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IHME Incorrectly Forecast 81k Deaths From COVID-19

It’s wrong, and here are four reasons why

Figure 1: Rate of Peak Hospital Resource Use (Credit: Data from IHME, Animation by David Leibowitz)

This week, Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, referenced several statistical models used in the recommendation to extend social distancing guidelines in the US, one of them designed by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).




Analysis and provocations grounded in fact. Inviting civil debate; reserving the right to be wrong.

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David Leibowitz

David Leibowitz

Breaker of treadmills. Contributions in XBOX Mag, Forbes, CNN, OneZero & industry rags. @ retail, CPG, health/wellness, education, culture & tech.

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