have to step out of the comfort zone and learn new things.
Here is something from Bloomberg which will help you check how secure your job or trade is in the AI led future.
Another case in point, remember in 2012–2013 there was news of Spain battling unemployment. Now check out this interesting infograph from the Digital Transformation Institute.
This is awesome, right?!
So when would the job cuts tentatively begin ?
I think it’s safe to say we have 3–4 years before that happens in a noticeable scale in developed nations and 6–7 years in developing economies. We have that corresponding time to learn cool new things as well.
So my dear friends, chin up!!
If jobs are getting cut they’re also being created !!
And do not forget, jobs will be lost in every new technology revolution and automation. That’s reality. In maybe 50 years we would be worried on AI going obsolete and the next big thing then would make us apprehensive but that’s the cycle of evolution right. We evolve too. We change we adapt, we unlearn and relearn. We’re human and we’re strong!! Enjoy and ride the AI wave.
Would love to hear back on your thoughts on this article.
P.S. — I am an ardent AI enthusiast and seek its business relevance each day because i know it’s the way to a productive tomorrow. In fact, I’ve just built an AI powered CRM tool called Alore. If you’d like to explore the tool click here
If you want to write to me and discuss/debate on AI personally then I’d be happy to hear from you at vikas@plash.in
