The Second Breakout: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
The third entry in our series analyzing how star players have been able to raise their game another level this season
The numbers: Calvert-Lewin didn’t look like much of a goalscorer early in his Everton career, with just 11 goals in his first 78 league matches, but the club’s faith in him was rewarded as he broke out with 13 in 36 in the league last campaign. The 23-year-old is now on pace to significantly improve on that return, as he’s netted 11 goals in 16 matches so far in 2020–2021 and has earned a place in the English national team setup in the process.
What’s behind it: Calvert-Lewin is getting into better positions and accordingly finding much easier chances as Everton have become a better footballing side with the additions of Allan, Abdoulaye Doucoure, and James Rodriguez in midfield.
Last year, Everton were happy to bypass their midfield completely and get the ball up to Calvert-Lewin as quickly as possible; he engaged in 12.5 aerial duels per 90 minutes, one of the highest rates of any forward in the league. This season, Calvert-Lewin is competing for fewer aerial balls (8.9 per 90) and getting the ball in more dangerous areas. His touches in the attacking third (17.8 per 90) are nearly identical to last season (17.7), but his touches in the penalty area have increased from 4.9 to 5.4 per 90.
A look at his season heatmaps, courtesy of SofaScore, show that Calvert-Lewin isn’t drifting as deep or as wide to collect the ball and is instead spending more time between the six-yard box and the penalty spot — a true penalty-box poacher.
Per Understat data, Calvert-Lewin has already scored more goals from inside the six-yard box (six goals from 12 shots) than he did last season (five goals from 16 shots). Getting into better positions has allowed him to increase his conversion rate; while he’s attempting the same number of shots per game as last season (2.8), his accuracy has improved by nearly 10 points (54.5% on target, up from 44.6%) and his goals per shot have increased from 0.16 to 0.25.
Calvert-Lewin remains an exceptional header of the ball, allowing him to boost his goal tally by converting low-percentage chances in the air into goals: his four headed goals lead the league and match his total from all of last season.
Calvert-Lewin’s hat-trick against West Brom is illustrative of how he keeps finding the back of the net this season.
For the first goal, Seamus Coleman tries to find Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s near-post run but the right-back’s lofted ball is just a bit too high.
A fortuitous deflection brings the ball back across the six-yard box, however, and Calvert-Lewin is in the perfect position to tap it in with a clever back-heel.
The move for Calvert-Lewin’s second starts when James unlocks the West Brom defense with a chipped ball over the top for Richarlison.
Richarlison then squares the ball past the goalkeeper for Calvert-Lewin to poke it into an open net.
Calvert-Lewin completes the hat-trick with an excellent headed finish directly from a James corner. The ball is a bit lower than ideal, but Calvert-Lewin stoops to place it expertly past the keeper.
That’s three goals courtesy of two tap-ins and one impressive header — the two kinds of chances that have been fuelling Calvert-Lewin’s scoring tear this season.
