Which spring nail polish is right for you?

There are many online quizzes that are published by magazines. They claim to predict a range of topics from ‘if you should dump your boyfriend’ to ‘which lip balm should you wear?’. Two quizzes were selected from different magazine publishers that both claimed to know ‘what spring nail polish you should wear’. 10 female participants took both quizzes to see if the quizzes produced the same answers. The same 10 participants took the quizzes for the second time a week later. Therefore, the quizzes were being tested to identify if the quizzes were reliable and valid. Specifically, the test and retest reliability method, and convergent validity method were used. Moreover, if the test was reliable the participants should get the same results week 1 and week 2, and if the test is valid both tests should produce the same colour for the same individual. Oddly enough both the quizzes had perfect test-retest reliability. Therefore, if the first quiz identified red as the perfect colour for you, a week later red would still be the perfect colour for you. However, neither quiz identified the same colour for the same individual for any of the participants. Therefore, both tests had perfect test-retest reliability, but the quizzes did not produce convergent validity.

Week 1

Week 2

Since convergent validity was compared, it is not clear that one quiz does not have the ability to determine the ideal spring nail polish colour. It just means that at least one of quizzes is not valid, and it not able to predict the perfect spring nail polish colour. One way it could be proven that one quiz is valid (or not) would be to to have nail estheticians judge the nail polish samples. Each girl would paint their nail polish colour with both quizzes’ nail polish selections, and the nail estheticians would judge which magazine selected the ideal colour for the spring. Therefore, if the first magazine selected red and the second magazine selected pink you would paint your nails red and pink.

If the nail estheticians preferred one magazine’s nail polish selections, it would mean there was a preference for the one magazine’s colours. However, it wouldn’t mean that the one magazine selected the right colour, it would mean that in general nail estheticians prefer that publisher’s nail polish selections. Then each girl would have to paint their nails with every nail polish colour that the magazine could have selected for them. Therefore, if the nail estheticians preferred Magazine #2, the ten girls would need to paint their nails with light purple, pink, and dark blue. The nail estheticians would need to judge the girls’ nail polishes.

If the nail estheticians selected the same nail polish colour as the quiz, then it would establish it is a valid test. Assuming that nail estheticians reliably select the same colour for each girl. However, if the quiz and nail estheticians selected different colours for each individaul. It would prove that the Magazine’s quiz is not valid, because it fails to produce convergent validity. This is a good example that it can be difficult to disprove an invalid test, especially when the test is based on a new construct.

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