Simple psychology for daily life: Hot hand phenomenon
‘Hot hand’ is the idea that an effort will be more likely to succeed if the previous attempts were successful. The concept has been around for decades, though has been a point of contention among the academic community.
The hot hand phenomenon is closely tied to basketball, and that’s where most research on it takes place. The general attitude towards hot hand has been one shifting from it being a fallacy to being a real phenomenon, with free throw statistics being a key supporting influence.
Hot hand should be tied to skill-based activities influenced by the actor’s mental state. In that way, hot hand may be related to a placebo effect and a flow state. Examples of where it may apply include:
- Shooting a basketball
- Putting in golf
- Firing a rifle accurately at a firing range
- Striking the correct keys on a piano
Each of these takes place in an environment with very little outside influence on the outcome. Internal feedback on the action and result needing to be replicated don’t need to take into account variables outside of the actor’s control.
It’s important to acknowledge that hot hand cannot influence elements of chance or entropy. For that reason, it shouldn’t be applied when considering many forms of gambling not tied to an actor’s performance; doing so enters the realms of the gambler’s fallacy.
