Podcast Predictions for 2024 (The Ghost of Podcast Future)

Over the last 2 days, we looked at the ghosts of podcast past, and podcast present, in an effort to learn how we got to where we are, and what really makes a good podcast, well, good.

For the final article of Podcast Advent 2023 (!!), I want to turn our attention to the future and look at what 2024 has in store for podcasting.

There were a few stories in recent months that I believe will inform how we approach, measure, and produce podcasts in 2024.

One quick programming note: I’d really like to speak intelligently on Custom GPTs, and do believe that they’ll have a big impact on podcasting (remember what I said yesterday about AI not understanding our audience?). But I haven’t made one yet, and really want to test it first. That’s likely something I’ll do for members in January.

OK — let’s jump into the predictions.

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Downloads will matter less

I’ve heard more people say this year than in previous years that downloads are not the metric that matters. And while that’s absolutely true, downloads have been the only metric we’ve consistently had over a long period of time.

But with more companies trying to track “listeners,” Apple Podcasts and Spotify making more stats available to us (like consumption and engaged listeners), and YouTube throwing its hat and analytical prowess into the podcasting ring, that’s going to change.

iOS 17 has already made a change in Apple Podcasts that dramatically changes the number of downloads a podcast sees.

Plus, some podcast hosting companies are reportedly willing to let their IAB compliance lapse, meaning they won’t have the backing of the only organization that tries to standardize podcast download numbers.

All of this is creating a perfect storm in 2024 for podcasts to leave download counts by the wayside, and instead measure something more meaningful — email signups, engagements, and even clicks in show notes or visits to URLs the hosts say on air.

On Day 14, I posited that your podcast’s clear CTA is crucial for your podcast to grow. That’s going to be even more true in 2024.

Podcast ads (as we know them) will take a hit

With the primary metric for podcast ads taking a hit in 2023, you might be wondering how they’re affected, if at all. And while there have been some reports of podcasters having to do more to make goods, there’s actually another story I’m thinking about.

Podcast listening service Auddia has announced that it will automatically skip ads in podcasts for listeners on their pro plan. Let’s ignore the fact that they are profiting by modifying the listening experience of content they don’t own, potentially taking money out of the pockets of the actual content owners.

Instead, let’s look at a long-standing trend for listening who enjoy free content on other web-based platforms: they hate ads.

Specifically, they hate intrusive ads that interrupt the content poorly. This is why ad blockers are so popular. It’s why people go through great lengths to block ads on YouTube (or pay for YouTube Premium, which gives money back to the creators).

Moving into 2024, we’re seeing downloads take a hit, a growing disdain for podcast ads, and many podcasts still struggling due to lack of interest in advertising.

That means podcasters will have to be creative about how they integrate brand deals and generate income with their podcasts.

That’s not to say podcast ads will disappear, but we’ll see more podcasters try to diversify their income to not rely fully on podcast ads.

We’ll see some podcast-listening app consolidation

Stitcher closed. Castro appears to be on its last legs. YouTube has entered the podcasting arena, and more people are using Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Apple Podcasts has actually made some big updates this year — most of them very positive.

We also see smaller apps, like Pocket Casts, experimenting with a higher-tier revenue model. It’s becoming harder for independent podcast apps to compete, so we’re seeing a great consolidation of podcast apps.

What does this mean for us podcasters? It can be bad or good. Bad in the sense that less competition can lead to a lack of innovation and the potential for more vendor lock-in.

But I don’t think we’re there or will get there. Because podcasts are based on RSS feeds, consolidation can happen, but wholesale gatekeeping cannot.

So you can also take a more optimistic approach. If podcasters understand where the vast majority of their listeners are consuming their podcasts, they can tailor the experience, offering bonus content, having specific calls to action, or, if video is an important aspect, putting more effort into that.

This leads me to my final prediction for 2024…

Podcasters will have to get more creative with content

Something else I heard a lot more this year than in previous years is that the straight interview podcast is dead.

I’ve personally made several changes to the format of my show, and I’ve spoken to other podcasters who aim to put a new twist on the format or borrow from other mediums.

The ghost of podcast past taught us that differentiation through quality is important — it’s no longer good enough to just release a raw interview and hope people will listen.

That’s even more true with YouTube supporting podcasts and Spotify supporting video. Creating a better experience is a necessity.

Going into 2024 your goal, if you want your podcast to succeed, is to be creative with your content. Experiment with different formats. Try a solo show. Try bringing on a regular cohost.

Think about the story each episode tells.

The way you can spend more time on the content is by leveraging AI and other tools to help improve your podcast workflows.

That’s what the ghost of podcast present taught us — and that’s the whole reason I run this site.

Save time where you can to spend more time adding the human element to your show.

That was my goal for this podcast advent, and I really hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.

Merry Christmas if you celebrate, and here’s to a fantastic New Year — for you and your podcast.

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