How Meta’s Threads Lost Before The Beginning

The Leaky Bucket Problem that caused Meta to lose against X

Syed Kadar Ansari Syed Ahamed
ProgrammingX.io
4 min readJul 17, 2023

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Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

The emergence of Meta’s Threads as a contender against X has captured the attention of users and industry experts alike. Threads’ remarkable user growth and emphasis on positive content have been its primary strengths. However, beneath the surface lies a challenge that threatens to hinder its sustained success — the leaky bucket problem.

Understanding the Leaky Bucket Problem:

The leaky bucket problem is a metaphorical representation of the phenomenon where a platform’s user acquisition rate exceeds its ability to retain users.

In Threads’ case, millions of users have flocked to the platform, drawn by its novel features and focus on positivity.

However, according to data from Similarweb, traffic to X website has remained relatively stable in the two weeks since Threads’ launch where as Threads saw significant drop. This suggests that X is not losing users to Threads, and that the two platforms are serving different audiences.

Threads vs X in Google trends | image credit : author

Signing up for Threads requires an Instagram account, allowing Meta to leverage its previously built user base to supercharge growth but however, inadequate product-market fit and a lack of engaging content have led to a significant churn rate, causing users to leave the platform.

X brand recognition: X is a well-established brand with a large user base. This could make it difficult for Threads to compete with X. X is integrated with a number of other platforms, such as Facebook and Periscope. This could make it difficult for Threads to attract users who are already invested in these platforms.

Inadequate Product-Market Fit: While Threads has been successful in attracting users initially, many have found it that the platform doesn’t offer anything additional to X, in some cases it offer way less than the competitor. Product-market fit is essential for keeping users engaged and satisfied with their experience.

Content Scarcity: Social media platforms thrive on content, and a scarcity of compelling and diverse content can drive users away. Though Threads’ user base is larger , especially when compared to X’s early days, but the users influx was from image based social platform aka Instagram, who are not used to text based platform, this means less content is being generated, reducing the platform’s appeal to potential users.

X is a more public platform, while Threads is a more private platform. X is also more focused on news and current events, while Threads is more focused on personal stories and connections. This means that users who are looking for a more public platform or who are interested in news and current events are more likely to stay on Twitter, while users who are looking for a more private platform or who are interested in personal stories and connections are more likely to switch to Threads.

User Experience and Accessibility: Threads is still a relatively new app and it lacks some of the features that are available on X. This could make it less appealing to some users. A smooth and intuitive user experience is critical for retaining users. Any friction in accessing the platform or using its features can lead to frustration and ultimately contribute to the leaky bucket problem.

Overcoming the Leaky Bucket Problem:

To ensure long-term success and sustainable growth, Threads must address the leaky bucket problem with targeted strategies.

  1. Refining Product-Market Fit: Threads must invest in understanding user needs, preferences, and pain points to enhance its product-market fit. Conducting user surveys, gathering feedback, and analyzing user behavior will provide valuable insights for refining the platform’s design and functionality.
  2. Content Generation and Curation: To counter content scarcity, Threads can foster a thriving community by encouraging user-generated content and collaborations. Implementing content curation algorithms that personalise content feeds to individual users’ interests can also boost engagement.
  3. Gamification and Rewards: Introducing gamification elements, such as badges, levels, and rewards for active users, can create a sense of achievement and motivate users to stay engaged on the platform.
  4. Enhancing User Onboarding: Streamlining the user onboarding process and providing clear tutorials and guides will make Threads more accessible to new users, reducing the likelihood of early drop-offs due to confusion or frustration.
  5. Collaborations and Partnerships: Partnering with content creators, influencers, or organisations can bring fresh and diverse content to Threads, attracting more users and addressing the content scarcity issue.

Threads’ rapid rise and early success in the social media landscape demonstrate its potential to challenge X’s dominance. However, the leaky bucket problem poses a significant obstacle that must be addressed for Threads to solidify its position and keep users engaged for the long term.

By focusing on refining product-market fit, boosting content generation and curation, implementing gamification elements, enhancing user onboarding, and exploring collaborations and partnerships, Threads can plug the leaks and create a compelling platform that fosters user loyalty and sustained growth.

As Threads continues to evolve, its ability to tackle the leaky bucket problem will be instrumental in determining whether it can carve out a prominent space in the social media arena or if it remains another fleeting contender in the relentless race for user attention.

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Syed Kadar Ansari Syed Ahamed
ProgrammingX.io

Engineering manager, specialised in building data platforms and cloud technologies. Writing my experience and thoughts to help others and also myself.